brooklynwx99

also, more of a signal on the EPS for the 15th... makes sense with the PNA spike

lol for the love of god, please verify

if i took a shot every time i heard "fast flow" i would have been dead back in 2023

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing up

probably should have specified the 5-10th but whatever, cold and dry doesn’t do much for me anyway

i think the main thing about Jan so far is that the potential colder start was predicated upon a highly anomalous block forming… now that it isn’t going to form, we’re going to warm up for the first 10 or so days of the month however, the changes in the Pacific have been well modeled between the 10-15th, and those are likely to occur… we should see a -EPO form, which will definitely help our chances, especially if bolstered by +PNA/-NAO like the EPS

i don't know how much we can really move this closer given the lead time, but it's getting a bit precarious

yeah, it really has been like that recently... i can think of multiple times in the last few years. when you're cold, you're cold

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

all three models and their ensembles have the highly anomalous block along with the Pacific trough briefly pumping the PNA... the 6-8th holds legit potential for a large coastal storm given all of the synoptic components involved

yeah, legitimately exciting... that -NAO is uptrending, too. the 5-7th is our first legit shot at a larger region-wide storm. pattern becomes even more favorable after that, too

this poses some promise