brooklynwx99

who could have possibly seen this coming

probably close, but no cigar

GFS looks quite a bit more consolidated

it’s an average, you’re going to have members with the gradient south of the mean. not all that surprising

hopefully we can eke something out before the 20th... the pattern looks to open up after the 22nd as more moisture gets involved and cold becomes more entrenched

yeah, the 22-24th is a solid timeframe with established cold air, low heights over SE Canada, and some -NAO/-EPO. can see how you'd get something ejecting out of the west into cold air

when you're forecasting past a week out, using ensembles and focusing on the broader pattern to point out timeframes of interest is generally the way to go. this will be taught in every forecasting classroom on the planet. now that we're a few days later on, we can see that there are two distinct waves rather than a single trough (which, by the way, some OP runs had) this is the way long range forecasting is... the data change sometimes. it doesn't make the process any less valid

why are you like this, dude

yeah that can certainly happen... i think early Feb looks pretty good, though, as the favorable tropical forcing should stick around for a bit based on hovmollers

it seems like the opposite is likely to occur given the tropical forcing and subsequent jet extension all of the ensembles are seeing

we continue to see legit CPAC and WHEM convection show up late month with legit subsidence over the MC, which should help us out. this coincides with impressive WWBs west of the dateline

the GFS has the TPV farther east and the ridge comes over the top, allowing the ULL to dig more compared to the ICON

can’t remember the last time we’ve seen subsidence like this over the MC… straight up P8 forcing late month

this system is honestly annoying the crap out of me at this point and I'd rather just get to the 18th, which has had a better chance all along

lol