USCG RS

Don't forget the parachute though..

I am misreading this I think... Did they say that there was .75 to 1 in of ice? That must include Sleet?

I'd appreciate if you did not video tape me and my family. Thank you very much. (Think Madea voice).

We always complained if we weren't in the bullseye....

https://x.com/NWSGSP

So at this point I'll concede (mostly happily) that I was wrong. This line is basically through... And as others more experienced in this region have been predicting - these lines do not make storm. Looks like we may not even reach technical ice storm criteria. Unless this storm pulls a proverbial rabbit out of its hat, we dodged a massive bullet. (Now that I've said this, an ice nado will somehow develop over the Upstate).

75/25 ZR/IP Respectively

Going back and forth between Sleet and ZR. Lightened up and its more ZR.

Sleet mixing in now. Half and half.

Simsponville. Zr to ZR+

I actually just posted this in the other thread The physics of this is both complicated and nuanced. For rain to freeze, it has to be super cooled. Heavy rain has less of a chance to cool. Heavy freezing rain has less time to contact other freezing surfaces, which can lead to a run off thus making it accumulate less quickly, especially on elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines. Each rain drop also releases a touch of latent heat which can take longer to accrue. It also can warm the surrounding area ever so slightly. That withstanding, heavy ZR falling into the 20s with a light accreation already in place ovverules most of the potential negation of other factors. So if this line brings a good amount of QPF, it will accumulate, and quite a bit. Quickly as well.

The physics of this is both complicated and nuanced. For rain to freeze, it has to be super cooled. Heavy rain has less of a chance to cool. Heavy freezing rain has less time to contact other freezing surfaces, which can lead to a run off thus making it accumulate less quickly, especially on elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines. Each rain drop also releases a touch of latent heat which can take longer to accrue. It also can warm the surrounding area ever so slightly. That withstanding, heavy ZR falling into the 20s with a light accreation already in place ovverules most of the potential negation of other factors. So if this line brings a good amount of QPF, it will accumulate, and quite a bit. Quickly as well.

My overarching point was that most persons (ie public) look at customers out not outages. Now... The number out is a low number, but if we stay that way after this line gets through, it will be great. But... We have a long way to go.

Helene at one point could have been considered one outage.

Zulu or UTC time 19z for today would be 1400 (2PM)

Neither yet.

100%. And I won't comment further on this specific incident after this post... But when I saw the incident, i was immediately reminded American Airlines Flight 191 In Chicago (As you stated) . Turns out it was exactly that. So it's beyond Boeings fault, it's pure negligence, because this EXACT scenario caused the United States deadliest aircraft passenger accident in 1979.

Unfortunately, it looks like both. There is a potential for thunder freezing rain.

So from an Emergency/Risk Management perspective, I don't think they were wrong to use that word. This still isn't over and if we get hit with a squall line of heavy freezing rain, this will be major to potentially crippling. You're talking heavy to maybe torrential freezing rain with temps in the 20s and then wind. That's disaster. As I have said before, this is a situation where you pull out all the stops. Even if it turns out to be wrong, which we still hope it does. But here is what I've seen, a multitude of inconvenient to potentially dangerous scenarios coming together to form a potentially crippling scenario. 1) Anomolously deep cold. Now we also have a glaze of ice and sleet, so everything that falls is going to stick. 2) Potentially catastrophic ice accumulation, especially on infrastructure that is already strained due to over burdening and infrastructure that may not have been replaced from Helene. 3) Exceedingly cold weather coming in with potential high end power losses and houses not designed to insulate against this type of cold. 4) Potentially impassable roadways for days. Meaning municipal and emergency services can't drive either. 5) More potential winter weather within a shorter time frame behind this. 6) The majority of the country is being hit with a significant winter storm. So we don't have a Calvary coming to assist for some time. 7) Potentially strong winds behind the storm, after ice has accumulated. Combining all these together, you have the risk of a catastrophic event. As a way of showcasing what I mean - I like to use the example of United Airlines Flight 232. This flight was an Md10 aircraft, which despite its later track record is and was a very safe aircraft. For this incident, the engine over the tail exploded. This caused a catastrophic blow out which led to a complete loss of hydraulics and thus loss of control of the aircraft. But here's why I bring this up: it was a series of very unfortunate events which led to a full catastrophe. 1) The engine exploded due to a minor hairline crack in one of the engine fins. This eventually led to the fin breaking, causing the catastrophic implosion. This was missed by several technicians, in part because the airline designed their own maintenance plan, causing a divergence from the manufacturer recommendations in some slight manners. This removed a redundancy which may have picked up on the crack. 2) The aircraft was designed with three separate hydraulic lines so a loss of hydraulics was theoretically/statistically almost impossible. Unfortunately, these three lines met in the tail, exactly where the engine imploded. 3)The engine was designed to contain an implosion. However, Because they were at altitude and the engine was running in such low density air, the pressure did not push it back so much as allowing it to shoot downward. Combined with the force of the explosion, which was not normal for an aircraft engine, even one that explodes. 4) The engine also was able to explode at the exact millisecond so as to send the broken fin into the fuselage, severing the hydraulic lines below it. Exactly where the three sets of hydraulic met. Thus a full loss of hydraulics. 5) There was no training (to my knowledge) for piloting and aircraft with no controls. 6) There happened to be one of the foremost experts for this aircraft sitting in the cabin. This saved a plethora of lives but not all as the pilots were able to devise a way to use thrust to guide the aircraft, though it was exceedingly hard to do so. 7) The pilots actually guided the aircraft to an airport and was very close to landing successfully when a gust of wind combined with the issue of thrust and loss of hydraulics to cause the aircraft to dip to one side, crashing down the runway in pieces at it landed. Despite this, 184 persons survived. 296 were on board (112 perished). I use this example to show the shear number of things which had to go wrong for this event to even to line up to be catastrophic. Even then, it could have been worse. So from a risk management point of view, you have the lining up of a series of unfortunate incidents combining together to provide a potentially catastrophic scenario. When you see these types of events lining up, you don't hold back on preparations or warning. Side note - argument for better communication of the pitfalls... I agree wholeheartedly. This way if we are wrong, we don't get the boy who cried wolf reputation and then something truly hits.

I would argue not yet. What's coming through is nothing to sneeze at.

Unfortunately, I agree with you. Up north you can see how places are colder than expected as well and the snow in the DC to Boston corridor is beginning as nothing and then SN+ with some places close to visibility below 1,000 feet nearly immediately upon the commencement of snow beginning. This means the precip is running into a literal wall, or a high pressure system that is unduly strong. It's acting almost as an SWFE. Now, if that was the only storm/batch of moisture, I would breathe a sigh of relief. But it's not, and this storm is still ramping up. So you'll have a storm getting it's act together with heavier precip and strong WAA with an uncharacteristically strong HP filtering in a strong CAD situation. It's still a set up for a significant ice storm.

Thoughts on GSP? If you don't mind?

I run another board and I have someone as MDBR, was wondering if it was you. I would say by your reaction I was wrong...

Nvm.