brooklynwx99

yeah, i'm pretty confident that we're going to see the NAO drop rather significantly as the Scandi / N ATL trough retrogrades... the WH MJO forcing is a strong precursor to that, as it helps wavebreaking occur in the N ATL

EPS is pretty active after the 22nd or so... there will be chances but it's shut the blinds for the next week

luckily we don't live at 500mb and there can easily be a CAD setup around Christmas with the NW-SE oriented TPV providing confluence

this looks like more than a minor snowfall for most of the metro, honestly. solid WAA with warning criteria likely even being approached in CNJ and parts of LI

that configuration with low heights diving into the N ATL like that from SE Canada is pretty typical of retrograding -NAO events. would line up well with the lag from the SSW we had in late Nov @Stormchaserchuck1

wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if this was partially due to the persistent SPV disruptions and SSW that we've seen over the last three weeks. ensembles are definitely picking up on a wavebreaking -NAO signal with some retrograding Scandi / N ATL high pressure

EPS has really been buckling the trough more in recent runs

definitely seeing a solid trend towards more buckling of the trough, leading to a bump north with precip. i'm thinking that NYC's looking at 2-4"... might honestly be more like 3-6" at this rate. we'll see if these trends persist. if so, we're looking at more of the latter range

merry torchmas!!!

the EPS shows this colder wedging pretty well. might be a bit overdone, but I doubt really torches from NYC north. hell, New England can even see some mixed systems

last time I checked, though, most people don't life 5000 feet above the surface, let alone 15000 feet. if it's NN to BN at the surface in the NE at times, nobody will care if it's +20F over some barren cornfield in NE

yeah, not really a torch pattern with the -WPO encroaching into AK and the TPV elongated like that. sure, it's a torch for 75% of the CONUS, but who cares

you know, some of you keep giving that guy a platform by breathlessly posting about him. we know he sucks

the GFS just has to be tossed assuming the ECMWF holds steady. it is awful with these anafront type systems and is almost always too progressive with them we’re still on track for plowable snowfall in the metro IMO

lol Webb going on his weenie crusade when he hypes just as much as literally everyone else on that platform