poolz1

41 minutes ago, frd said:

Are the weeklies generated by the 0 run last night ? 

If so they should be better than Monday's,  as the overnight EPS improved the NAO block and progression. 

Yes they are....

Really impressive out right now.  Very heavy snow falling...probably 3.5" or so otg.  Temp creeping up just a hair 30.5/29

19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Generally speaking with a South West trough and a +PNA over-cutting it you are looking at a split flow supplying moisture and cold to our region. Not to mention possible phasing of the Northern Stream and Southern Streams in a prime location for our region. With that blocking over-top when that trough and energy decides to eject you can sometimes get a big storm as well.

Thanks...much appreciated...It will be interesting to see tonight how the weeklies try to roll this pattern forward in week 3/4.

Been ripping snow for the past 1.5 hrs...Like a fog settled in.  2.75"  30/29

7 minutes ago, frd said:

Looking at very late November a significant arctic air mass is building over the NW territories , the Yukon, etc. High pressure building there up to 1055mb

Also strong High over Greenland, seems to have retrograded at over 1050mb, maybe more. 

The EPS has trended stronger too with the NAO block as well. 

This is happening along with a robust STJ in the background. 

Early December has promise. 

Not that I expect the same outcome but I think we all know what we're thinking....Sig possibility of something anomalous 

The advertised pattern coming up, if correct, has a better pac to work with...The other difference I guess would be the SW.  To be honest I dont know how the forecasted trough in the SW could change things if at all?  Do you or someone else know?   

@EastCoast NPZ  I have two girls about the same age doing exactly the same thing....Life is good man...even in the high desert.

29/27 Heaviest snow yet...No sleet as of now.  1.5"

3k a little more aggressive with the change back to snow tonight...

29/26

Been waffling between mod/hvy pure snow and 80/20 mix.  Around an inch...

Mod fatties... 30/25  Roughly .5"

First flakes....no sleet yet.  33/21

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Think we are now seeing a distinct window opening up for a possible winter storm (climo and temps permitting of course). Am really starting to like the roughly day 9/10 period. Strengthening signal in this time period on the GEFS but the EPS is pretty much playing at Dr No. But even on the EPS I think there are some hints starting to pop up. GEFS has IMO handled the ongoing pattern shift much better then the EPS so I am going to ride the horse which got us here and lean heavily in its favor. Don't even think that is the end of our chances to boot. I really like what I am seeing with the patterns potential almost immediately after the possible day 9 storm. Pretty much an open window throughout the long range where I would not be surprised if we could sneak in another storm if not 2 (Again, climo and temps permitting). 

Just came on here to post this...seems like a bit of agreement in the lr between the gefs and eps for something around D13.  Out there in time so it's not robust but, as you said, possibly another window to keep an eye on.

Washington County just closed....kids will be pumped. Never know wth this county....I've learned not to promise the kids anymore the night before.  

A beautiful sight...STJ getting it's say in the matter already in Nov. 

33/20

Light breeze out of the N.  Temp steady at 33 but dew has dropped a few degrees since around 11pm. 

33/22 

Trend is actually getting better in terms of a brief period of snow on the tail end...could turn into a thump if trends continue...

17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Extended Hrrr has it still snowing at 20z tomorrow north of i70 fwiw

It also has a decent band coming through at the end...a few more hours of snow.  But...HRRR at hour 31 

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

 @poolz1 Hagerstown should be able to get down to 27-28 degrees when the heavier precip moves in.  

I was a little concerned when the thicker cirrus moved in right at sunset but I have lost 5.5 degrees since the sun went down...still some CAA going on.  I am getting more confident that we will see a winter landscape out there tomorrow.  

37/21

HGR dew down to 17.  This is lower than I have seen on any model so far...this is 5 degrees colder than the 3k had for this hour.

18z FV3 follows suit with a slightly colder scenario..

41/23

dp at HGR is currently 18

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now if only I could translate all of that...lol 

He is showing the years in which the Scan ridge was present in Nov and what the rest of the winter months looked like.  This Nov....the scan ridge is robust to say the least.  His next tweet showed the 20 lowest scan ridge years and what those winters produced.  Basically, having that Scandinavian ridge in Nov is another check mark in pos column....

Thought this was interesting....Click tweet to see what the 20 lowest produced...

WAA precip advance ftw...

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z GEFS is notably less bullish with ridging over the pole after Tday, but the pattern still looks spectacular. Builds the AO late in the run. But rocking -NAO and +PNA and clear signs of a busy STJ.  First week of December should have chances.

I normally dont pay close (daily) attention to the geps but it almost seems like things are taking step toward the look they have been advertising.  More of a  +PNA with the Aleutian low in a more classic position.   

ETA: Ninja'd by Chuck!

@C.A.P.E. Yep...seeing that neg in the Ten valley with a 50/50 in position gets the juices flowing...

Believe me, I know the perils of LR ops and I dont kid myself that this will change but take a look at the FV3 out in time.  I post because it fits nicely with the gefs in that timeframe and gives an "idea" of what an h5 could look like.  Some wild looks should start to appear in the LR...