Boston Bulldog

Every tick counts in the upper levels. The more you can buckle the flow downstream of the trough axis, the more the baroclinic leaf can develop to the NW. While the actual SLP doesn't trend a ton from 18z to 0z, the precip shield is definitely more expansive

Angel on one shoulder telling me it's just the NAM, don't look too deep into it. Devil (weenie?) on the other shoulder telling me to go all in on this trend because we have better sampling now....

Negative trough at 84 hours. That’s a substantial change

Hazey bomb

Looks like the trough on 6z GFS actually trended a bit better than 0z, but the SLP development and evolution is significantly more realistic than at 0z. No spurious convective mass modifying the surface evolution

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That sounds a lot like the NWS Boxing Day warning of the GFS bringing back that one too. 

I wish that is the case! Idk, this configuration just doesn't scream cyclogenesis close to NC.

We need a sharper and deeper trough. And we need that to trend quickly. Decent move from 18z I guess

I have a few caution flags on the improved 0z GFS run. Watch where the SLP develops - it congeals on some spurious convection that forms off of FL, helping shunt the ocean storm a bit NW

Sure the upper level changes are there, but I don't think they support such a substantial shift without the convective feedback

Slight tick better at upper levels. We should know by 12z tomorrow if this is the start of a trend back or just noise. Probably the latter?

Yeah sure GFS blew at 0z. You never see a coastal bomb show up every single run for days on end.

Synoptic errors are so huge at this juncture, but at least there is persistence surrounding a *threat*. The signal continues to grow stronger. Even 0z keeps all the necessary pieces on the playing field, that’s all I need right now 

On 12/7/2024 at 5:32 PM, powderfreak said:

That escalated quickly.

Classic upslope blower pow! Really impressive stuff out of Mount Mansfield.

It wasn’t nearly as deep farther south at MRG, but still some great (albeit thin cover) powder in the upper elevations. Frozen mud on the pole tips means low tide!

Not sure if the natural snow at Sugarbush would’ve held up on most trails for a busy weekend crowd.

25 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Upslope of yore for the greens…just daily refills. Another 4 since yesterday. What a start.


.

Absolutely firing at MRG right now. 6+ easily up high overnight and still dumping.

This little impulse has scaled up slowly in recent days. The MRV area is really lighting up right now, perhaps a little consolation after missing out on last night’s bonanza north of I-89

Upslope starting to blossom over the spine again. What a stretch!

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is who I thought of...did you see he called called out for presenting an Accuwx product as the "Mark Model"?

Yep Margavage. His “white thanksgiving” model was laughable. Ripped the accuweather product verbatim and modified the colorbar labels.

56 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

CFS gives us a snow storm while coastal areas get a Sleetfest so there is a glimmer of hope

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Highly recommend just ignoring the CFS when forecasting storms. 

In addition to its resolution issues with synoptic events, there is one notorious “met” who uses it frequently on Twitter. Betting against his constant “cold and snow” calls would be more profitable than betting against Jim Cramer’s stock picks

With this incoming storm likely to drop 8-12" (and potentially more), it looks like woods skiing will be game on for northern VT on the first weekend of December. Very quietly the NNE mountain snowpack has gotten off to a great early start (what happened mid-december last year was criminal). Jay looks ready to drop ropes on everything, insane stuff up there.

I keep thinking back to the sleeper powder day along the spine in late November last year, keep an eye out on this Friday. 

Looks like a Champlain enhanced snowband has been hitting the App gap and Camels Hump area pretty hard this evening. Sneaky little disturbance tonight ahead of the main clipper has been enhancing upslope production.

These unstable upper level arctic troughs sometimes don't deliver down south, but the mountains will always find ways to cash in.

Game on in Central NH if you’re willing to work for it

The ML reacharound seems to be going poof over SVT. While dynamics are waning overhead, I suspect some of this is due to distance from the radar beam. I think we have a bit more juice before things end.

Eyeballing 7-8” in Sunapee, power flickering constantly over the past few hours. Impressive November event at 1100’

3 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Around 6" based on visual estimation. 3k NAM says there's some juice left too.

Yep, big slug of moisture gearing up near Albany. Probably another 2-4” if that holds together

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Can see that on Albany radar

Yep, expecting it to take on a SW to NE alignment as H7 low matures. Anywhere SE of where it sets up may have some subsidence issues and a more showery radar.

The swath of posters we have from Sullivan through Merrimack counties are going to have a close shave

700mb fronto band starting to take shape. Looking at radar now, it might be curling a bit SW through Vermont back towards the capital region.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Easily 1”/hr in this banding

2.5”

Similar conditions to your west, radar looks great with additional banding pivoting in from the south.

Probably around 3” here

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunapee gonna get smoked 

Yep, 32.0 here and seems to be accumulating relatively unimpeded. Closely watching that band lifting north from Keene

3k NAM has some convective issues with the slp shunting a bit south. Tossed