poolz1

Funny, the euro has this winter forecasted to turn out the same as last winter yet had the opposite forecast this time last year. Though, maybe the climate models have a better chance at being somewhat accurate with what looks like a typical atmospheric response to the current enso state...unlike last year. I am fully prepared for fluke hunting this season. Whatever. Work is pouring in and a mild winter would be extremely helpful.

Current SST anomalies are interesting, imo. Though the PDO clocked in at -1 for Sept it did rise from its Aug reading of -1.3. I understand the current state of anomalies are bound to change but if we can manage to keep some semblance of the current look as we enter Dec it would be at least encouraging. The warm water along the west coast, coolish pool where we are used to seeing the blob and an east based (up for debate ) nina. To me it looks close to '95 right now....just the warms are warmer. Sept of 95 had a +pdo...must be 2020's lack of cool anoms to the east of Japan?

Besides the 50/50 ridge...Id take this any month Nov-March. That's one heck of a LR signal. It's nice to actually have a fall....and it looks to continue.

Line certainly improving as it moves east. .37” here. Torrential rain....minimal wind and a few rumbles. Seemed more tropical than thunder buster....

Time sensitive and no match to watching the derecho but check out that little storm that hopped right over Warrenton. Following that outflow boundary I guess but that was one heck of a head fake!

The base state argument is what we should hang our hats on, imo. Why would we expect anything less than an Aleutian ridge/WAR combo that helps to continue the +NAO avg throughout the winter months? We have been the recipients of this horrid setup even when everything else says we shouldn't. This year says we should see this setup even if it wasnt the background state.

Slow day...Check out that outflow boundary in Nebraska though. Wild looking...time sensitive of course.

Great storm. Not much wind but a ton of T&L...torrential rain and pretty long duration too. 1.27" from that one. 1.65" for the day so far.

Any chance of rotation with these storms today? I'll defer to those more knowledgeable... Looks like a little rotation passing through Inwood right now...

0.0 for the past 4 days.....parched. What a string of bad luck....

Yeah, the C MD split has been frustrating today....we'll see what happens with the stuff west of Winchester. A quick downpour here (maybe 30 seconds) dropped the temp 10 degrees.

Looking West from Jefferson Maryland. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

06z euro with a slightly slower progression as well....Pretty consistent the last few runs for a 2-3" region-wide rain maker. Novice question....do you, or anyone, have any resources you can point me towards to help me understand how to assess the risk of severe from a sounding and other parameters? I do understand the basics but the more I become interested in severe and heavy rains the more complex it seems compared to winter weather. Never thought I would become interested in severe...but, it seems to have grown on me.

Any potential for wed night/thurs? Looks like the 3k has a nasty line coming through WV around midnight....some training looks possible with the slow eastward push.

Looks like a bit of rotation just south of Burkittsville md....I swear that area gets spin ups all the time.

Not really...a good thunderstorm with all the ingredients except for the wind...30-35mph maybe with the storm.

Constant thunder to the west... Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Really surprised at the temp jump...clouds have moved back in. Capped at 74.8 for now.

Up to 73....feels ripe outside

Look like its on a beeline for @WVclimo

Those cells are finally showing some life coming out of WV...Feeding off that break in the clouds?

Full sun here now...plenty of blue skies to my west. Temp rising quick with the sun out...up 2 degrees in the past 15 minutes. 64.9

Just lost a large cedar tree in the yard...the wind roared just as the precip was ending.

Funny, I was up last night and saw your post....I actually thought about it on the way into the office this morning. I'm curious also....the thunder was crazy at our house. Could hail deflect sound if the situation is just right?

Almost 10 days out...I am fine with the gfs. It seems to be making baby steps each run in the right direction. We have gotten rid of the GL low that was on earlier runs and now made a move toward more HP in SE Can.