poolz1

I personally don't buy into 50 degree water in the gulf of AK providing meaningful forcing in the mid/upper levels. I just think the existence of "the blob" is a response to predominant weather patterns in the area. If a big GoA vortex wants to set up it's going to do it regardless of AN temps in the region. The equatorial region is different. Warm and cold water there definitely makes a big difference in hemispheric patterns. 
Same with the north atlantic near Greenland. Water has been BN there for multiple years in a row but the NAO has been raging positive to it makes sense. 
Do I think there can be a feedback of sorts in both regions? Yes, I think it's possible for sure. I just don think the water temps in the north atlantic or pacific drive the surface, mid and upper levels over long periods of time. I think it works the other way around. 
There are differing opinions on this so I'm just stating the way I look at it. If someone can show me viable research that connects SSTAs in the north atlantic and Pacific driving the bus with surface and upper level patterns I'll change my mind. 

12 hours ago, poolz1 said:

32.6 when I left the house at 5am....will have to check this eve it actually hit the freezing mark.  Heavy frost.... The weed line is officially defeated.

 

31.2 for the low this morning.  Nice!

32.6 when I left the house at 5am....will have to check this eve it actually hit the freezing mark.  Heavy frost.... The weed line is officially defeated.

Reading between the lines a bit....Looks like a quick start to winter, a pull back in Jan (but doable) and then a classic el nino Feb/Mar

28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Agree, and its not bad even towards the end, but in the context of the concerns of a +AO look, it does lean that way the latter part of November. IIRC last week's edition had the higher h5 height and MSLP anomalies in the AO domain, and actually increased the blocky look over GL towards the end of the run. But again, its a tool with limited skill 30+ days out, esp. when considering only a single run. If 2 or 3 consecutive runs tend to show the same pattern evolution in the LR, then I pay more attention.

Yep...splitting hairs on a 46 day lead is probably pointless as it will change by Thursday.  Check out the control run....wants to put a lot of snow cover down across the CONUS.  Let's pick apart the control run now! 

Idk....I thought the weeklies looked fine thru the end of the run.  First week in Nov looks classic....the last week in this cycle shows the same pattern just washed out...as an ens would be that far out.

We also need to start a digital snow thread....per the 00z gfs.  I do like seeing some coastal storms starting to show up.

lol...

Winter preview?

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's what I'm talking about from another year... a very good one. Lol. We want the western side of the npac to move towards this. 02-03 success was driven by a persistant +pna more than the ao/nao. Some similarity in the eastern npac right now. Heh. 

Yep...another big difference between 02 and now is the presence of much gradient in the Pac....in all of the important regions.   I see yellows and oranges in rights places but I think lack of gradient between +/-  SST anoms is also key if we want features to show up and be prominent in the right spots.  Did some reading a few weeks ago on the Walker Cell and how the gradient in the Pac during an enso event can affect the cell's circulation....not just the strength of the enso but the gradient involved. I dont know enough about the subject to comment further...so there's that.  I am curious tho as to how this plays out....

I'm becoming more interested in the anomalous AK ridge happening lately. That's actually a decent feature for cold outbreaks in the US. Maybe we get an enso climo favored Aleutian low with a -epo ridge over the top. Even better would be a +pna ridge connecting to the -epo ridge. Then throw in low heights in socal undercutting the +pna and storm track across the southern tier. Lastly, having some northern energy riding down the massive -epo/+pna ridge that phases with the southern stream. Yea, that would work. 
Only half of my post is in jest. This is a legit consideration we'll know more about in a few months. Arctic amplification has a recurring theme over the last decade. Location seems to move around year to year but it's been happening a lot. Nasty AK ridge is a net + in these parts. 

Noticeable change in humidity the past 20 minutes. I have to admit....I rather be engulfed in tropical rains right now.


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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If this storm were 100 miles north we'd all be winning.  Soooo close.

Yep...so close to scoring with this one.  SE of 95 looks to be in for a real deluge. Its almost painful to watch the radar down in VA.... 

Yea...but you can see on radar evidence that the front is already  in Garrett Co. starting to influence the northern trajectory of the returns. I doubt any heavy returns make it to my yard but the metros on se should get a soakin.

Pretty nice cluster of tropical rains developing and pushing north toward central/western areas.


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I watch it every time it's posted....miss that guy.

That's a pretty sig spike getting ready to occur....if the Euro is correct.  Yea...new euro seasonal looks beautiful...even better than the Sep run imo.

Great pics...especially the fox!  Usually skittish creatures unless you are in a suburban neighborhood or close to town....really cool picture! 

Man! Look at that hook echo south of Pittsburgh and another to the east. Like something out of Kansas...


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Interesting how things have flipped in terms of rainfall. Looks dry except for scattered storms  later today ad then a record High Pressure ridge next week building oover the Eastern States. I look for very warm and dry weather. Funny the SOI continues to plummet yet temps here well above normal.  I guess the second part of the month could turn out wetter as the EPS shows a pattern change after mid month.  

@showmethesnow  I am sure you have already taken a look but Jan looks pretty classic as far as precip distribution goes.  Dec also with +precip anom but looks more OH Valley centered and Feb almost looks like suppression being the only month with a negative precip anom ...

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just a single op run, but we can dream...of a pattern that does not include an east coast ridge locked in place. This would be a nice change of pace.

That system off Cal has KU written all over it....

37 minutes ago, mattie g said:

^ Impressive

When I was driving over 14th Street Bridge when home from work yesterday, the Potomac couldn’t have been more than 6” from topping the walls along the DC bank of the river on the south side of the bridge. I was really surprised. I wonder if it’ll top the wall once max flood stage is reached.

Looks to be very close....Crest early tomorrow morning roughly 1' above yesterday's peak

Wow!