USCG RS

Can you imagine GSP - 1-2" of ice this week. 24-36" of snow next. That's... I mean this is fantasy land but.... Damn

OK.. So for all facing a potential ice storm - I'm sure you have prepared but if you have not: a few things to consider. 1) It is going to be BRUTALLY cold following the conclusion of this storm. If you do not have heat, your house will become cold, and quickly. Make sure you have plenty of layers. If you have a wooden fireplace, be stocked. If you have gas, even without electricity, you can use gas for some things. Sometimes an oven can turn on as well, depending on type. 2) Downed power lines must be treated as live at all times. Even if all power is out, an improperly installed generator can back feed the grid and when it hits a transformer, it can be stepped up to relatively high voltages. 3) Refrigerated foods can last to around 36 hours once the power is out and the refrigerator is not opened much. HOWEVER, if you can put ice in the refrigerator, the air tight seal combined with adding ice will help keep the refrigerator cold. Of course store ice is best, but if you can get some sleet, or even some chips of ice, it can help. Make sure food is covered and outside bins washed off before using or cooking to ensure against contamination. Also use judgement about where you take ice/snow/sleet from. But last resorts are last resorts 4) IF we obtain a crippling amount of ice then expect impacts to linger for weeks, including potential loss of power, diminished or absent emergency services and impassable roads. 5) If you have no heat whatsoever, you can use a vehicle to sit in. Some things to keep in mind, trees and power lines can fall at any time. Keep mind of where the vehicle is In relation. Use your judgement. Also, if in a garage, ensure the door is open if you are going to run the vehicle. If possible, have the tail pipe pointing out of where the garage door opens (ie don't back the vehicle in for this storm). In case anyone forgets, garage doors always have manual releases. Be mindful of your gas and ration as necessary. Turn the vehicle on, let it get warm and then stop running. As it gets colder, turn it back on. Again, judgement. Be safe out there. Hopefully we find a miracle way to warm up and/or miss the ice. Assuming not however, this storm must be treated as if we are going to get the worst of the potential impacts and prepare as such. If we don't, then good. If we do, at least be prepared as much as possible.

For those who were asking WSW vs ISW, the warnings depend on the primary impact. If a snow and Ice mix is the impact then it's normally a WSW. If ice is the primary impact it's an ISW. There is some discretion, but this weekend is a good example. While it may snow/sleet 1-3", the main show is ice at 0.3-0.8". This is why an ISW was issued vs a WSW.

Ice storm warning issued for much of the area. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ106&warncounty=SCC045&firewxzone=SCZ106&local_place1=Greenville SC&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning&lat=34.8387&lon=-82.3716

From a physics point of view, that makes sense actually. The sleet is latching onto a a surface that has more surface area plus easier to bond together. If there's no snow, however, IP do not really present an issue to powerlines and trees.

Oof. After a potential ice storm. That's... I hope OEM is gearing up for that.

To an extent. But not really. Models are a tool. If you have an understanding of atmospheric physics, your local climatology and what each model has an affinity for then they can be useful, sometimes very. Pattern recognition is also part of it. At the end of the day, models paint pretty maps, buts it the meteorologists/hobbiests job to make heads or tails of it. And like models each one has their own set of bias. But, at the end of the day, weather prediction is quite complicated and, honestly, downright frustrating at times.

Thats manageable. 1-2" of ice is not.

100%

Eh. That's fair.

NAM is usually good for mid levels and sometimes low level temps. Inside it's range. That's really all I see the NAM good for.

Freezing rain is separate from sleet. Freezing rain is accrual which accumulates on trees, ground, power lines, etc. That's ice accumulation

Sun angle 100% makes a difference on black top for winter weather events here. I saw it last year when we were 28 with light freezing rain and trees were glazed and roads in my development were wet. Roads that barely anyone traveled that day. I'm not taking about losing accumulation etc. I'm taking sensible impacts on roadways. Same as up North. A blizzard in mid January meant side roads were likely going to be white a few days whereas the same temp in February did not keep roadways as icy.

This is also mid January, when the sun can't help warm the blacktop as much, so 31/32 and rain has a much higher chance of truly being freezing rain than if this were mid to late Feb.

While I would not put much stock in it, I would welcome that outcome. At least here.

Yeah, I glanced at it too quckly. Sometimes foot in mouth disease is a thing...

Euro looks like it wants to finally override that CAD. Looks like SN/Slop to Slop to Rn.

I am not set on a huge ZR for this area yet... but I am losing the battle against hope. That withstanding, if the CAD is going to hold on so strongly, perhaps the Mid Levels stay just cold enough to keep us as sleet over ZR. That or perhaps the CAD is enough to shunt the storm a bit futher South.

Good. You can have it. You can have mine also lol. Just keep it away from Greenville.

Yes. That is my belief -&- concern.

Ukie looks like it saves Upstate SC and parts of WNC, but the CAD is still really strong. It looks like its going to be pretty tough to scour out this LL cold air unless the storm Amps even further than we have seen in trends as of late.

Historically this would be the time frame that it would over amp, however, given the trends, I would think this is within the realm of possibilities.

Yes, which is working against us in this scenario. With the warm mid levels and the cold surface temps, thats a disasterous recipe, especially if the HP keeps funneling the cold air. 100%.