brooklynwx99

lol

lol hold that thought

me too. just weird seeing the most skilled piece of guidance we have end up that aggressive. something will give by tomorrow

this would be quite the flop from the AIFS-ENS

spread tightened up

if only it wasn't the highest skill model we have at this range

why even look at the euro do this shit when you have the AIFS

well, euro is a full phaser

its ensemble has consistently been farther north FWIW

this can work. vort is a lot more defined than 00z

still looking like the warmup after the 16th is transient as that -WPO builds poleward and closer to AK while -NAO blocking lingers. we get the TPV back into Canada as well sure, most of the cold is in the west, but this allows for a more active look here

still looking like the warmup after the 16th is transient as that -WPO builds poleward and closer to AK while -NAO blocking lingers. we get the TPV back into Canada as well sure, most of the cold is in the west, but this allows for a more active look here

11-12th is more coherent on the EPS, pops a few coastals

lol models have no clue. this is the run to run change, not regular 500mb

looks like any warmup is pretty brief with the -WPO building poleward... with some Canadian ridging / low NATL heights lingering, would remain conducive to some marginal threats