brooklynwx99

one would think that a Nino developing next year would actually kick things positive for a stretch

I prefer to think of the AO as general blocking, the EPO as an Arctic cold index (independent on where it's going), the PNA as a modulator on where cold ends up in the CONUS, and the NAO as a big storm modifier, at least for NYC south. very difficult to get a MECS+ without a -NAO down here i've done research on preloading patterns and the -NAO really has no impact up by you. it's all forced by the Pacific, as you know (see Jan 2022, Jan 2015)

yeah, this fall is really reminding me of last fall so far. last year continues to be a pretty strong analog

the S/W becoming more amplified over WI leads to increased phasing down the line. the entire tilt of the trough is more negative as a result, leading to a much more tucked and amplified system. this is a solid example of looking at 500mb ensemble trends to see how phasing impacts storm track. with all major ensembles on board inside of D5 (CMC was holding out a bit yesterday and this morning), confidence in this system making significant impacts is a good bit higher

since I almost exclusively use analogs since 2000 with only a few in the 90s, I think the 91-20 climo is okay to use

yeah, not the best job

that's going to flip back over the next couple of weeks with the anomalous ridge developing there

in recent years? when has it ever not been tough to maintain a -EPO indefinitely?

I can assure you, when we do get a good winter from NYC south, I doubt anyone will have actually forecasted it beforehand. including myself

i do think that 2013-14 is a solid analog for other reasons, though... ENSO strength and orientation is a dead ringer along with similar QBO and solar

yeah, lots of warm water off the WC and in the GoA

no chatter about NPAC SSTs lately? PDO rose quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. that's also a ton of warm water off the WC

so you think that we're going to need a major volcanic eruption to see a 50"+ snowfall winter in NYC? I find that hard to believe given how much more moisture is available when cold air is around. seems like a bit of a stretch

is it really? we had four 50"+ winters out of six from 2009-10 to 2014-15. it was ridiculous we also had similarly crappy stretches in the 70s-90s, we just had a lot more 10-15" winters than the single digit ones (not all that much better IMO)

i earnestly believe that some of what's been occurring for the last few years is regression to the mean that 20 year stretch was insane... NYC averaged 34" of snow from 2002-03 to 2020-21. that was not going to last