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Boston Bulldog

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Posts posted by Boston Bulldog

    2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    The pre-advisory ASCAT pass missing is a bit of a disappointment. Given the structure, a 60 mph designation seems reasonable. This is just personal conjecture so take it with a grain of salt,  but its possible that the Dvorak technique may not do as well in resolving TC structures and intensity in marginal regions where convection is harder to come by.

    • Thanks 1

    Central & Eastern Pacific Thread

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Two Hurricanes, two eyes in the EPAC

    epac.jpg

      

    000
WTPZ42 KNHC 301500
TCDEP2

Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022023
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Recent GOES 1-minute visible and infrared satellite imagery show 
that an eye is forming.  A special classification from TAFB yielded 
an estimate of T4.0/65 kt, and raw UW-CIMSS ADT values are also up 
to 4.0.  Therefore, Beatriz has been upgraded to a hurricane with 
maximum winds estimated to be 65 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
plane is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, 
hopefully providing a refinement in the estimated intensity.

Beatriz's initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt.  The
storm is expected to continue moving northwestward during the next
48 hours as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge located over the southern United States and
northern Mexico.  However, as is often the case with cyclones
paralleling the west coast of Mexico, there is significant
uncertainty as to whether Beatriz's center will continue to skirt
the coast or move inland at some point.  The NHC track forecast
continues to show a scenario where Beatriz grazes the coast during
the next 24-36 hours, but models such as the ECMWF and UKMET do
bring the system inland and show dissipation.  If Beatriz survives
the next 48 hours, it would then likely slow down and turn toward
the west-northwest as a mid-level ridge builds over the
southwestern U.S.

If Beatriz's center remains offshore, environmental conditions
should otherwise be conducive for additional strengthening during
the next 12-24 hours, and the storm is forecast to remain a 
hurricane until after it passes Cabo Corrientes.  On the other hand, 
if the center reaches land, the mountainous terrain of Mexico would 
likely cause rapid weakening.  Assuming survival during the next 36 
hours, increasing shear out of the east-northeast, cooler sea 
surface temperatures, and a drier, more subsident environment would 
likely lead to gradual weakening on days 2 and 3.  Based on the 
latest global model guidance, Beatriz is likely to have degenerated 
into a remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Beatriz is forecast to continue strengthening and remain a 
hurricane through Saturday, bringing a risk of hurricane-force 
winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern 
coast of Mexico during the next day or so.  A Hurricane Warning is 
in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, 
and Jalisco, and hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in
those areas later today and on Saturday.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Mexico from
the state of Oaxaca westward to the state of Nayarit.  These rains
could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 17.3N 102.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 18.2N 103.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 20.4N 106.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 21.3N 107.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 21.7N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 22.0N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 22.6N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
    • Thanks 1

    The 2022 - 2023 Ski Season Thread

    in New England

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

    Hey I was also there! Wish I knew the mountain a bit better (2nd time there, first in about ten years and actually the day Nemo was touching down, and with full coverage) but I was about the 10th skier down red line and then had a great run in the wardrobe trees. I thought the snow was on the heavy side of medium density and a touch wind affected but that made it all the more surfy! Overall four great runs before the power cut out. 

    Wardrobe was phenomenal today, took 2 runs down it. One of my favorite tree zones in the East, especially the final steep pitch. I love how the steep/tight pines in that area dump out into a shallow glade of hardwoods. Really allows you to pick up some speed and take aggressive lines without worrying about losing control because it opens up just in time.

    • Like 1

    The 2022 - 2023 Ski Season Thread

    in New England

    Posted

    30" reported at Magic, and it certainly skied like it!

    IMG-0470.thumb.jpg.9aa9ec5c3af25a3d062a807d70da6e31.jpg

    Note the pole for depth (with some slantsticking). The mountain sold out so most runs got quickly tracked up, but the trees were incredibly deep and untouched all morning. Unfortunately, around noon high winds took down a tree which cut the power source to the mountain so they had to shut down. They are giving out a free day voucher to everyone who bought a ticket, shout out Magic for the great customer service and working so quickly to amend an unfortunate situation!

    • Like 5

    NNE Cold Season Thread 2022/2023

    in New England

    Posted

    Nice to see the GFS join the party and get some more robust precip totals into northern VT. Was definitely starting to QPF queen a bit last night over the southern ticks at the time, and their potential impact on my skiing interests in the Mad River Valley:weenie:

    • Like 1

    The 2022 - 2023 Ski Season Thread

    in New England

    Posted

    Tale of two mountains today at Whiteface. For a period this morning, the east aspects near the Summit quad were in the sun, but the south facing ridge of Little Whiteface was an impenetrable cauldron of fog.

    IMG_0264.thumb.jpg.ca1e9fdf63f6be0fe5f83f70d47b0335.jpg

    Next run, a ride up the Little Whiteface Double (which runs along the backside of the ridge in the above picture and terminates next to the gondola), was a whole different world. While fascinating to see from a meteorological perspective, perhaps not the most fun visibility conditions.

    IMG_0265.thumb.jpg.0f992d364987df58945372494580d792.jpg

    A nice demonstration of the intricacies of orographic weather, though what wasn't as nice was when the flow switched post-frontal and socked in the entire mountain.

    Conditions today were similar to what bwt was reporting at Killington. Hard pack with loose granular that was surprisingly edgeable outside of wind affected areas. Mid mountain must have gotten a glaze of freezing rain, a few gondola cabins were completely glazed over while others were clear. Exposed areas at the top of the mountain were completely scoured, with Skyward totally closed due to the risk of unstoppable slide in the event of a fall. On the other hand, sheltered bump runs like Upper Empire were very solid, with some wind transported powder in the nearby Cloudsplitter Glades. Variability is definitely Whiteface's hallmark, but I do enjoy how formidable and unpredictable the mountain (and its weather) feels. Its a burly mountain and definitely keeps you honest.

    • Like 6
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