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LVLion77

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  1. LVLion77
    South Mountain runs southwest to northeast on the southern side of that map. South of 78 on the west side of the map and along 78 on the east side. But south Mtn is roughly where this cutoff is. I am on the north side of South Mountain and I’ve seen mostly just light snow. As drought guy has indicated in the past, the mountain does serve as a barrier or enhancer of various types of weather, winter or summer. It’s an interesting place. .
  2. LVLion77
    Yeah, and your concern was valid. That area is extremely vulnerable to flooding. Part of it is due to all of the development in the area and associated runoff. But importantly, a very prominent Lehigh Valley landowner in the past offered to dredge that creek system to minimize flooding, but some level of government (cannot remember if it was local or state) would not give them indemnification. It’s too bad as it would’ve solved a lot of issues in that area.
  3. LVLion77
    That’s funny, but I do not know his house. I remember him posting about his displeasure with the NWS not providing ample flood warnings along that creek since he lives along it.
  4. LVLion77
    I am halfway up the mountain. He lives along spring creek. .
  5. LVLion77
    Oh boy, you, drought dude, and myself are all relatively close within 5 miles.
  6. LVLion77
    Where are you? I’m in Macungie and only have 1 inch at this point.
  7. LVLion77
    Yes it is very interesting to watch it happen. Definitely having trouble getting heavier bands north and west of nj from the main the coastal low, but there are concurrently areas in central Pa that are doing better than expected in that persistent convergence band from Hagerstown to north of State College, who is interestingly under a wsw. .
  8. LVLion77
    Just 20 minutes since my last post, Snow is picked up and intensity and starting to accumulate more substantially on the grass and starting on the paved surfaces. Trying to nowcast this is still difficult looking at the radar. .
  9. LVLion77
    Light snow and 33 here in the sw LV. Just starting to dust non-paved surfaces. I have a feeling I’m going to be rather jealous of the snow totals coming out of Jersey tonight!
  10. LVLion77
    I think you being further east would be closer to 8” in Tatamy and I would be closer to 4” in Macungie. There is a “that’s what she said” joke somewhere in there. [emoji3]
  11. LVLion77
    I have dropped from 36.8 to 35.1 and have wet snow flakes again.
  12. LVLion77
    Nothing crazy but some nice steady banding setting up in central PA. Wonder if places like State College or Altoona do better than forecasted?
  13. LVLion77
    I do not think it is unreasonable to be highly skeptical of the NWS forecast for the Lehigh Valley. 10-20” is wishcasting. 4-8” is much more reasonable in my opinion.
  14. LVLion77
    Same here in the Lehigh Valley. .
  15. LVLion77
    I’m not sure we’re in a nowcast timeframe yet.
  16. LVLion77
    This may be the widest range of forecasts I have seen for a snowstorm in quite some time up here in the Lehigh Valley. The NWS is all in at 10-20”. The Weather Channel is basically out - 4-6”. AccuWeather splits the difference at 6-10”. Local meteo at WFMZ is all in as well at 8-14”.
  17. LVLion77
    Hope you’re right! Definitely one of the warmer big storm setups.
  18. LVLion77
    You make a good point. The more I look at this the more I realize the bust potential here is enormous, both inland and in the jackpot area closer to the coast. I really do not think the models take the warm temperatures into account. Even here in the LV we may not hit 32 as a low. The coast has a high likelihood of not dropping below the mid 30s. Sure, it will snow and accumulate, but what will the ratios be?
  19. LVLion77
    Freehold, NJ is my guess. I worry about the beach towns getting started later with accumulating snows when winds turn from off the water to the north as air temps are much warmer with this storm. I think central NJ does best and starts cutting dramatically NW. I feel my area of the Lehigh Valley is 6-10”.
  20. LVLion77
    Excellent, yeah, the B’s have so many moving components, especially the handoff between the primary and the new coastal that it makes it so difficult. Although we certainly have cashed in with both over the years, and have had much heartbreak with both!
  21. LVLion77
    So this looking like a classic Miller A, correct? The Miller A’s are easier to forecast and conceptualize.
  22. LVLion77
    This cannot be my imagination, light ZR here near Allentown. A light glaze on cleaned surfaces. Didn’t even think it was remotely possible at 12°. What a weird storm.
  23. LVLion77
    100%! 8 hours too late.
  24. LVLion77
    If only this was all snow! 2 ft for sure. Having trouble rectifying all sleet at 9 degrees for hours.
  25. LVLion77
    I was all snow for a minute and now all sleet. We are the diving line up here in the LV. .
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