brooklynwx99

honest question, is it possible for models in the 1-2 week range to show a pattern that you will actually get excited about?

sure, we can play Monday morning QB and say "nooooo those patterns were actually bad because they didn't produce snow!" but that's disingenuous

not to harp on last year, but models actually did a good job showing the amount of high latitude blocking that developed. to say that a good pattern never developed is just incorrect

explain to me how the pattern from last year never developed. i want receipts

you are just full of surprises

can you post some ensembles to back up your point? or just anything, really

this is a pretty obvious P8 signal. there is very little, if any forcing showing up on the EPS over the Maritime Continent

the PV closer to us has been perturbed already. seems like this should couple pretty well

honest question, why are you even on twitter? I avoid twitter like the plague there are enough knowledgeable people here

the weeklies should not run every day. so stupid

can pretty easily see the N ATL trough feeding back on the Scandi ridge, which then increases heights in the NAO region... this elongates and presses the TPV south

the EPS is just a day or two slower. it gets to the same point with a -NAO developing thanks to Scandi ridging (which is typical of SSW events)

really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region

really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region

really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region