radarman

I'm headed out for it too, and was debating between A Basin and maybe Mary Jane @ Winter Park

We have a radar in Cleburne and got a really close look... Decent storm scale rotation within the line indicative of small hail and reports of such have followed. But not much in the way of notable wind signatures close to the ground. My eyes are currently on E Arlington/Grand Prairie where the strengthening line is starting to interact with moisture streaming north.

47? Wow. CEF 27. Talk about radiators mounting up

what does the green contour in Hampshire county indicate?

As an aside, studies suggest that increased atmospheric moisture content as a result of AGW should actually enhance upward EP flux in the subtropics and polar regions, particularly in the winter.... That's the posited physical mechanism for disturbing the PV (or at least it used it to be). I haven't followed the literature closely enough to see how well the link between snow cover (extent or advance) and +EP flux anomailes has been established over the years... we had some anecdotal evidence of correlation but not what I'd call conclusive, and the physical mechanism explanation could have used some work as well. It also sucked when the Berlin site went down that you used to be able to monitor this stuff with. At any rate, I can't help myself and still check wave 2 plots pretty often through December into Jan, but I've definitely got the feeling that the whole thing is a secondary signal at best as I've watched winters come and go.

This is an admission against interest because I was involved in the development of the October snow cover theory at AER back in the early 2000s... but LOL @ blaming AGW for ruining it. Sample size ruined it. It's simply not a dominant signal. All else being equal and null then sure it probably holds some merit. JMO

The valley lowlands are a bit shy of peak color yet but the last two days have been absolute fall perfection.

Gorgeous sunny morning in the valley, though Btown is still socked in slightly higher up.

Out here, Quabbin was not notably low this year. As was mentioned, late 2016, early 2017 was substantially lower. Parts of 2002 were similar to 2016. 88/89 was dangerously low for safe drinking. But the mid 60s put them all to shame.

just shy of an inch here this morning. Looking forward to some sun tomorrow.

yeah, and then 2.25 days out:

HWRF chokes Ian out with dry air and personally I think there may be something to that idea, even if overdone there.

gotta love a 62mb drop in 4 hours

The globals have depicted hostile conditions on approach to the US mainland really since the tropical wave was first approaching the windward islands. Seems like chasers are always way more impressed by strengthening storms than rapidly weakening ones regardless of how strong they are coming in. This could be the opposite of a Charley or a Michael.

One on top of heaven's gate too:

Very dark here as well. Thunder. Storm looks meh, but it makes for an unusual looking morning.

Few pretty good rumbles, not much of note wind wise.

Granite Gorge under new ownership announced they will be opening for skiing this year. First time in 3 or 4 years.

We've had orb weavers making an appearance for the first time in a few years

our CC is noisier than Nexrad. I should probably smooth it to make it easier to look at. But anyway if you squint there is a drop, though not necessarily a slam dunk.

No, especially when we don't ask them to pay for it. A little IT overhead, but the way NWS budgets and personnel are stretched, I probably shouldn't underestimate that aspect.

Yeah, I don't blame them. No way they could have warned based on the BOX data... they'd be overwarning all the time. Cell that Hubby was referring to further north looked better actually. In Texas the data flows straight into AWIPS and I hear from the weather service if the feed goes down. We've offered it to BOX and ERH but never got serious interest. And let's be honest, the severe out here is ok for SNE, but we aren't Texas, so by and large they don't miss all that much.

The velocity from that loop... couplet is still there even now!