NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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12z GEFS was a fairly significant improvement on the 06z for those trying to find hope. while I'm on it, the CMC ens (looking at the individual members is loltastic) also were a significant jump
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Really weird evolution but 00z GFS gets the job done as far as first flakes go. Would be a nice way to start the season verbatim, and pretty chilly in the immediate aftermath of the snow.
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The CMC ens I posted as a joke in the Digital Snow Thread really like that one, actually. That’s where it gets the multiple MECS/HECS from.
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Don't have the skills for analysis but here is the mean. Could be worse.
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itshappening.gif
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Fall 2019 Preseason Digital Snow Thread
NorthArlington101 replied to George BM's topic in Mid Atlantic
CMC ens are wack. -
Fall 2019 Preseason Digital Snow Thread
NorthArlington101 replied to George BM's topic in Mid Atlantic
Just for posterity: nice consensus 7 days out for some snow, especially given its November. -
Don’t get me wrong, I agree that it’s very unlikely that most of the Piedmont, not to mention the coastal areas, get a snowstorm in November. However, we definitely have the cold and pattern to pull it off. Skepticism is obviously warranted but I have a ton of fun following storms. Tracking is half — if not more of — the fun for me.
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No comment on the sizable snowstorm next Tuesday on the GFS? Pretty sweet run with a lot of upside if the storm takes off a little earlier. Whoops, people mentioned it. Didn’t load on my phone. Either way... sick run.
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
NorthArlington101 replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
BWI: 22.1" DCA: 16.6" IAD: 23.2" RIC: 11.6" Tiebreaker (SBY): 8" -
It definitely makes me reevaluate my subscription to WeatherBell. I still want ens products though, so I might be stuck.
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GFS is still very suppressed. Congrats Carolinas.
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12z GEFS was a respectable improvement over 6z for the northerners in the forum.
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My brief amateur take on the 12z GFS is that not much changed other than the timing -- was earlier and hence less impactful for Central VA. Precip actually took a slight jog north, looked kinda EURO-y but more south for most of the run until it flipped to a NC snowstorm at the end.
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If nothing else this is a good way to learn about the strengths and weaknesses of the new FV3 GFS. Leans very suppressed/squashed compared to CMC/EURO/ICON at the moment.
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Meh, a little bit. I recognize the unlikelihood and definitely wont be disappointed when this fades into oblivion but the window is there and the GEFS/EPS have had a decent amount of support for first flakes over the past couple of runs. We only get a dozen (maybe a couple dozen) or so shots at cold and precip a year so I’ll pay attention to a look in November if a global model has a storm in 6-7 days. Keeps me entertained.
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Now that’s exactly where I want a storm. Loved that GFS run. Definitely some Central VA bias but a good step forward for all. Legit window here for everyone. Would like to see a slight shift south on the Euro or CMC. Changed the map because that old one was bugged out... 42” in NC lol.
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I think this is the first winter with the fully upgraded FV3. We’ll find out, lol.
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People forget that Central VA cashed out. Got a 1’ in Cville, I think even up to Fredericksburg got 5”. It’s definitely a mental game but I like seeing a suppressed look right now. Better than SNE model porn.
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right where we want it
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Not bad for Nov 9th. SNE made a thread already lol.
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Still something there...
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It’s about time! Let greater snow map spam begin.
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I’m in Charlottesville for school now. Hopefully my signature is updated. I recognize my name is confusing.
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Post storm wind gusts have been much more intense then actual storm, FWIW. Gotta be gusting 45-50.
