MillvilleWx

Is Ji okay?

Edinboro is one of the snowiest locales in PA. It is very close with the area of NW PA between Erie and Jamestown, NY. They average 150-180" of snow a year. It's a top 10 location east of the Mississippi.

I literally got 1.5" of rain the other day from a storm. That equaled all my precip from March 15th to July 1st before the rain. Now it's gonna be smoking hot with 105-110 everyday from Fri-Wed. Send help....... and ice cream

Didn't you say you always wanted a pool in your backyard? This seems more cost effective

You don't think the rates will save us?

Current deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to convey a borderline historic precip maker for west Texas across the Permian Basin, Caprock, and points east toward San Angelo/Abilene. Looking at historical statistics for MAF, the highest March daily precip was recorded on March 6th of 1970, coming in with 2.13". Current guidance may be a step below on the prospects of the daily rainfall record, but coming into second all-time for a date (1.30" is #2), is well within reason. Progs are showing around 2-3 sigma above normal PWAT's within a broad zone of enhanced H7 VV's under the difluent area of the UL cruising south across the Lower Trans-Pecos. A broad shield of 1.5-3" of rain is well within reason for the setup along much of I-20 from Van Horn to Sweetwater (at least). Severe potential is slightly higher than normal given the steep mid-level LR's and area of shear down stream of the ULL on Tuesday. I think one hindrance will be the shallow cool airmass ahead of the disturbance, limiting the thermodynamic environment available for a more pronounced severe threat. Over toward the Rio Grande from Del Rio into northern Hill Country, a little more pronounced area of destabilization is probable, leading to an enhancement of the severe potential. It's quite the setup.

100% mashed potatoes. Almost back breaking snow trying to shovel the next morning. I had ~20" NW of 95. I was in the heart of that band for hours. We hit 4"/hr between 115-215AM that night. Thundersnow woke up my dad, who then woke me up, which lead to us staying up all night watching and taking measurements. Great father and son moment. What a great memory. Edit: Sorry for going a bit off topic. Those analogs are very much conducive for wintry weather. Ridge over the top with mean trough in the east, EPO ridge in place, and low anomalies where the Aleutian low is parked. There's also a hint of low anomalies off the Pac/Baja coast. Likely some result of southern stream influence judging by the buckling heights out there.

Man, there's a few good storms in there. One of my all time favorite, extremely underrated storms was 2/9/2006. Got absolutely buried by a crazy deformation axis that extended from NoVa to just north of NYC. The reason people actually remember that storm was due to thunder snow in the band, and the fact it warmed up so fast after the storm exited. I remember it was in the 40's before Noon just north of Baltimore. Crazy, but some of the greatest rates I've ever seen.

I could easily see that as well. 850mb winds are pretty light prior to Sat morning on both models before ramping up in the afternoon. 925mb temps are very slow to erode however, showing the model is sort of seeing the wedge hanging around, but likely still too quick in the dispersion before the boundary layer finally warms. Just a 100 mile southeast jog on current progs and it's a formidable winter event for anyone west of the fall line. Curious to see ensembles on the Euro as well to see what kind of positive winter evolution(s) it's spitting out. Exactly. That's wedge into north GA kind of cold. You keep that look heading into the week and you're bound to see some icier solutions show up in the mix.

Whoever is "writing off" the weekend event after that one run of the GFS is crazy. Given a ~1045mb high in place over Quebec prior to the system making it, the surface CAD wedge will be very difficult to erode, even if the storm cut. Propensity for these modeled storm at lead is to be over amplified with increment adjustments in the short term. Given the H5 evolution, a more west-east trajectory is possible for any low that would develop (On the current look. That could easily change). The key takeaway is the prior confluence signature to our north remaining steady, leading to strong Canadian HP to slide overhead before the approach of any system to the west. I actually didn't mind that run. I'll be in Disney starting Wednesday, so I'll take my one front and 80+ temps, but I'll try to follow along this week.

Keep the southern wave train running with that shift in the high latitudes and you’re bound to see some frozen down the line. I am really really liking the setup for February if this shakes out close to what is being progged. Even down here for that matter. Any blocking in the NA is icing to lock in the freezer. We know what happens when cold is around and wave lengths shorten. Good stuff in LR ensemble land. .

