radarman

Drought affects farmers on short time scales, and they struggle to make ends meet year to year. Too wet, too dry, etc. Granted, they signed up for it to a certain extent in the fickle weather of SNE. But it is a big deal out here, particularly this year. The cities probably don't care.

Even this far west seems borderline. I don't even care if a line rapidly weakens with loss of daytime heating, if it can just push through enough to give us a drink. Or maybe we can get lucky with a quick hit convective shower as the HRRR sort of puts in play.

Just a gut feeling but it's a little early for fronts to be hanging up and training I think, especially with this bully airmass that'll be dropping in. I think it'll push through a little faster than progged with an attendant wind threat. If it does stay back we'd at least have a shot at something discrete popping out ahead during the afternoon, which we always say... For whatever it's worth.

maybe can't rule out some kind of popcorn pulsers with enough solar insolation and totally uncapped. Big fat rain drops that so look like they want to flip to hail, but then don't. Anyway, we can still cheer on hopes for a marginally severe line on Friday in the meantime.

Pretty strongly worded AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 206 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020 .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY/ THE OVERNIGHT PLAINS CONVECTION MADE A RUN AT NORTH TEXAS, BUT ALL THAT REMAINS IS A STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO DENTON TO BONHAM. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS GRAVITY WAVES CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CUMULUS FIELD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH IS A SIGN OF A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THIS INVERSION IS VERIFIED ON RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS, AND WE'LL BE SENDING UP A BALLOON WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO TO SAMPLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC AND MOISTURE PROFILE. OBVIOUSLY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE AN IMPORTANT MESOSCALE FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT NOT ONLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION, BUT ALSO STORM MODE AND HAZARDS. THE BACKING OF WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS SERVED TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES NOTABLY, RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT NOW SUPPORTIVE OF PROLONGED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE INSOLATION HAS BEEN EXCELLENT ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH MLCAPE LIKELY TO EXCEED 3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND PREDICTION OF SLOW EASTWARD RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS, IT IS LIKELY THAT ACTUAL SUPERCELL MOTIONS WILL BE EVEN MORE RIGHTWARD OR DUE SOUTH. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS IT WILL IMPACT THE STORM COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WE'VE SEEN THE HRRR TREND TOWARD MORE SUPERCELLULAR COVERAGE WHICH IS INHERENTLY MORE SCATTERED AND THEREFORE SUGGESTS LESS STORM COVERAGE THAN A MULTICELL CLUSTER OR LINE WOULD HAVE PRODUCED. THIS MORE SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE IS ALSO VERIFIED BY THE WOFS WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTING THE SUPERCELL THREAT PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS WHERE WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW FAILED ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION. SINCE MATURE STORM MOTION MAY TEND TO TAKE IT SOUTHWARD, IT MAY BE A WHILE BEFORE STORMS CAN INITIATE FARTHER EAST (EAST OF I-35/I-35E AND NORTH OF I-30) WHERE STORM COVERAGE IS MORE IN QUESTION. SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM. WE'VE AGREED TO WATCH HOW TRENDS EVOLVE BEFORE GOING TOO FAR EAST WITH A WATCH. LIKEWISE WE'RE CONCERNED THAT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AROUND SUNSET, SO THIS WATCH EXPIRING AT 8 PM ALLOWS AN ASSESSMENT OF THOSE TRENDS THIS EVENING. FOR NOW THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS LIKE VERY LARGE HAIL - POSSIBLY UP TO BASEBALL SIZE - AS WE ANTICIPATE THAT WE'LL HAVE MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAN WE WERE EARLIER. GIVEN THE ALREADY SLOW MOTION OF SUPERCELLS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME NEARLY STATIONARY OR STALLED CELLS EITHER WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED MULTI-INCH RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. BY THIS EVENING WE DO EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND EVENTUALLY ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL SHOULD DEVELOP TO HELP SEND CELLS SOUTHEASTWARD EITHER AS A MULTICELL CLUSTER OR BROKEN LINE. THE EVENING HOURS PROBABLY REPRESENT MOST OF THE DFW METROPLEX'S BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF I-20 BY MIDNIGHT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT THE INTENSITY/COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF I-20, AS THIS IS ADVERTISED BY A COUPLE OF THE MODELS. SO WE CAN'T SAY FOR SURE THAT ONCE THE FIRST ROUND MOVES THROUGH THAT NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE DONE WITH THE EVENT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ON SATURDAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS LOW BUT ADVERTISED LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT IT SHOULD BE VERY MUGGY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING. TR.92

Quabbin allowing for boats as of tomorrow, but NOT renting boats. Which sucks for those of us without a boat.

Mt. Ascutney might be in the running.

Yeah the cell that went through S NH did look impressive. We were seeing high velocities and some sheat on the edge of our range particularly through Richmond. But our view isn't great up there by any means. This was the spinup sig that went through Whately, MA I mentioned. The line was moving pretty fast so a lot of the couplet is obscured by mean storm motion. But we did see a tightening that I think is real and not a radar artifact. And the reflectivity signature is compelling, especially at the end as it crosses the river, though it lags the most notable rotational sig. Not that it really matters... Straight line winds caused the vast majority of the damage.

raining in a north of the pike event = honorary member

Trees, branches and wires down everywhere in S Amherst and BTown

Just ripped through campus. Awesome winds! Virtually no thunder

Lots of your typical, to slightly more than typical, spinup sigs on the leading edge. Folks commenting on NWS chat. Most are probably fairly innocuous, with trees and branches maybe coming down here and there. The one in Whately caught my eye a little bit.

At least locally, it might be March 2014. There was a tornado on the 27th that touched down in VT, crossed NH, and touched down again in ME. And I think about a week prior there was a pretty decent sized snowstorm for Maine. They had a snowy month in general. Two weeks prior all of NNE got a big storm on the 12th and 13th. Otherwise I'd probably go with somewhere on the front range or something.

50kts at ALB

October 2018... tornado on the cape, snow in C Mass. Also, Feb 2017, with a tornado out this way in the valley.

WWUS40 KWNS 151929 WWP7 TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020 WT 0187 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27035 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

tornado watch coming

18z special sounding was launched at ALY

I presume it'll clear out completely in a bit, but some differential heating might not be a bad thing given that the trigger has been in question for this afternoon.

3km nammy does a pretty good job of suppressing action out ahead of the front as Wiz mentioned for lack of a trigger. Weak height rises during the course of the entire day. Granted it does get fairly unstable.

Don't get your hopes up too high LOL welcome

Averaging 18+mph at Boston for a month and a half seems insane.

Yes. This was the spillway last April... Was quite a reversal from the previous summer (2018) when levels were at their lowest since 1966.

The spillway has been ripping pretty good the last few weeks. Can hear it from a good ways across the dam. Not quite as much water coming over as early last April, but certainly a torrent in its own right.