RyanDe680

Have to see how the activity near the river beats up the atmosphere 

Hope this holds.  Compared to the last couple of days.  

LOT indicates that convection development will be underway soon.  SPC says atmosphere is on a downward trend for intensity.  

3 hours ago, KoalaBeer said:

God article by Dr. Marshall Shepard on yesterdays "Bust" talk. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/05/21/three-problems-with-the-word-bust-during-real-time-weather-threats/#77c6058b5338

This was an excellent read, thank you.

It’s getting old.  But at least it’s not 10.  

1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

With the cap eroding quickly these cells are going to take off rapidly.

Cap already looks to be nearly gone.

Incredible set up forming.  Enthusiast optimism at an all time high with hopes of minimal danger to life, but with PDS already coming out, not looking good.  Stay safe.

Maybe if I bump this thread, it will get warmer.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Side note... this system is going to clinch an above average snowfall season at ORD (the whole snow season, not necessarily DJF). 

The irony of that with no snow on the ground as well. 

Bring on the 70s

2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Where in DeKalb County are you? I can forward your report to the office for an LSR if you haven't yet.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I am out in Oak Brook and I see the landscape littered with trees that look like that.  Its going to be a disaster once winds pick up.  The fog has settled on the trees and wires all over here.  

17 hours ago, Maneee said:

I was reading this feeling immense appreciation for LOT. They improve  every single year and they keep us appraised of all forecast changes and thought processes. 

11 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not only is LOT doing a horrendous job, but DVN is following as well.

Ice accums by GBG have exceeded the forecast and are in warning criteria range now.


.

Classic internet posts.

I doubt that would verify with current glacier pack.  Would be foggy though.  

I bailed and went to Florida.  But I am watching it from here.  61 outside now.  Literally over 70 degree difference.  

24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm not going to be critical of decisions made today at my office, was there for the internal discussion, certainly not an easy call. However, personally I would've done the upgrade from Lee and Ogle and eastward to Cook for many of the same reasons mentioned (impacts to rush hour, heavy rates, wind, etc) plus pretty good likelihood of getting warning criteria amounts in well under the typical 6"/12 hour standard. We'll see how it all plays out.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, given this new forecast snowfall from 10 minutes ago, I am not sure why the warnings weren't extended south.  

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

 

Yea Euro sometimes can really be out on it's own and nail it and other times it is out to lunch. I feel this will track near IL-WI border like most models have it. Maybe close to I88. Just hoping I can avoid getting too much rain here

Hard to believe talking about rain and then -25 about 36 hours from them. 

Nudged ever so slightly south..  8-12 has made its way south compared to 36 hours ago...

lol at the people who bailed two days ago. This winter this is what it’s been. Down to the last minute. 

Because of all the Debbie downers in this thread, this will be an over performer for sure. 

18Z GFS looks nearly the same - shifted heavier snows east

NAM looks about the same to a bit north to me...

ORD plumes avg 4" at this point, early out.

I don't understand the moisture rich depictions happening - seems overblown to me.

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z HRRR has the precip minimum right through here.  Hopefully some of the banding can play out a bit differently and it's not quite so bad, but other models are singing a similar tune so this is not out of the realm of possibility by any stretch.  Wouldn't be surprised to only get a few inches from the system snow.

And the other night you were the jackpot.  

What a system. 

If I squint hard I see a flake or two out in Oak Brook, IL.

3 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

Don't count your chickens before they hatch?

There'll be time enough for counting....when the dealin's done?

Never trust a fart?

Well I never said it was going to suck, but I want to see what pans out with the fgen band and the system moisture - try to determine out of curiosity which model was more accurate.