HurricaneJosh Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow-- looking pretty good if you ask me. I'm really liking how it's shaping up. AussieStromGirl, you really ought to stay vigilant, as the forecast trend has been further N, more in your direction. Sorry about the confusion before-- Brownsville is a city in extreme-S Texas, at the Mexican border. By the way, what is your name? Whatever it is, I'm sure it's shorter to type than your screen name! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ah, OK-- makes sense. It's like when one of our Caribbean Cruisers stays W rather than bending poleward. Always a good sign if you want a big landfall. Yep that's a large 594 dm ridge to the south of the system. Wouldn't be surprised to see the landfall area nudged even a bit further north of Cairns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow-- looking pretty good if you ask me. I'm really liking how it's shaping up. AussieStromGirl, you really ought to stay vigilant, as the forecast trend has been further N, more in your direction. Sorry about the confusion before-- Brownsville is a city in extreme-S Texas, at the Mexican border. By the way, what is your name? Whatever it is, I'm sure it's shorter to type than your screen name! Hi Josh I think I better go and get some stuff......when Larry went through some people had no power for a month the locals are telling me.....(I know I said I wouldn't listen to the media again - HOWEVER - they are now saying this system has the potential to be a Cat 5 before it crosses the coast (not sure what that is on your scale)..... Also our property apparently lost 600 trees during Larry - well at least I have 600 less trees to worry about....Anyway everything will be OK - we just have to make sure we are prepared for the worst and we'll expect the best. Oh by the way my name is Mardi.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yep that's a large 594 dm ridge to the south of the system. Wouldn't be surprised to see the landfall area nudged even a bit further north of Cairns. Yep-- that seems to be the trend. The worst-possible track for Cairns would be a landfall just N of the city, as they would be in the much stronger S eyewall. I say "much stronger" because this cyclone is going to be really trucking along when it comes ashore, and that fast motion is really going to augment winds in the left side. Wait-- is this Jim, from San Diego? I just realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yep-- that seems to be the trend. The worst possible track for Cairns would be a landfall just N of th city, as they would be in the much stronger S eyeball. I say "much stronger" because this cyclone is going to be really trucking along when it comes ashore, and that fast motion is really going to augment winds in the left side. Wait-- is this Jim, from San Diego? I just realized. Indeed, although it might also be good news in that the winds will be blowing offshore rather than onshore. Pick your poison, haha. And yep this is Jim from San Diego. I'm in college at Berkeley now, thus the location change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hi Josh I think I better go and get some stuff......when Larry went through some people had no power for a month the locals are telling me.....(I know I said I wouldn't listen to the media again - HOWEVER - they are now saying this system has the potential to be a Cat 5 before it crosses the coast (not sure what that is on your scale)..... Also our property apparently lost 600 trees during Larry - well at least I have 600 less trees to worry about....Anyway everything will be OK - we just have to make sure we are prepared for the worst and we'll expect the best. Oh by the way my name is Mardi.... Nice to meet you, Mardi. The media is correct-- it could be very strong. A Cat 5 on your scale is a Cat 4 or 5 on ours, depending n how strong it is-- either way, a really intense cyclone! You should definitely stock up on supplies and prepare for a long power outage. I'm sure the supermarkets the are complete zoos right now. What is the name of your town again? Or are you outside of Innisfail...? I want to see exactly where you are in relation to the expected crossing point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Indeed, although it might also be good news in that the winds will be blowing offshore rather than onshore. Pick your poison, haha. Huh? Dude, this is the S Hemisphere. The strongest winds will be left of center, and those winds will be blowing onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Huh? Dude, this is the S Hemisphere. The strongest winds will be left of center, and those winds will be blowing onshore. I got my Hemispheres mixed up. Bonehead mistake. My bad. Thanks for the correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The lack of microwave coverage since 14z is very annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The lack of microwave coverage since 14z is very annoying It does seem that the windsat pass confirms that the storm underwent a premature EWC thanks to the dry air