poolz1

43 minutes ago, Ji said:

so far Pulaski has been a bust lol. Been watching this for 3 days. and nothing has really happened.

https://fatnancystackle.com/pages/pages-salmon-river-live-web-stream?srsltid=AfmBOoq0rhYtqPt-KY7XSwYNwngzQqaKAAg5CtmgbsnJN1ZFMHDxdsi0

Been watching it regularly also.  That band just seemed to jump to the north.  Looks like you can see the dark clouds from that band on the 1st cam feed.  I've caught many salmon around that bridge.  Cool little town especially if you like fishing/hunting.

Little bit of light sleet falling.  31/18

The end of the 6z gefs looks like it is a day or 2 from that JMA look.  EPS also.    

GEFS

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It does have a scale, but if you're on a phone, you need to turn it horizontal. By doing that, you'll see 3 icons on the bottom, right of the map. Touch the middle one for the scale. It's a probability scale.

Got it!  Thank you.  But what the hell is the white color?  Not even on the scale. lol.  I'm just bored, it doesn't really matter.  Ready to track something other than the weeklies.

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

When you look at the Euro site maps, you don't come away with such a cold anomaly. So yeah, I'm saying I think WB is inaccurate. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512250000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601050000

I see no scale on the euro site, unless i am missing something?  I mean, WB is to the 10th of a degree scale.  To me,  the Euro site is just much more broad scale.  Which is probably better when analyzing  a mean temp at range but Wb is probably more accurate if you want to dig into the weeds of a 30 day mean.

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Since we’re in grasping at straws stage, 6z euro AI has a snow/mix event after Xmas. Actually a nice setup and close to something a lot bigger. Interestingly (?), overnight EPS pushes a trough over us in the same time period and retrogrades the pig ridge in the Plains for a few days. 

Like you said, grasping a little here but the Euro and the GFS have the same ULL entering Cali and trying to make its way across under the ridge.  I actually thought the 6z GFS was going to do something with it but the ridge just gets bullied east and squashes it.

The end of the 06z GFS run is how I would hope to see things evolve and seems like a realistic evolution.  Not every detail of course.  Significant GL block develops, it takes several cutters and NS systems to feed the developing 50/50ish low.  Eventually, the vortex trapped under the GL block becomes the dominant low compared to the one in the GOA/west coast.  I don't see the GOA low vanishing but with ebbs and flows we get PNA spikes of varying degrees. 

Low of 11 and currently 12.  

28 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Another snow squall blowing through here with sideways snow.  Pavement covered quickly.  19°.

Not enough to coat but a nice mod snow for a few minutes.  Blustery, roof blizzards and sideways snow squalls.  I like days like today.  Looks like a few more coming from the NW. 20/9

2.25"  23/15  Beautiful winter morning.

.25" or so.  Mod snow.  33/29

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CAD sloppiness is still possible in the pattern we're gonna enter, methinks. Not like cold is wiped from the continent. 

Exactly my thoughts.  Getting a system to take a track south of us may be asking a lot but any HP to the north should be a legit airmass. 

With such a narrow "win" zone it is going to be tough to please everyone.  I'll hug the 18z euro because it is the best run for NW zones so far.  Not going to jack out this way, just trying to get in on the action and have if look like winter.  

The temp crash during the day Sunday on the euro is pretty impressive.  FDK is 32 at 4am and 18 at 1pm with a gusty NW wind.  

First single digit temp of the season. Currently 9.6/5 wish we had some snow cover up this way.

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

340 was an absolute disaster trying to get to work. Dusting of snow and people can’t drive. 

I just got to work in Frederick after getting on 340 there by the bridge to Harpers Ferry.  One of the worse drives I have had in a while.  Bet I saw a dozen accidents.

Well, that warm nose didn't take long at all.  To be expected I guess.  100% sleet currently.

Mod snow with good size flakes. Solid coating. 32/28

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

26 in Smithsburg 

Same here with a dp of 20.  Not a bad airmass but I expect 3-4 degree bump when the clouds roll in. Hoping we can get a few hours of a winter wonderland tomorrow morning.

Solid car and mulch topper.  First measurable snow of the season on a gusty southerly wind.

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Fwiw both aifs ensembles and EPS have been cleaning up with verification scores at 500mb over CONUS. Other models aren’t even coming close. 

That's great to hear.  The difference at day 12-15 between the GEFS and EPS is pretty significant.  EPS is actually starting to get the look of its own weeklies forecast from a few weeks ago.  

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

That was a perfect set up. Cold High anchored NW of us in Canada and a huge slug of moisture running Sw to NE.

As the run ended we had 6"+ on the ground and several panels of snow left to go past 240 hours.

North of DC would of been easily 12+ amounts.

I dug into the details too! lol  I'll live in fantasy model land as much as I want.

Give me the set up at the end of the Can run last night.  Endless overrunning into a stout HP.  I think these set ups only occur on model runs though.  

18z Euro would probably be a decent hit west of the fall line.  Nice SLP track, just need a better HP position for everyone to win.  Although it is stronger and and in a better spot than 12z.

The quick rebound of the PV was forecasted weeks ago when the Euro Ext was first showing signs that there may be a reversal. I recall noting that before the end of the forecast period it appeared to rebound to around normal.  Not sure how much this really matters tho.  MJO possibly in 8-1 and a normal PV strength.