Boston Bulldog

Graupel/rain showers south of town currently refracting beams of sunlight just outside the office

Regardless of if Sunday Night's event is a snower or cuts west, the cold and moist cyclonic flow looks consistant and filled with potential subtle shortwave features next week. Still a ways to go until confidence increases substantially, but if the pieces align correctly a real solid upslope signature may emerge under the incoming trough.

Snow is back in the forecast for the Green Mountain spine, and the BTV AFD is asking the questions we are all thinking... it appears as though cold season is nearly upon us! Looking forward to the incoming stake photos tomorrow morning, may this winter be as cold as the last!

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and blustery conditions will prevail for most of this upcoming
weekend with occasional valley rain and mountain snow showers. A
light slushy snow accumulation is possible above 1500 feet by
Saturday morning, as temperatures fall into the upper 20s to near
40. Westerly winds will gust at 30 to 45 mph at times overnight,
before slowly weakening on Saturday. Warmer and drier weather
returns by early next week, as temperatures climb back into the 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 247 PM EDT Friday...Updated to remove equipment section as
TYX radar is back in service.

A cool, blustery and showery evening is on tap for Halloween
activities. Sfc analysis places an impressive 978mb low pres
just east of Sherbrooke with deep/vertically stacked system
slowly moving northeast. Storm total rainfall has been 1.72"
here at BTV thru 2:45 PM, just imagine if it were colder. This
closed cyclonic circulation wl produce a prolonged upslope
precip event acrs our mtns thru at least Sat morning, before
drier air develops by Sat aftn and precip slowly dissipates. The
highest pops near 100% and greatest qpf wl be focused over the
northern Dacks and central-northern Greens, with much less in
favorable downslope areas of the CT River Valley and parts of
the western CPV.

Whiteface summit temp already down to 30F with flakes flying
and little Whiteface at 3000 feet is 33F, would expect snow
level near SLK/Lake Placid by 00z, as progged 925mb temps fall
below 0C. For the Green, snow levels start near summit level
this aftn, but falls to 3000 feet by 00z and near 1500 feet
around midnight. 925mb temps hover btwn -1C and -3C, so a slushy
snow accumulation is possible on grassy surfaces down to 1500
feet or so by morning. Expecting 1 to 3 inches btwn 1800 and
3000 feet, 2 to 4 inches between 3000 and 4000 feet and 4 to 6
inches at summit level of both the Greens and Dacks by Sat aftn.
Will there be enough for the rock skis and boards by midday
Saturday?

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

One hell of a blow up going on

Vortices are likely disrupted and a bit sloppy at lower levels, but this intense convection will help realign and ramp up the reorganization in time. Favorable shear vector will help with divergence. Perhaps Melissa can close off another core, albeit briefly 

27 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Really impressed by how well Melissa's mid level vortex held together and how fast the eyewall is reorganizing. It's not got a lot of time before landfall in Cuba, but it has incredible upper level support and obviously high SSTs to reintensify some in short order. At least maintain current intensity. Should be a Category 4 strike.

Agreed, the ongoing contraction of the core as the vortices get back in concert with each other tells me we should see additional pressure falls through landfall. Insanely anomalous to get a Cat-4 strike in this area of Cuba that is so well guarded by mountainous islands.

Sandy is obviously the gold standard when it comes to poleward tracking hurricane intensification over the Eastern Cayman Trench (kind of shocked there isn't a more descriptive name that's easy to find for this body of water), but Melissa is putting on an impressive performance.

Given the broader core and limited time over water, I would bet against Melissa re-attaining Cat 5 status. Perhaps flight level winds will begin to resemble that intensity again, but it is highly unlikely those winds would get down to the surface in time. If Melissa had another 18 hours or so before landfall it’s a different story.

Lightning all over the core now, category 4 landfall certainly back in play 

Equally concerning right now is the massive convective feeder band that is blowing up to the NE of the inner core. This is a firehose of moisture flowing into the high terrain of Jamaica now, and is the commencement of what will be a catastrophic flooding event across Eastern Jamaica.

Roads across the island will become impassible across even the eastern portion of island. The few remaining emergency services in the east will be entirely unable to reach the unimaginible damage in the west. This has the look and feel of Maria in PR all over again, perhaps to an even more acute degree. There will be portions of the island in desperate situations that will be cut off from the outside world for weeks.

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Looks like you can see rising temps indicators down thru the eyewall ?

Yep, extreme stadium effect

4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Bombs away with this microwave satellite presentation hot off the press. Very well organized inner core.

Good lord. ~940mb by morning? Maybe even lower? Throw intensity guidance out the door, Melissa is about to go low

Melissa is trying with this new eruption of convection. Still too early to tell if this is improving the structure under the hood

I don't think Melissa is home free just yet. Shear is still over the system and it's tilted at the midlevels. Upshear convection has done wonders in organizing the system, but Melissa needs one more convincing push to consolidate its inner core in order to commence RI

Easterly shift is likely due to the center reformation to the E-SE that occurred in the past 24 hours

Pretty impressive convective blow up over the center now. If Melissa can maintain central convection upshear, the storm should take off. We've seen a few organization attempts that have failed, let's see if this one can succeed.

Felt like a March warm sector day with the gusty southwesterlies... now we wait for the cutter's cold front to come crashing through

This storm is a pain in the ass! Hopefully the coastals we get this winter don’t have as many moving pieces 

5 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

That has never happened.  Two tropical cyclones never merge together. 

There are many examples of larger tropical cyclones absorbing a nearby smaller tropical cyclone. Pretty fundamental dynamic process

Incredible EWRC presentation on visible satellite this afternoon

As expected, we have our second cat 5 of the season. Really hope we can get recon in there before the next EWRC

Yeah the writing was on the wall pretty quickly this morning, unabated RI was almost a guarantee.@WxWatcher007was correctly calling for this to be the season of the SW Atlantic… once Erin’s cold pool rebounded, that zone has become rocket fuel once again 

Humberto is much stronger than a Cat 1 right now, special advisory should be in order before 5pm

Nascent CBs concentrating on the eyewall, warm spot becoming more pronounced on IR. The eye is about to pop out

Shrimp mode on satellite, we likely have a hurricane soon

On 9/15/2025 at 2:32 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any opinions on the Mount Ellen part of Sugarbush?

Our daughter can get a college pass there for $199 for the season... not sure if it is worth it

Mount Ellen alone is a great mountain, and that is an absolute steal. Ellen’s lifts have been in a bit unreliable in recent years, so sometimes there are weekday closures of terrain that can be a bit maddening. Alterra definitely needs to pour some money into the operation.

Mad River Glen next door also offers a $180 season pass for college students as well.

Kiko is a beauty. Definitely taking on some annular characteristics