Instability will be extreme. Winds will be moderate. May be a connection for a while from georgian Bay. Only draw back is ample background moisture. But its not bone dry either.
Not a huge hit at once but will pile up over time. Would not surprise me a bit if someone gets over a foot just from lake effect. My best guess would target webster penfield walworth ontario.
Rgem through 84 just as artic push comes in. Shows storm snow. Minor break then a period of lake snow monroe wayne County. The at end of run the artic push and renewed lake snow starting.