intrusion earlier. You can still see some remnants of the inner eyewall. The good news for Yasi is that it seems that the dry air is mixing out rather quickly now, with a nice plume of deeper moisture surrounding the storm now. Thus, we should see intensification quite soon if not already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Cairns... It's a city of ~164K people, popular with tourists. An intense cyclone making a direct hit on the city would be serious business. Note the town just a bit S of Cairns-- Innisfail. That was the site of Larry 2006's landfall-- another intense storm to hit this region. The poor old tourists are in a bit of a panic.....people are actually trying to get to Brisbane to get away from the storm. A lot of them came up here to get away from the recent floods and now they have to go back down to escape the cyclone....I wonder if they will come back to Australia in wet season? Anyway Josh I sent you a PM so you check out where I am on the maps. Hard to believe I could flood here but that is the lastest warning from local authorities so I better listen..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ok then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We'll be getting a good MW pass from TERRA at 0z soon. In the mean time, we have this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 JTWC bumped Yasi up to 100 kts at 0z, while the Aussies kept it at 85 kts. Five-ish knots difference isn't a big deal. Should be at least 105-110 when I get up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i'm okay with calling it a 100kts now...awesome outflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 another cinnamon bun phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Serious, serious situation-- yikes. It looks like a very intense (Cat-4 USA) cyclone is making a beeline for the city of Cairns! Latest JTWC forecast brings the cyclone ashore near Cairns at ~12Z tomorrow with winds of 125 kt (1-min). Latest BoM forecast brings it ashore near Cairns at ~15Z tomorrow with winds of at least 105 kt (10-min), or 120 kt (1-min). So the agencies are in near-perfect agreement Re: landfall location, timing, and intensity. Just wow. By the way, we were discussing the rather lukewarm SSTs yesterday. The BoM makes an interesting remark Re: that topic in the Technical Bulletin (their Discussion): Further intensification can be expected with low shear, upper outflow environment persisting until landfall. SSTs are slightly lower on the forecast track to about 28C but this may not be a sufficient to inhibit intensification. As we've seen time and time again, it ain't just about those SSTs, I guess. For good reason, a large portion of th Queensland coast is now under a Cyclone Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 I got my Hemispheres mixed up. Bonehead mistake. My bad. Thanks for the correction. No prob. Happens to the best of us. The poor old tourists are in a bit of a panic.....people are actually trying to get to Brisbane to get away from the storm. A lot of them came up here to get away from the recent floods and now they have to go back down to escape the cyclone....I wonder if they will come back to Australia in wet season? Anyway Josh I sent you a PM so you check out where I am on the maps. Hard to believe I could flood here but that is the lastest warning from local authorities so I better listen..... OK, I found your location on the map. The current forecast track has the center passing right over Atherton, meaning you would be just S of that. As I mentioned above, towns just S of the center-- in the S eyewall-- will experience the highest winds, so you really need to be ready, Mardi! This path would mean a direct hit for you. JTWC bumped Yasi up to 100 kts at 0z, while the Aussies kept it at 85 kts. Five-ish knots difference isn't a big deal. Should be at least 105-110 when I get up tomorrow. Yep. i'm okay with calling it a 100kts now...awesome outflow Well, finally. another cinnamon bun phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 No prob. Happens to the best of us. OK, I found your location on the map. The current forecast track has the center passing right over Atherton, meaning you would be just S of that. As I mentioned above, towns just S of the center-- in the S eyewall-- will experience the highest winds, so you really need to be ready, Mardi! This path would mean a direct hit for you. Yep. Well, finally. Hi Yeah things are really heating up here. I'm as ready as can be so we'll see if she changes track again before she hits land tomorrow. They say we will start getting wind gusts in the morning so I think tomorrow will be a very interesting day. Makes Anthony look like a baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 The new BoM package is out. It looks like the deepening has leveled off for the time being and the intensity is held at 85 kt (10-min). Some relevant excerpts from the Technical Bulletin: Following a period of intensification overnight, Yasi has maintained intensity in the past 6-12 hours. The environment of low shear and good