poolz1

It’s a hot mess. Best thing to do is once you eventually find the maps you want favorite them so that they show up on your page.

Doesn’t help that the new stuff is hidden away in a separate place, either

lab.weathermodels.com
or
wx.graphics.com

Got it thanks... I haven't tried the favorites yet. I'll give it the benefit of the doubt for 30 days and try to get used to it..

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Signed up for weatermodels. Com the other day just to see if I like it better than wxbell... Figured I'll risk the 20 bucks for one month and cancel if I didn't like it.

Maybe I am missing something but Jeesh... Seems more difficult to navigate than wxbell. Beautiful maps but can he design something easy to navigate. Tropical tidbits is as simple as it gets... Doesn't seem too difficult to achieve.

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Maybe the muted signal in the lr has to do with the MJO losing amplitude and heading for a weak phase 3 and into the COD. Will be interesting to see (if the MJO forecast is correct) what our default pattern will be when we head into the cod.

Again, if correct, it looks like we may get another tour of favorable phases as we head into December.

Big November snows have happened.  Here's Capital Weather Gangs article on the 1987 Vet day storm. The old saying'  it won't stick ...its been too warm lately ' fails even in  November lol.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/10/weathermen-recall-the-record-veterans-day-snowstorm-that-totally-fooled-them-30-years-ago/
I also remember 1989 ? I think . In Baltimore we got a white Turkey day .
November  1953 was pretty big snow as well esp n+w . Dont have my Kocin book but I'm sure that's the year 

Looks like my memory of 4” was pretty spot on....even at 12 yo I didn’t slant stick! Lol

Subsurface warmth is there and one stout wwb should push this Nino to a solidweak status with moderate status very possible imo.
The dominoes have already started to tumble when it comes to the Nino effecting the winter patern... One more look at the euro seasonal this week and then it's watching lr ens and chips fall mode.

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Sure is. I will let the wind do some work today then get on to round one tomorrow.

If only the trees would all synchronize their leaf dropping lol.

I grew up in the woods.....all oak trees and hated leaf removal.  We would just let them fall, let the Nov winds whip the around into general piles and then get to work.  Not a bad approach unless you have a wet mid/late Nov. 

Wow!

 

Yeah, that band is legit... Relentless leaf stripper

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In FDK right and it is pretty intense!

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Not a bad look to the gefs at 12z....would be nice to see eps come around to the same idea... Probably a case of the gefs rushing the pattern but it would a fun ride heading into late Nov with that look.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As is always the case with modeled NA blocking, buyer beware. The ops runs really aren't advertising anything prolonged, and the signal is inconsistent from run to run. On the ensemble runs, there are also hints, but its generally washed out as it is more towards the end of the run. Biggest take away IMO is that there is some persistence in the guidance wrt the strength of the Scandinavian ridging, and this can help in the AO domain(along with an Aleutian trough/-EPO) and/or it may retrograde into the NAO domain down the road.

Yeah....I do agree with you here.  I guess my point was not necessarily to focus on a particular time period or strength of ridging around GL but more of its tendency to pop up on the op runs in the past week or so.  Certainly well aware of the "poof it's gone" aspect of modeling in the NAO region....which makes it a maddening area to predict.

Ops will jump around but these, imo, show that the tendency is there...for now at least..lol

 

 

Nice to see op runs not being shy at all with higher heights into GL. Unlike years where it is relentless blues and the rare pop of transient +heights. Hopefully a good sign as we head into late fall.

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What is that look up top, elongated PV ?

Looks like it to me.....pretty much higher than normal heights over the pole from late November on....of varying strength.

If the weeklies are correct in about a week we should see the ens start to pick up on the Aleutian low forming. I feel like that is the “foundation “ of this this winter....add in a subtropical jet that has some juice and some decent blocking periods....we are bound to fair pretty well.

Snapshot of h5 on the new edition of the EPS weeklies heading into mid Dec...not too shabby.

Was just going to post. Weeklies seem pretty washed out early on....more than normal. My biggest takeaway is they at least seem to be agreeing with the the euro monthly for how December should shape up.

53 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I was required to be at work that Saturday Morning in Hagerstown and it was snowing 2 to 4 inches per hour in the  CCB. On the way home in the early afternoon I have never driven in that much snow . Easily 18 to 24 inches on the back roads. I drove my wife's big suburban and still had trouble getting home. Definitely a while nuckle drive. Hagerstown area ended up with 40+ inches.  Plow drivers had given up for a while that Saturday Morning. Definitely an eerie feeling driving 15 miles home and not passing another vehicle the entire way.

