Boston Bulldog

Sorry for a bit of mesoscale PBP, but yeah, it's coming. 850mb banding is about to start cranking, huge fronto uptick over the Southern Hudson Valley

Very impressive band over Albany right now, this is likely more associated with the cyclone starting to get it's act together rather than the WAA forcing we've seen to this point

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

And for those of us inbetween… crap

Should fill in as the cyclone gets going... rapidly too. There's a good slug of dynamics lined up that will only improve as it approaches

850mb fronto really starting to kick into gear upstream as H8 works to close itself off. Heavy rates are likely to develop along the coastal front soon.

Central New England still doing nicely under some respectable H7 fronto delivering steady moderate snow

Light rain showers in South End, Boston

Deformation band showing up right over BTV and into Mansfield. Take the over for the Spine?

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We arch. 
 

H7 fronto is fueling this banding in the WAA. Once the 850mb low begins closing off this afternoon, banding will shift closer to the surface low

22 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

In some past noreasters have found that an early WAA band on the northern edge. It’s a good sign for the higher end amounts.

steady light snow here and coding. Small flakes. 21.3

The jack should be where the WAA portion of the storm is maximized, and the banding this afternoon overlaps the most.

I think the deformation is gonna come in a bit NW of modeling, seems like the atmosphere has it’s preferred deform location across Central NH based off prior events (aka congrats Dendrite)

Looks like BTV will be ticking up totals for Thursday along the spine if that modeling holds

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

They've bumped us up slightly

This includes the squalls on Thursday 

Dual lows still on NAM. Really having trouble pulling off a coherent cyclone in the fast flow

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

My zones add up to 7-13 and Elster has increased total expected to 10 for CON.  We are prob gonna get that band

If the band orients WSW-ENE through you and Dendrite, would have to think the summit of Kearsarge could be our jack

Gotta think a lot of the bigger terrain available off 242 might be in play by now…and I’m not talking about The Dip.

@bwt3650 you hearing any rumors? Hypothetically of course 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. 

It's going to take a significant resolution upgrade in order for the AI models to make the jump. Outputs look smoothed, especially at long range

Pretty bad medium range fumble by the Euro-AI. A bit more concerning was just how long and arduous the cave back towards the globals was. Once outputs began to trend, corrections were steady and incremental but far too slow for me to take runs seriously for several days. Model outputs aren't very useful if it's obvious they're playing catch up. 

The AI Models as they currently stand are a great new tool, but I don't think they're ready to compete with the globals... yet. I guess I currently treat them akin to the Canadian, maybe a tick below. However, I think that in a couple years we may have significant disruption of the current model heirarchy.

Dual lows showing up for both EURO and GFS. Couple more cycles of that and I’d be inclined to say that’s a real feature. Nonetheless, cyclogenesis seems to be going to shit 

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

9" measured on elevated surfaces within 24 hours is a solid snowfall (1-1.5" before the flip).  Closing in on a half inch per hour average over an entire calendar day.  That's a good shot of snow for the northern Greens as the trough moves through.

Looks like amounts really dropped off south of I-89. Judging from webcams, probably 1-2 windblown inches at MRG/Sugarbush

48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Jay reported another 16-24" in the past 24 hours and 40" in 48 hours.  It just keeps getting wilder.

Mansfield measured 16" in the past 48 hours and all-time snow depths.

It was clear when they reported 6-10” last Tuesday morning (with a bare Stateside cam no less) that they were going to keep the preseason snow totals very fast and loose. Alta’s 2022-23 season total better look out, Jay’s coming for the 900” crown

47 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I love how Jay is reporting 38-55" in the last 7 days. Quite a range!

Looks like Jay’s claiming 34” at the summit for the cycle that ended last Friday (Based off them reporting 21” over the last 48 hours). Coverage up there was great on Saturday, but I would subtract 10-12” from that for sure. It’s not like it was 3 feet of blower that condensed down, the snowpack was dense and surfy with little room for compaction. 

Love Jay but these reports seem to get increasingly ridiculous. 55” in a drift up against the Tram House perhaps?

Surfy and supportive, Jay was firing today. Never thought I would see the chutes under the tram be in play in mid-November (albeit with a sharky entrance). Tram ridge hot-laps were excellent all morning.

Robust 850mb vortmax about to collide with the spine.

Solid upward tick in BTV accumulation forecasts for tomorrow. 5-9” on the point and clicks for favored summits during the daytime period

First flakes in Downtown Boston. Hard to even call this a flurry, just a few stragglers making it down

Classic blocked flow this AM. Substantial upslope into the west slopes on radar. Looks like echos stop at the top of the spine, is this beam blockage?

No! Clear skies over the Stowe base right now as shown on the webcam, but the eastern extent of the snow showers is very visible over the top of the spine. As froude numbers increase this will push eastward.

Back edge swiftly moving north through central VT, maybe up to another inch left for locations north of I-89?

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mid levels adding a boost to this. Albany radar lighting up. 

Yeah nice 850mb fronto over Capital District and moving north