Boston Bulldog

22 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

In some past noreasters have found that an early WAA band on the northern edge. It’s a good sign for the higher end amounts.

steady light snow here and coding. Small flakes. 21.3

The jack should be where the WAA portion of the storm is maximized, and the banding this afternoon overlaps the most.

I think the deformation is gonna come in a bit NW of modeling, seems like the atmosphere has it’s preferred deform location across Central NH based off prior events (aka congrats Dendrite)

Looks like BTV will be ticking up totals for Thursday along the spine if that modeling holds

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

They've bumped us up slightly

This includes the squalls on Thursday 

Dual lows still on NAM. Really having trouble pulling off a coherent cyclone in the fast flow

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

My zones add up to 7-13 and Elster has increased total expected to 10 for CON.  We are prob gonna get that band

If the band orients WSW-ENE through you and Dendrite, would have to think the summit of Kearsarge could be our jack

Gotta think a lot of the bigger terrain available off 242 might be in play by now…and I’m not talking about The Dip.

@bwt3650 you hearing any rumors? Hypothetically of course 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. 

It's going to take a significant resolution upgrade in order for the AI models to make the jump. Outputs look smoothed, especially at long range

Pretty bad medium range fumble by the Euro-AI. A bit more concerning was just how long and arduous the cave back towards the globals was. Once outputs began to trend, corrections were steady and incremental but far too slow for me to take runs seriously for several days. Model outputs aren't very useful if it's obvious they're playing catch up. 

The AI Models as they currently stand are a great new tool, but I don't think they're ready to compete with the globals... yet. I guess I currently treat them akin to the Canadian, maybe a tick below. However, I think that in a couple years we may have significant disruption of the current model heirarchy.

Dual lows showing up for both EURO and GFS. Couple more cycles of that and I’d be inclined to say that’s a real feature. Nonetheless, cyclogenesis seems to be going to shit 

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

9" measured on elevated surfaces within 24 hours is a solid snowfall (1-1.5" before the flip).  Closing in on a half inch per hour average over an entire calendar day.  That's a good shot of snow for the northern Greens as the trough moves through.

Looks like amounts really dropped off south of I-89. Judging from webcams, probably 1-2 windblown inches at MRG/Sugarbush

48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Jay reported another 16-24" in the past 24 hours and 40" in 48 hours.  It just keeps getting wilder.

Mansfield measured 16" in the past 48 hours and all-time snow depths.

It was clear when they reported 6-10” last Tuesday morning (with a bare Stateside cam no less) that they were going to keep the preseason snow totals very fast and loose. Alta’s 2022-23 season total better look out, Jay’s coming for the 900” crown

47 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I love how Jay is reporting 38-55" in the last 7 days. Quite a range!

Looks like Jay’s claiming 34” at the summit for the cycle that ended last Friday (Based off them reporting 21” over the last 48 hours). Coverage up there was great on Saturday, but I would subtract 10-12” from that for sure. It’s not like it was 3 feet of blower that condensed down, the snowpack was dense and surfy with little room for compaction. 

Love Jay but these reports seem to get increasingly ridiculous. 55” in a drift up against the Tram House perhaps?

Surfy and supportive, Jay was firing today. Never thought I would see the chutes under the tram be in play in mid-November (albeit with a sharky entrance). Tram ridge hot-laps were excellent all morning.

Robust 850mb vortmax about to collide with the spine.

Solid upward tick in BTV accumulation forecasts for tomorrow. 5-9” on the point and clicks for favored summits during the daytime period

First flakes in Downtown Boston. Hard to even call this a flurry, just a few stragglers making it down

Classic blocked flow this AM. Substantial upslope into the west slopes on radar. Looks like echos stop at the top of the spine, is this beam blockage?

No! Clear skies over the Stowe base right now as shown on the webcam, but the eastern extent of the snow showers is very visible over the top of the spine. As froude numbers increase this will push eastward.

Back edge swiftly moving north through central VT, maybe up to another inch left for locations north of I-89?

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mid levels adding a boost to this. Albany radar lighting up. 

Yeah nice 850mb fronto over Capital District and moving north

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ahh was that was it was, I thought it was the Tuesday set-up.  Tuesday has looked upslope driven.  But this evening never truly got me jazzed until the 12z+ models have all changed fairly significantly.

I had seen a bunch of runs with more of a diffuse 1-4" event further north.  Like 12z HRRR.

HRRR has made a big change in the past like 4 hours.

Is blocked flow keeping spine QPF lower than the valley? Hoping more of this can creep over and onto the immediate leeward slopes

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Things I’ve never had to pay attention to. Looks wintry up at SLK for the next week. Just about perfect timing for my trip up. 

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude

The paper by BTV NWS linked above is a fantastic overview of the role the froude number plays in orographic precipitation. When cyclonic flow sets up over the mountains, flakes are flying somewhere

The developing pack is definitely taking a hit, but in high elevations it should survive the warm up. An extended upslope period is still showing up in guidance and it looks like there will be 2 (or 3) vorticity packets moving through the area through the end of next week to shake the upslope snowglobe. Hopefully soon we're talking about Froude numbers and critical flow, when those terms enter the conversation it's always a sign of a great pattern.

Wolf's stat did pique my interest. Sure enough, ice mass is up in 2025 for Antarctica, but looking at the data over time, I can't see anything saying we aren't melting more and more down there. Context matters, as do proper data analysis methods to properly communicate results.

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The data is skewed..period.  But Please take to proper thread…Mr. stir the pot. 

It's these sweeping declarations of ideological talking points in complete ignorance of the painstaking data processes, paleoclimatological advancements, and plentiful data sourcing that goes into these datasets that make it hard for me to believe that these are good-faith arguements backed by substantiated evidence. The data for the Keeling Curve is well documented. The methodologies behind datasets demonstrating trends in temperature and CO2 on the scale of hundreds of thousands of years are the direct result of the leaps and bounds paleoclimate research has experienced in recent decades. All of this is well documented, verified through basic atmospheric chemistry, and published through rigorous peer review. But why dig into something that could potentially be in the opposite of my world view when I can simply say "nuh-uh", "skewed" (whatever that means), or "rigged". 

Graupel/rain showers south of town currently refracting beams of sunlight just outside the office

Regardless of if Sunday Night's event is a snower or cuts west, the cold and moist cyclonic flow looks consistant and filled with potential subtle shortwave features next week. Still a ways to go until confidence increases substantially, but if the pieces align correctly a real solid upslope signature may emerge under the incoming trough.