poolz1

12 hours ago, frd said:

Not sure where this piece of the puzzle fits in, but  If I am understanding HM correctly then the walk cell for this winter is not in the favor of snow lovers in the Mid Atlanitc at least.  

 

 

Isn't the strength of the nino determined, to a certain extent, by the strength of the walker cell?  This has always been forecasted to be a weak nino to perhaps moderate.  Having the walker cell weaker shouldnt be a surprise, right?  Would think that other factors, as you noted, would have a greater chance of affecting the cold season pattern than if we had a solid mod/strong ninio throwing it's weight around.

eta: I'm honestly questioning because I dont know....I understand very little about what HM posts some times.

.62" over 5 hrs has been enough to make the backyard creek bank full again.  3k and hrrr both indicating some convective rains as it comes to an end tonight.  This should be enough to cause some localized, and maybe more widespread,  flash flooding around the area.

.57” at home but a great storm in eastern Frederick county. Lots of T&L and I would guess 1”+.


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DCA : 11/12

BWI: 11/1

IAD: 10/31

RIC: 11/25

Tiebreaker: 5.4

Only .23" today so far.... 44.59" for the year so far.

I know it not a news flash that water tables are high around the area but I have not seen anything like this.  In-ground spas are popping out of the ground, pool walls are being heaved inward and pools that are empty for repairs have springs shooting up from the shell.  Before this year I could count on one hand similar instances (25 years being in this line of work).  We have over a dozen instances this year so far.  Problem is, most homeowner's policies do not cover this type of damage.

1 minute ago, frd said:

That is a huge spike up,  but it may very well may trend down in a few weeks. Your right of all the areas this one is very volatile. 

Meanwhile the  big negative SOI burst continues. Nice to see that at this point . The SST profile in the SW Pacific is very interesting.   

 

 

Absolutely...There is no data out there to suggest that 1+2 stays warm for any extended period of time (or, warmer than 3.4).  Really nothing to dislike about the SST in PAC except for my cherrypicked graph there..lol  I'm just practicing my normal handwringing before winter arrives. 

The cold water west of Australia is going to have a real hard time reversing anytime soon which should continue the SOI crash and the damage should be done by the time we head into winter.

Hoping this is just a blip in 1+2.  I know this region can be volatile but this is a pretty good spike.

This is the control run from the weeklies. Monthly run comes out at the beginning of the month I think... Was mostly a banter post.

Do you know when the next release is from the Euro for DJF temps/ anomalies  , is it the beginning of the every month or is this the normal time ?
 
 

Fantasy land map posting dry run.....

.84" in the bucket at home...looks to about it.

22 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

First daily -30 soi in a while today.

Another one today..pretty good tumble going on and looks to continue negative.

Man! Thought my .28” in 15 minutes was notable...guest not looking some other reports.


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Just glanced at it...HLB ftw

I would love a front loaded winter...would prefer wall to wall but not having to wait until mid January for once would be nice.


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Keep it coming....

Radar yesterday evening reminded me of the event earlier this season that hit southern Frederick and Washington counties....just shifted a bit NE. Back building, slow moving convection. Though not quite as robust.

Seems like we have had an abnormal number of events of slow moving thunderstorms this year.


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14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It was 52 at 6am . I could see my breath...lol   I just took a deep breath and took it all in. My kind of morning .

53 here this morning.  Felt like a fall fishing morning....On the water with sweatshirts and stocking caps at 7am and T-shirts and sunblock by noon.

59 minutes ago, mappy said:

was gonna explain why it looks that way, but i see mntransplant already did.

Last comment about the birds...I promise.  If you look at COD radar on 48 frames you can see several of these circles and they look to line up with the Susquehanna river up to Harrisburg. I'll see if I can find a bird forum for future posts...I'm sure the folks in there will have as good of a sense of humor as this place.

They don’t fan out in a circle, it is the angle of the radar beam that makes it look like that.  As the birds go up in altitude the intersection of the beam with the birds gets further away from the radar, making it look like a circle when applied to a flat plane.

around 6am or so? yeah, i saw it yesterday. I assume birds. 

1.68" Yesterday.  1"  Coming in about 30 minutes.

Anyone know what the blow up is every morning on Radar in NE MD?  Right around Aberdeen....Though this morning was a bit east of there.  Some type of insect hatch...birds?? 

That's awesome... Canning pickles is one of favorites.

We got about a dozen and then, over 3 days, healthy plants completely died

We've had about 30 large pickling cucumbers since July. 

This has been the worst year for tomatoes since we started gardening.  We will have maybe a dozen this year if that due to too much rain and a potash deficiency in our soil.  The cucumbers, garlic, squash and pumpkins are looking very healthy however.  Peaches in the state are doing okay so we'll have a lot to can and pack away for winter.

Ya''ll are "crying" over rain? you should check the stats for WILM,N.C. for the past month! 

Saw that line that just came thru there... Looks to be making it up this way. At least you got something to settle the dust out there.

FINALLY!!