This is when the CCB started to set up over the area around 10am or so....4-6hrs of heavy snow that dropped 6-12" more than eastern areas.  We were in a rare lucky sweet spot.

1 hour ago, frd said:

What caused that block to form ? Do you recall ?

Lately they have been very, very rare. 

I know sometimes SSWE related, wave breaking , retrograde from the East . I can not remember 

I wish I had that kind of memory....Sometimes I'm surprised at the setups to these memorable events when I look back at them.  Boy that block in Dec '09 was insane!  If I remember correctly there was a SSWE in mid/late Nov that year?

@C.A.P.E. Yeah, I remember that dry slot over your area in '16.  I measured 32" on the patio after the storm but my snowboard measurements added up to 35+.  Not much wind out here with the storm.  So hard to get blizzard conditions this far west except for the rare snow squall coming from the west.

The second storm in 2010 did have blizzard conditions imby....one of the big reasons it ranks so high for me.

 

Amounts seem pretty uniform around the area...

.88" here since yesterday afternoon.  During winter we would be thrilled with an areawide 6-12" but a bit disappointed that the model runs of the stalled low at the mouth of the Ches didnt happen.   

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Thats the one. Awesome.

Where did you find that? I used to have a link to NOAA or CPC for historical maps, but lost it.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That is a memorable panel. I looked for a panel of 500 mb heights (and couldn't find it) for the week leading up to the storm, when the block was an absolute beast from Baffin to GL. That basically locked in the trough underneath, and as you pointed out the storm occurred as the -NAO was weakening, and was in fact transitioning to the positive phase, which is often the case with the big snow events.

What a block and what a storm....My #1 single storm experienced in person.....the back to back storms of Feb 2010 are a very close 2nd when it comes to just being in awe of the weather.

Yeah good points.
I would feel a bit better if the latest edition of EPS Weeklies had not backed off (from previous runs) on the idea of at least some NA blocking heading into December though lol.
 

Yeah, I agree about the weeklies. Seems too familiar having that blue bulls eye planted in Greenland but at the same time a raging -epo. Workable for snow but also systems are frustrating tracking.

On the other hand, a fairly consistent feature on the weeklies is the higher heights in the vicinity of the Kara Sea and at times pushing into almost east based block. Though the cold doesn’t show up as great on the panels...that’s a darn cold pattern starting in late Nov. Winter 18-19 pattern trying to find its place and evolving...a lot to be positive about so far.

45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its preseason. Lets start to get this right now so we get the desired result when it actually counts.

If this were winter...last saturday we would have been saying..."the big ones are always sniffed out early".  Models have been pretty much locked onto this for about 6/7 days out and there were rumblings about a big coastal from some mets almost 2 weeks ago.  iirc, 2009 had a few good coastal rainers later in the fall.

I’m sure others can give a better description of the weeklies but here is mine...
The current pattern relaxes with the trough pulling west through mid November and then as we head not December the aleutian low gets cranking again. Nice big -epo with some higher heights into the AO region but....a raging +nao.
Personally, I’ll take what it’s showing...hopefully the NAO evolves and works with us as December wears on.

What a nice looking system on the gfs...if this were winter. It’ll be fun tracking regardless but anytime a sub 1000mb low tucked into VA Beach and stalling for 12+ hours shows up I can’t help but be a little upset this isn’t just 30 days later.

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro verbatim would be fun Saturday evening. Heavy rain with temps west of 95 low to mid 40s with wind gusts over 50 mph 

CMC never fails to impress...has a 967 low over @C.A.P.E. house.  High elevation snows and 2-4" of rain over the region....gale/storm force winds.  Will be fun to track the first coastal of the season!

7 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Here's a start. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL063306%4010.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007.CALDROUGHT1

On the blob..."For the southern portion of the high SLP anomaly, weaker than normal winds from the west induced anomalously weak Ekman transports of colder water from the north. An additional contribution was made by a near‐normal eastward component of the current acting on a preexisting zonal gradient in the SST anomaly distribution."

That was a good read...thanks for posting.  Unfortunately, I dont think there was a firm conclusion....unless I am missing something.  Which is very possible as I am only on my first cup of coffee!

It does sound like for the most part the +anoms were caused by SLP... "This development can be attributed to strongly positive anomalies in SLP, which served to suppress the loss of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, and leads to a lack of the usual cold advection in the upper ocean."

But then the very next line..."The extra mixed layer heat persisted through the summer of 2014 and may have represented a significant contribution to the unusually warm summer (in some locations record high temperatures) observed in the continental Pacific Northwest."

On a side note...it looks like the SOI is back in negative territory after a pretty good stretch of positives. ENSO has cooled a bit in all areas...especially 1+2.