TellicoWx

0z suite off and running..good luck everyone. Hopefully good trends moving forward

One of reasons I stopped paying for weather sites and just use the free ones..they all use their own in house algos to ingest the raw data

Can tell there is starting to be a real threat possibly of a major winter impact storm. Eastern valley is having to thread a needle potentially, so to speak...even 93 had to thread the needle.

May need WSW for Jacksonville and Orlando toward end of AIFS run lol

If you like snow in the eastern valley that wasn't it verbatim lol (temps went up a little more, that trend started at 18z yesterday). Will be interesting what the ENS say.

@Carvers Gapyou asked earlier about verification...best could find, not alot out there. This is released once a month i think.

Just came across this...how the GFS is trained vs Euro training.

Think it has become the DGEX lol...adding AI to make it a faster DGEX blows my mind..think they would want it to fix the bias/bugs in it.

Yeah it's been straight Miller B.

If the Baja low doesn't kick, run the risk of moisture being evap by the HP further east you are. HP looks to be coming (various degrees), how/when/if Baja low kicks is the million dollar question.

It rolls out at same time as the regular Euro. Usually right when GFS wraps up

Didn't kick, HP was so strong cut it off. 1040+ parked over TX

If it kicks...look out

Supposedly the official AI version will not include ice in snowfall output. Ice will be included in the total qpf due to (according to the Euro office) it is global, and the grid resolution is too large to correctly show micro climates that determine ice. If a site does it, then it's using a program to determine the graphic.

According to what has been put out on it..we are right at the window where the AI is suppose to eliminate old bias

Key is that HP, if it tries sliding east a little to quickly the nose will try to come up the valley. Feel alot more confident west of the plateau. Euro AI is close to doorstep where it locks itself..next 2-3 runs will be crucial.

Euro AI and GEM Para have alot of similarities...tries to bring the low up into the eastern valley before transferring to SE coast..Miller A/B ish.

Probably why i dont remember it, was deployed to Panama then...thx.

Is there a precedent in the past for a major ice storm that hit a swath say from Little Rock/Memphis, N. MS, Huntsville, Chattanooga? Sorry should know, but my old age is starting to show lol.

Just looking at 12z and wow....not gonna lie tho, the Euro AI has me very nervous. @Holston_River_Ramblermentioned yesterday, when it locks in it tends to tick back to the NW ever so slowly..that would put the southern border counties of TN right under the gun for ice not snow. Next 12-24hrs will tell alot for that model.

One is trying to cut cost...less computing power = save $. Other is trying to actually improve the output. If you run the 500 pattern for last 3 days (starting 10 days out to where it is now), you can see the difference between the two. GFS (and even GEFs) bounces more so to speak. As @Holston_River_Ramblersaid, it's uncanny how little the thing bounces around vs everything else.

Quick breakdown of the two

For those wondering about how Ai is being incorporated by the Euro and GFS, they are being done two separate ways. Both are hybrids of the base system. Where they completely differ on trains of thought is...Euro is used for post processing and corrects the main models known bias's to increase accuracy and precision. The GFS is being implemented to increase the main models speed and lower computing power to save money moving forward. So that's why you hear people such as Spann talking more and more about the Euro Ai and not so much about the GFS Ai. As far as accuracy, what little that has been released publicly is so far the Euro Ai is miles ahead of everything, with only Googles DeepMind teams pure Ai system keeping pace.

6z RGEM slight shift west as well..NE TN folks may end up with a little something after all

3k NAM is either out to lunch or at least trying to bring snow showers/flurries along the TN/NC border counties late this evening/tonight.