RyanDe680

Going with DAB

28 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 

...of course now we have to go from digital to reality....that's always been a sticking point.

LOL - this.  so true.

Given a lousy season thus far, expectations for a bust are at fresh highs.

Man December was boring.

15 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

GFS, after it finally caved back south, ended up pretty close. A lot of other models underestimated WAA (shocker) and this were way too high on accums on the south end 

 

GFS nailed the totals in the end, the Euro had the track though.

I always enjoy the radical totals that some models spit out...

Anxious to see the actual snowfall map.  Looks like the Euro had the best track of the models but was off on the precip amounts.  As the event got closer the high resolution models also did well.

Euro continues to perform well over the past few winters.  

Temp drop of one degree in about 5 mins. At 35 now

Just a mass of precip heading into south side metro Chicago 

“Patiently waits for cook county folks to throw in the towel”

Just now, Kaner88 said:

Last few posts got me thinking, kinda seems like the stuff moving north towards Chicagoland/Rockford etc might pose a threat of kicking off as rain at first. I say that solely from looking at 22z OBS for the state and not much else, so I may very well be off my rocker, but the possibility is piquing my interest.

I’d say that’s acurate.  Dews here are 34 and temps nearly 36 so it may take a little bit. 

It’s actually warmed here from 33 to 35.  Should drop once the next round shows up. 

BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Winds gusting as high as
  45 mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow.
  Significant drifting of the snow is likely. Total snow
  accumulations of 7 to 11 inches, with localized amounts up to
  13 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...DuPage and Cook Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM CST Monday. Conditions ramping up between 6 PM
  and 9 PM this evening, first across northwest areas

Edit:  ninja’ed

I’ll share my ambient.  

I’m in western springs, IL.  Basically 294 and 88.

https://dashboard.ambientweather.net/devices/public/c03162e2231692d750e01c90e9949589

Blizzard warning, risk of storms.... Great time of the year

Some mixing at I88 and I294 cooridor. 

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
320 AM CST Sun Nov 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...
320 AM CST

Today through Monday...

Powerhouse early-season winter storm taking aim on the region
later today and tonight. Travel conditions are expected to become
hazardous and potentially life-threatening across parts of
northern Illinois, as a combination of intense heavy wet snowfall
and 45 mph winds produce snow covered roads, blowing and drifting,
and poor visibility. Winter Storm Warnings and advisories remain
largely unchanged in coverage, though have pushed start/end times
back a few hours in some cases based on consistent model trend of
a slower storm system. In addition, new Winter Weather Advisory
headlines are in place for Lake and Porter counties in northwest
Indiana later tonight, and Lakeshore Flood Warning has been
extended into Lake County IL (see separate paragraph at end of
discussion). Total snowfall amounts in the 8-12+ inch range are
expected across north central and portions of northeast IL, with a
amounts dropping off quickly along the I-55 corridor eastward.

Vigorous mid-level short wave was evident across the western
Plains in early morning water vapor imagery. Associated 995 mb
surface low was analyzed near Wichita Kansas as of 08Z/2 AM CST.
00Z guidance in pretty good agreement in tracking this low to near
St. Louis by this evening, then east-northeast to the Champaign
IL/Lafayette IN area by midnight tonight. National radar mosaic
depicts a west to east oriented band of precipitation developing
from southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa, where low level
cyclonic flow was inducing warm/moist advection and ascent in
response to the short wave. The resulting tightening of the
elevated baroclinic zone (frontogenesis) is progged to extend
eastward into northern IL by mid-morning, producing a region of
banded precipitation along and north of I-88 across northern IL.
Forecast soundings depict an above freezing layer between 900-800
mb, which will likely result in precipitation initially falling as
a mix of rain/snow in this west-east band this morning/midday. As
large scale forcing for ascent increases early this afternoon
with the approach of the short wave, wet-bulb and dynamic cooling
is expected to cool the column enough to change precipitation over
to all snow across north central Illinois. Farther east,
precipitation is expected to begin primarily as rain,
transitioning to rain/snow and then all snow into this evening.

Snowfall is expected to intensify across north central IL late
this afternoon, as moist ascent strengthens in response to
increasing vorticity advection, very strong mid-level
frontogenesis, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong upper level
divergence associated with coupled left front/right rear jet
streak regions. Various explicit model guidance and high-res
ensemble statistical output indicate the potential for snowfall
rates of 1-2 inches per hour, persisting across a good portion of
northern Illinois through the evening hours. During the same
period, the tightening of the surface pressure gradient north of
the low track will result in northeast winds increasing to near 30
mph, with gusts to 45 mph likely. The combination of heavy
snowfall and very strong gusty winds will undoubtedly produce
rapidly deteriorating travel conditions, which may very well
become life-threatening due to poor visibility in heavy falling
snow and blowing and drifting. In addition, the combination of
very heavy wet snow and strong winds may result falling tree limbs
and power outages. Near white-out conditions will be possible,
and an upgrade to Blizzard Warnings is not out of the question
later today, though in collaboration with surrounding WFO`s we
elected to allow day shifts to make that call depending on how the
storm develops. The strong deformation band and most intense
snowfall gradually shifts from west to east across the forecast
area through late this evening, eventually moving east of the area
early Monday morning. This will allow snowfall to taper off and
end across north central IL prior to daybreak, and shortly
thereafter in the east. The exception will be across northwest
Indiana, where lake effect snow showers may persist during the
morning. As indicated in the first paragraph above, total snowfall
is expected to range from 8-12+ inches across much of north
central and far northeast IL, with amounts quickly dropping off
near the I-55 corridor and areas south and east. Winter storm
warnings are in effect generally for areas in the 6+ inch amounts,
with winter weather advisories farther southeast where 2-5 inch
amounts are expected.

Snow will taper off quickly across the east Monday morning, with
a few snow showers lingering through perhaps midday for Lake and
Porter counties in northwest Indiana. Winds will gradually
diminish and turn more west-northwesterly by afternoon. It will be
chilly with highs only in the mid 20s to low 30s, and wind chills
in the teens.

15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Well, the 3km NAM just made the model porn hall of fame for this area.  3" of precip, and 2ft of snow.  Obviously way overdone, but man this storm is really turning out to be something special. 

That cut off

GFS a hair north with the heavier stuff. Expands it out too. 

30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Omega, you said?

Northern IL

Beautiful. I can’t remember when I’ve seen such verticals like that. 

9 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

And if it doesn't, then the chances decrease.. 

Mother nature keeps a tight calendar.

Also, quoting LOT's winter outlook that I was reading last week:

"If a signifiant snowfall occurs prior to start of December, probability of above normal snowfall for the fall-spring season will increase."

Could shape up to be a fun winter.

Euro seems wider, still narrow cut off, but spreads it south...  Amazed at the small scale size of the storm and the punch that it will pack.

I think that 4-10" is a good call.  Lakefront will miss out on a lot of that but the cut off is still nice to the north.

7 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

Nah, last few winters for sure, I know it's not a done deal.  For awhile it seemed like it.

I was thinking the last few years the euro had a better hold on these storms. 

At least that model hasn’t been a budget cut victim. 

For the past # of winters, doesn’t the euro always win?  I feel like this has been the 1,000,000,000,000th time

That and I think there's convection too far south already in IA/IL thats going to dampen the whole thing.