Srain Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Keeping an eye just S of The Gulf of Tehuantepec for early next week. There may be some spin up along the trough during that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 NOAA releases 2011 EPAC Hurricane Season Outlook... NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today announced that climate conditions point to a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 5 percent probability of an above normal season, a 25 percent probability of a near normal season and a 70 percent probability of a below normal season.Allowing for forecast uncertainties, seasonal hurricane forecasters estimate a 70 percent chance of 9 to 15 named storms, which includes 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 3 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110519_eastpacifichurricaneoutlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 NOAA releases 2011 EPAC Hurricane Season Outlook... http://www.noaanews....aneoutlook.html Generally goes with the above normal Atlantic view. A late Nino would be great fun, a tropical storm or two for Texas, a Florida and/or Central America-Mexico chase for Josh, and then an October landfalling storm with mid level remains coming right over Texas. How many times have we discussed Rosa on the local forum? Dozens? Hundreds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I just noticed, see above, the CIMMS TPW loop our local met WxMan57 likes so much, you can actually see the West to East flow South of the monsoon trough in the Pacific. I still think it may get interesting when the moisture surge over South America reaches the monsoonal trough. GFS kind of 'meh' about it. Canadian develops something, not from the moisture surge I see on the TPW image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 90E has been declared... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT MON MAY 23 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 90E has been declared... Defiantly some hints of a circulation on visible, but still not terribly impressive on microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 90E is getting sheared from the northeast, plus there is an abundance of dry air to the north advecting into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Keep an eye SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Could see a spin up in that area if the models are correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 That Kelvin wave we're talking about the Atlantic thread is going to move through the EPAC first. The GFS and UKMet are both sniffing out genesis over the weekend near 105W and then taking the system NNW. This is the first legit shot for genesis in the EPAC this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 That Kelvin wave we're talking about the Atlantic thread is going to move through the EPAC first. The GFS and UKMet are both sniffing out genesis over the weekend near 105W and then taking the system NNW. This is the first legit shot for genesis in the EPAC this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The 12Z GFS continues to advertise TC genesis this weekend. What is interesting via that model is the area of lower pressure left behind near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and some translation over to the BoC. Something to watch in the days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Just following the GFS, if, and it is an if, this can stay close enough to Mexico to avoid winding down and becoming steered shallow, this could be the fairly rare early season Mexico threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 HWRF run for 93L picks up on future Adrian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 HWRF run for 93L picks up on future Adrian... GFS and UKMet kinda delay genesis by a day or two today, but still show a decent system by Tuesday next week. Euro still says nyet. I'm still banking on the Kelvin wave passage this weekend and siding with the GFS/UKM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 There looks to be a very broad turning down there this morning-- but no lemon from the NHC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 There looks to be a very broad turning down there this morning-- but no lemon from the NHC: Models have really backed off on any development. It looks like multiple centers of low pressure form as the Kelvin wave passes by, but no one center become dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The GFS is back on the TC genesis bandwagon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BROWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Oooh, surprise-- we have a mandarin. Cool. Still no Invest for it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 One thing I should say... Early-season landfalls are very unusual in the EPAC, as cyclones tend to move generally W (and fish) until around Sep, when some start recurving toward the MX coast. In terms of major landfalls, Oct is actually peak time over here; with a few exceptions, almost all 100-kt+ cyclones have hit the coast in Oct. That having been said, there've been a few Jun/Jul landfalls in the last couple of decades. Notice that two happened within a week of each other in 1996: Cosme 1989 - 22 Jun - Cat 1 (980 mb/70 kt) Calvin 1993 - 07 Jul - Cat 2 (973 mb/85 kt) Alma 1996 - 24 Jun - Cat 2 (973 mb/90 kt) Boris 1996 - 29 Jun - Cat 1 (980 mb/80 kt) Given these climo realities, my expectations are appropriately managed this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Oooh, surprise-- we have a mandarin. Cool. Still no Invest for it, though. Now we do... BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_ep912011.investFSTDARU0400100000201106041836NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011060418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912011EP, 91, 2011060418, , BEST, 0, 106N, 982W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Now we do... BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_ep912011.investFSTDARU0400100000201106041836NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011060418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912011EP, 91, 2011060418, , BEST, 0, 106N, 982W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Oh, cool-- thanks, dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 yo Adrian... WHXX01 KMIA 041848 CHGE77 TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1848 UTC SAT JUN 4 2011 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912011) 20110604 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 110604 1800 110605 0600 110605 1800 110606 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 10.6N 98.2W 10.9N 99.0W 11.1N 100.0W 11.3N 101.1W BAMD 10.6N 98.2W 10.8N 98.6W 11.1N 99.4W 11.4N 100.3W BAMM 10.6N 98.2W 10.6N 98.6W 10.8N 99.5W 11.1N 100.3W LBAR 10.6N 98.2W 10.8N 98.4W 11.5N 99.1W 12.7N 99.9W SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 110606 1800 110607 1800 110608 1800 110609 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 11.5N 102.1W 11.9N 103.2W 12.2N 103.6W 13.2N 103.9W BAMD 11.9N 101.2W 12.8N 103.3W 13.7N 105.6W 14.1N 108.2W BAMM 11.5N 101.0W 12.0N 102.7W 12.6N 104.1W 13.4N 105.5W LBAR 14.4N 100.5W 19.4N 101.2W 23.6N 100.7W 24.8N 99.0W SHIP 53KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS DSHP 53KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 98.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 98.2W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 2KT LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 98.0W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Wow-- SHIPS is kind of aggro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 I see Adam lurking. I wonder what he's thinking Re: 91E. Scott just sent me a quick eMail telling me to really keep an eye on it, due to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 18Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Sweet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 yo...Adrian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 This > 93L.. Come on Adrian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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