“Low in my hood, back east could be good!” [emoji6] .

IBM Deep Thunder Super-dooper LR Hi Res Ensemble says 2021 we'll see a drive by clipper drop 2". You're safe

In laws near Laytonsville with just under a foot. 11.9” official with light snow. What a great storm to follow. I’ll be back for this weekend and next weekend though. Let’s reel in a few more shall we .

Walking off all those Cheetos. Leaves room for celebratory Cheetos .

Getting some influence from the upper level feature moving in. I call it ULL, Upper Level Love. When it's a well defined and closed ULL, it's double the fun

Yeah. I watched the whole extended radar loop from the night and you were just missing the good stuff to the south. Hampstead probably cashed it was that close. At least it snowed to break the snowless drought and my god does the long range look sweet. I can't wait to be home for next week. I fly in by Noon Friday and by then, we should be tracking a pretty formidable event or two in the near future. Enjoy the snow with your fam. And you know, that whole football game today

Your area is right within my forecast right now. Not a bust anywhere in the entire region as far as I can see. Maybe the MD line, but that's it. Sorry @psuhoffman

This has been a fun storm to follow and watch unfold. Glad many are waking up to some pretty good scenery and higher than forecast totals. I'm not going to do a grade on my forecast until everything shuts off. Upper level piece later on should make for some fluffy snow and high ratios as it pulls through. Models are back and forth on where the best axis of snow will setup, but my guess is somewhere near I-95, then pulling east. I think a low key spot to enjoy the upper level fun will be interior eastern shore. Good times though and multiple areas should get 8+ out this system. That was not even on most people's expectations 36 hours ago. Southern stream systems are fun. Should be a nice start to what will be a very active 8 weeks incoming. Enjoy y'all

BUT THE HRRR!!! /s .

Hey guys. Here's my updated snowfall totals. After getting up at 315am this morning, I'm dog tired and will not be doing a long post this go around. We all know what's been transpiring in terms of model guidance. I think I'm still hedging conservative in spots, but this is my final call for the storm. Now, here's a great storm for everyone in here. Enjoy!! I'll be watching from the sidelines in the Lone Star state. Snowfall Forecast by Zone: Zone 1: Havre de Grace: 1-4" Bel Air: 2-5" Baltimore County Hereford Zone: 3-6" Timonium/Towson/Western Baltimore County: 3-7" Eastern Baltimore County: 3-6" Baltimore City: 3-6" Northern Carroll: 4-9" with local highest along Parr's Ridge (Manchester/Westminster/Hampstead/Mt Airy) Southern Carroll: 4-8" Howard County: 4-8" Eastern Frederick County: 3-7" Northwest MoCo: 4-8" Zone 2: East of Bay including all MD/DE counties: 4-10" with highest totals across interior areas including Easton/Kent Co/Interior Sussex Co. 3-7" along the Atlantic shore AA County: 5-10" with max to the south South-Central MD counties, including PG Co: 5-11" Central and Southern MoCo: 5-10" NW DC: 5-10" SE DC: 6-12" Center City DC: 4-9" NoVa: 6-12" Frederick County: 4-10" with highest in Western Fdk Co and along South Mountain/Catoctins BWI: 5-10" IAD: 5-10" DCA: 4-8" Zone 3: Valley Areas with elevation below 1200': 5-10" Appalachians and Blue Ridge/Allegheny with elevation above 1200-2400': 8-14" Blue Ridge/Allegheny with elevation above 2400': 10-16" Zone 4: Shenandoah Valley areas: 7-12" Central Va: 8-13" with highest to the east Southern MD: 6-12" SBY to OC: 4-9" Richmond and Areas south of Dashed Line: 2-8" with highest to northwest of Richmond. Mixing issues possible south of dashed line.

Enjoy my man! Hope you get wrecked out there. Looks promising from everything I've seen along I-81 in VA

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I've been waiting for you to chime in Heavy. Good to hear from you on this one. Looks like your area will be getting the goods down there in Laurel

It was a model run I was waiting for and it certainly didn't disappoint. I'm going to have to up my forecast totals in most areas, but it'll be a conservative upgrade. I'm going to wait until the 12z Euro before I do anything.