poolz1

Last several runs of the GEFS want to really keep the pressure on the PV in the lr....Models are in more of an agreement with a mjo cycle 7-8-1 in early Dec that has some decent amplitude.  Snow pack to grow from the plains/MW to SE Can and New England over the next 2 weeks.  Things are shaping up.....(not a news flash, I know)

Storm chances aside...Eps keeps looking colder in the LR (D11-15).  With that look up top and on the west coast I would think we have a pretty good period in early dec of some sig neg departures.

I like it @C.A.P.E..  As the season shows it's hand I think you can give more weight to the panels that show what our background state looks like.  Aleutian low, +PNA/-EPO and hedging toward a -AO.  Not that the panels showing something different are wrong but even with the muted depiction you can still see the "background state" in there.  This run is a win imo.... 

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

Third day of snow cover here.  Really unusual for mid-November.

Same here...south facing hills are bare but everywhere else is pretty much 1-2".  Im sure today will probably wipe most of it out but I know out your way had an addition 1-2".... Impressive. 

20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I am getting spoiled by this season.  Snow before thanksgiving then cold on the actual day.  I need to get my latitude in check.  

yeah man...getting spoiled myself.  I find myself getting bummed that we dont have something to track...but it's freaking Nov still!  Reality will slowly creep back in...

Usually the euro starts coming to it's senses by now if it's off it's rocker.... but 00z run comes in even a bit colder for T-Day.  Pretty impressive cold...mid-winter style.  Mid 10's for Friday morning.

15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

18Z is getting a little more aggressive on our Tues system up around the PA line. One member even gets a decent swath through the metros.

As far as the extended? It's still rockin. 

If you loop the 18z gfs op run I count 5 different closed lows traversing the country east of the rockies.....2 of which take a pass directly overhead.  We just had a nice ull produce our early season snowstorm.  I wonder if this theme will continue deeper into the season?

Euro holds serve with a frozen turkey day. Highs below freezing, gusty NW wind... Dews in the single digits. Temps drop quickly into the low 20s once the sun goes down... Good digestion weather.

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FV3 with some good fantasy looks...

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mjo cycling the cold phases repeatedly is one of the best signs imo. Keep it cycling like that all winter and it would be hard to fail. 

Agreed.  Obviously nothing is etched in stone but the upcoming pattern I think at the very least shows this winter will host periods of a favorable Atl.  Combine that with a fairly steady background state of the MJO rotating through favorable phases and it really gives hope for a great winter.  

Soi is certainly taking a dip finally....

MJO on most models wants to head for the COD and reemerge in 7/8 and look poised to take the tour as we head toward the first 2 weeks of Dec. Below is the NCEP forecast....probably a little too robust but gives and idea of where we are likely heading.  The deep dip in the soi and this mjo forecast does give credence to the idea of a decent Pac pattern as we roll forward into Dec.

I agree that it is most likely we see a rain storm during that timeframe.  As @showmethesnow said....hopefully this will be the storm that can set the stage...leaving some cold air to work with in it's wake.

Along with the GEFS and EPS signaling a coastal in the D12-14 range we also now have the GFS and FV3 ops showing some decent looks as well at 06z.  The EPS control run last night had beaut....

4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Bands of freezing rain moving through has caked everything in a glaze of ice.  Snow pack really firming up.  Now 30 degrees.

The snow portion of the storm dropped 0.75" liquid here, so right about 10:1.

2.5 degrees warmer here....only dripping from the trees with no ice accum.  Amazing sometimes the difference in such a short distance...as a crow flies.

@Chris78 I wouldnt be surprised if you were and inch or two higher up there...seems like reports closer to the MD line were a bit more.  Thurmont with 8" and Cat Mtn with 9" on the reports.

Just now, Chris78 said:

@poolz1 

What was your total accumulation? I've been at work all day and was unable to get any measurements.  Our totals should be similar.  I'm in Smithsburg. 

6.25" went in the books....

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I was thinking the same. I love seeing those feathery returns light up just to the south. It all looks to be over, the That all fills in as the ULL catches up and the radar lights up like a Christmas tree.

A day of steady heavy snow turns into periods of light snow with intervals of 1/4 mile vis increasing in coverage as the night wears on....additional 4-8 on top of the 8-12 that fell today.  Atmospheric memory and stuff....

Deep into winter with a true arctic airmass in place this would be a fun radar to watch unfold as the ull approaches.  Bonus high ratio stuff....Not complaining tho about the cold rain falling.

27 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

For all those who like my winter storm food posts. Here is dinner. 

Bacon mushroom asparagus quiche. 

 

Mrs. J's pre snowstorm catering service....It's your ticket out of here!  I'd take two orders of chicken soup and that for dinner. 2 adults 2 kids

29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Too lazy (and a tad drunk) to do a detailed analysis, but the new edition of the EPS weeklies look pretty sweet. Here is a sample.

 

Yes sir...that's more like it! A very quick relax mid Dec but then right back into what is hopefully our default pattern..

70 just W of HGR still looking pretty rough...

Huge for Mid-Nov and solid for any winter month....

I agree @losetoa6...there were several hours where the heavy, thick, small/med sized flakes with the occasional 15-20mph gust  made it look and feel like one of our blockbusters.  Just had that look to the snow falling..

Looks like the intense rates are probably about over out here.  Just a steady mod snow falling now...no pingers for the past 2.5 hrs.....

Just took a 20 minute walk and it feels and looks like deep winter....no plows yet down our road, hvy snow and the occasional roof blizzard.   

Just measured 5.25"  Exceptional....