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EPAC Tropical Action 2011


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NOAA releases 2011 EPAC Hurricane Season Outlook...

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today announced that climate conditions point to a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 5 percent probability of an above normal season, a 25 percent probability of a near normal season and a 70 percent probability of a below normal season.

Allowing for forecast uncertainties, seasonal hurricane forecasters estimate a 70 percent chance of 9 to 15 named storms, which includes 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 3 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110519_eastpacifichurricaneoutlook.html

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NOAA releases 2011 EPAC Hurricane Season Outlook...

http://www.noaanews....aneoutlook.html

Generally goes with the above normal Atlantic view.

A late Nino would be great fun, a tropical storm or two for Texas, a Florida and/or Central America-Mexico chase for Josh, and then an October landfalling storm with mid level remains coming right over Texas.

How many times have we discussed Rosa on the local forum? Dozens? Hundreds?

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I just noticed, see above, the CIMMS TPW loop our local met WxMan57 likes so much, you can actually see the West to East flow South of the monsoon trough in the Pacific.

I still think it may get interesting when the moisture surge over South America reaches the monsoonal trough. GFS kind of 'meh' about it.

Canadian develops something, not from the moisture surge I see on the TPW image.

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90E has been declared...

avn-l.jpg

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF

TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS

IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

post-32-0-41046200-1306180798.gif

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA

LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE

DIMINISHED...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE

IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY

WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

post-32-0-46584700-1306756261.gif

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That Kelvin wave we're talking about the Atlantic thread is going to move through the EPAC first. The GFS and UKMet are both sniffing out genesis over the weekend near 105W and then taking the system NNW. This is the first legit shot for genesis in the EPAC this year.

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That Kelvin wave we're talking about the Atlantic thread is going to move through the EPAC first. The GFS and UKMet are both sniffing out genesis over the weekend near 105W and then taking the system NNW. This is the first legit shot for genesis in the EPAC this year.

post-32-0-19150100-1306841581.gif

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The 12Z GFS continues to advertise TC genesis this weekend. What is interesting via that model is the area of lower pressure left behind near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and some translation over to the BoC. Something to watch in the days ahead.

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HWRF run for 93L picks up on future Adrian...:scooter:

GFS and UKMet kinda delay genesis by a day or two today, but still show a decent system by Tuesday next week. Euro still says nyet. I'm still banking on the Kelvin wave passage this weekend and siding with the GFS/UKM.

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There looks to be a very broad turning down there this morning-- but no lemon from the NHC:

Models have really backed off on any development. It looks like multiple centers of low pressure form as the Kelvin wave passes by, but no one center become dominant.

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR

FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT

REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

post-32-0-39112300-1307210870.gif

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One thing I should say... Early-season landfalls are very unusual in the EPAC, as cyclones tend to move generally W (and fish) until around Sep, when some start recurving toward the MX coast. In terms of major landfalls, Oct is actually peak time over here; with a few exceptions, almost all 100-kt+ cyclones have hit the coast in Oct.

That having been said, there've been a few Jun/Jul landfalls in the last couple of decades. Notice that two happened within a week of each other in 1996:

Cosme 1989 - 22 Jun - Cat 1 (980 mb/70 kt)

Calvin 1993 - 07 Jul - Cat 2 (973 mb/85 kt)

Alma 1996 - 24 Jun - Cat 2 (973 mb/90 kt)

Boris 1996 - 29 Jun - Cat 1 (980 mb/80 kt)

Given these climo realities, my expectations are appropriately managed this time of year.

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Oooh, surprise-- we have a mandarin. Cool.

Still no Invest for it, though.

Now we do...

BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_ep912011.investFSTDARU0400100000201106041836NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011060418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912011EP, 91, 2011060418, , BEST, 0, 106N, 982W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

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yo Adrian...:scooter:

WHXX01 KMIA 041848
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC SAT JUN 4 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912011) 20110604 1800 UTC

       ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
       110604  1800   110605  0600   110605  1800   110606  0600

        LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.6N  98.2W   10.9N  99.0W   11.1N 100.0W   11.3N 101.1W
BAMD    10.6N  98.2W   10.8N  98.6W   11.1N  99.4W   11.4N 100.3W
BAMM    10.6N  98.2W   10.6N  98.6W   10.8N  99.5W   11.1N 100.3W
LBAR    10.6N  98.2W   10.8N  98.4W   11.5N  99.1W   12.7N  99.9W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          42KTS

       ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
       110606  1800   110607  1800   110608  1800   110609  1800

        LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.5N 102.1W   11.9N 103.2W   12.2N 103.6W   13.2N 103.9W
BAMD    11.9N 101.2W   12.8N 103.3W   13.7N 105.6W   14.1N 108.2W
BAMM    11.5N 101.0W   12.0N 102.7W   12.6N 104.1W   13.4N 105.5W
LBAR    14.4N 100.5W   19.4N 101.2W   23.6N 100.7W   24.8N  99.0W
SHIP        53KTS          72KTS          80KTS          81KTS
DSHP        53KTS          72KTS          80KTS          81KTS

        ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.6N LONCUR =  98.2W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   0KT
LATM12 =  10.3N LONM12 =  98.2W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  10.0N LONM24 =  98.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

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