upper level outflow, assisted by an upper low to the south, is conducive for development, however the system is passing over an area of reduced ocean heat content which may be hindering intensification. ... Further intensification can be expected with low shear, upper outflow environment persisting until landfall. How much influence the ocean heat content has on the intensification process remains a factor of uncertainty. The intensity forecast still brings it up to a whopping 105 kt (10-min) prior to landfall near Cairns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest shot from the Navy/NRL page. Yeah, it's got a slight cinnabun look to it, but if you ask me, that's a d*mn healthy cyclone: the core looks solid and the outflow is terrific in all quads, except maybe only "good" in the SW. It certainly looks deserving of the JTWC's current assessment: 100 kt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 YASI IS LARGE AND POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSES A SERIOUS THREAT TO NORTH QUEENSLAND COMMUNITIES The Cyclone will continue to intensify and move in a west-southwesterly direction overnight. DAMAGING winds with gusts to 90 km/hr are expected to develop on the islands during Wednesday morning, then extend onto the coast during the day, and further inland across the northern tropical interior overnight. Between Cooktown and Ingham these winds will become DESTRUCTIVE with gusts in excess of 125km/hr on Wednesday afternoon and VERY DESTRUCTIVE with gusts above 200 km/hr between Port Douglas and Cardwell during the evening as the cyclone approaches. These VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds will extend onto the coastal ranges including the Atherton Tablelands on Wednesday evening. As the centre approaches and crosses the coast sea levels between Cairns and Townsville will rise significantly above the normal tide with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low lying areas in coastal parts. Flooding rains will develop from Cooktown to Sarina during Wednesday afternoon and then extend inland overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Interesting-- they've upgraded it to Cat 4 on the AUS scale. And it looks like it's moving fast toward the coast, with landfall expected in a little over 24 hrs. By the way, it looks like it's going to be a nighttime landfall-- a bit of a bummer for chasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AussieStormGirl Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hi Josh and everyone What do you think the chances are of this systems path altering from what is shown above? I know cyclones are weird but you guys know more about these things than the average guy on the couch.... I'm sure you have seen systems this big before but for me this is getting pretty scary....I was excited at first but now reality is starting to hit and I think this is gonna be bloody scary.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hi Josh and everyone What do you think the chances are of this systems path altering from what is shown above? I know cyclones are weird but you guys know more about these things than the average guy on the couch.... I'm sure you have seen systems this big before but for me this is getting pretty scary....I was excited at first but now reality is starting to hit and I think this is gonna be bloody scary.... Cyclones around Australia generally move very unpredictably. However, with this one, the steering pattern seems very strong and well-established-- therefore, you'll find that the BoM, the JTWC, and most of the computer models are in solid agreement Re: the track. Of course, it can always change-- you just never know with these things-- but with this one the confidence in the track forecast is much higher than average. Given this, you should plan for a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 New Zealander Geoff Mackley is chasing Yasi. http://geoffmackley.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 New Zealander Geoff Mackley is chasing Yasi. http://geoffmackley.com/ Oh, that's good. He's a decent chaser. Unfortunately for those chasing it, it looks like it'll be a nighttime landfall. A bit of a bummer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was just coming in to post that there was little doubt that the intensity was going up, but I see the BOM already beat me to it. The eye is starting to clear out and if the donut gets completed, it could go RI prior to landfall, which would be very bad. Of course, there hasn't been microwave for 9 hours <sigh>. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was just coming in to post that there was little doubt that the intensity was going up, but I see the BOM already beat me to it. The eye is starting to clear out and if the donut gets completed, it could go RI prior to landfall, which would be very bad. Of course, there hasn't been microwave for 9 hours <sigh>. RI + a direct hit on a major population center would eclipse Tracy in the annals of Aussie cyclone history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.