brooklynwx99

the weeklies usually defer to ENSO climo as you head later into the winter anyway

personally, I usually go about saying what the pattern may call for (small to mod events) rather than saying that it can't satisfy the upper echelon of events. like how cold is it? will it be dry? what's the mean storm track like? what he said wasn't incorrect... I agree with him. I just think there's more value added saying what you can get or the flavor of the pattern itself rather stating that you won't see a NESIS level event. you will be able to do that 90% of the time

i do think a larger storm is possible after the 15th into early Jan if the -NAO holds on and heights rise out west a bit more with help from tropical forcing, but that's way out there

who was calling for one? I don't think anybody has mentioned the risk for one... seems like light to mod events generally my point was that saying that a pattern isn't conducive for historic storms isn't really saying all that much. you can say that about most patterns. it's like saying most football players won't make it to the NFL. it's implied

to be fair, most patterns are "hostile to KUs." they're rare and require some specific features

i mean, I don't think it's deniable that the pattern looks conducive for at BN temps for most of the month. looks a lot better than it did last week with the GEFS falling flat on its face. then, we should see that pattern continue into mid-late month aside from maybe a brief warmup around the 13th or so snow is more difficult to predict, though. the northern mid-Atlantic should see chances through the month, especially after the 15th IMO you know Tony just regurgitates that stuff though lmao

who are you even following? nobody reputable is calling for that

lol, GEFS capitulating. much lower AO, -NAO signal strengthening too

if a transient AK vortex does develop, it would be due to a strongly negative WPO… you’d be getting modified Siberian air, not a true Pacific onslaught sure, you’d modify eventually, but it wouldn’t be all that bad

quite the trend with the AO… almost getting a -WPO/-NAO ridge bridge at this point. makes sense with the weak SPV

i fucking hate the AIFS dude. it gets humped to no end and people rely on it too much sometimes analysis is just “well, the AIFS shows this, so…” and it’s the worst

no problem, Ray! always glad to be of assistance

you know i’m not IMBY-ing, but i do think that the overall pattern favors less consolidation and an outcome more similar to the foreign guidance. it’s progressive

it’s just way more consolidated with the vort as it moves through the Plains and Midwest

GFS on an island… usually ends only one way