Boston Bulldog

After wading through pages of psuedoscience and copy-paste, I have one conclusion... we really need a storm to track

12 hours ago, J.Spin said:

With the conclusion of the lift-served ski season around here, I put together the north to south list of available 2024-2025 snow totals for the Vermont ski areas:

Jay Peak: 475”

Burke: 176”

Smuggler’s Notch: 368”

Stowe: 362”

Bolton Valley: 375”

Mad River Glen: 248”

Sugarbush: 281”

Pico: 233”

Killington: 252”

Okemo: 138”

Bromley: 168”

Magic Mountain: 127”

Stratton: 166”

Mount Snow: 145”

The resorts along the spine of the Northern Greens all reported 350”+ of snowfall on the season, with Jay Peak approaching 500”, so it was certainly a solid performance up here. It looks like snowfall totals were in the 200”-300” range for the Central Greens, which is probably in the decent/average range, and then season totals were in the ~150” range for the Southern Greens. It’s a bit tougher to find season totals for ski areas in other parts of the Northeast, but I did find that Whiteface reported 191” on the season, Cannon reported 174”, and Sugarloaf reported 167”. Many resorts either don’t post their season snowfall total or don’t have it available once they switch the website to summer mode, but everything else I found in a quick search had totals <150”: Wildcat 113”, Attitash 84”, Mount Sunapee 68”, Crotched Mountain 59”. There may be some areas out in the western New York lake-effect zones that had some decent season snowfall totals, but nothing popped up in a quick online search

Along with all his data on resorts in the western U.S., Tony Crocker’s website has a specific page for scoring the quality of the ski season in the northern half of Vermont. I put together the powder-adjusted scores for the A-tier ski seasons over the past couple of decades to put in perspective where this past season sits. In the list below, the first number is the overall powder-adjusted season score, and the number in parentheses is the number of A-tier weekends. This past season was around the middle of that pack with respect to its score, and it’s not too surprising that those other three snowfall seasons for which I’d been plotting our site’s snowfall data for comparison (plot posted below) are all in the list as well. All three of those seasons beat this past season in terms of overall ski season score though, with 2007-2008 being the standout. In terms of A-tier weekends, this past season did seem to punch a bit above its weight with 9 of them, and that’s clearly a nod to that stretch of winter weather consistency from the beginning of January right through the beginning of March. In Tony’s full table, you can clearly see all 9 of those A-tier weekends stacked together as a solid block during that period.

2000-2001: 70 (13)

2007-2008: 62 (9)

2014-2015: 56 (11)

2010-2011: 56 (10)

2002-2003: 54 (7)

2018-2019: 54 (8)

2024-2025: 49 (9)

2012-2013: 47 (7)

2013-2014: 47 (7)

2017-2018: 46 (7)

2016-2017: 46 (7)

Looking at Tony’s full table of Vermont snow conditions, it was interesting to note that this past season was the first A-level ski season in quite a while – that stretch of five seasons prior to this one is actually the longest period in his records without an A-level result. Checking the snowfall data for my site, it’s not that snowfall was really all that low during those seasons (the mean snowfall for that stretch was within 5% of average), but presumably the winter weather consistency just wasn’t there for A-level status to be obtained. Using the snowfall data for our site as a reference point, A-level ski seasons can certainly be achieved even with snowfall dipping as low as ~10% below average, as revealed by the 2012-2013, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015 seasons. So, consistency in wintry temperatures can apparently go quite a long way. If you can combine both decent snowfall and solid temperature consistency, that’s when you get into some of those really high scoring seasons.

I had never seen Tony’s site before… great stuff!

On 6/27/2025 at 10:59 AM, J.Spin said:

 

 

The data I’ve seen indicate that snowfall was decent at most low and high elevation sites around here for the 2023-2024 season, and it looks like it was just the valley snowpack that was on the lean side. The 2023-2024 mountain snowpack appears to be fine based on the Mt. Mansfield Snow Stake data. The black lines on the plot below are for the average snowpack depths and the 2023-2024 snowpack depths, and the red line is for the data from the current season. The 2023-2024 data certainly has its ups and downs, but it comes out pretty close to the average overall. At least for the Northern Greens, it wasn’t really the snowmaking that made it a decent ski season (snowmaking only covers a tiny fraction of a resort’s total terrain anyway, so it can’t really turn an awful season into a good one). In this case it seems that there was sufficient natural snowfall and snow preservation to make for a decent mountain snowpack, which goes along with that additional elevation temperature buffer that PF mentions.

What a bizarre winter that was, an incredble hot start wiped out by an insane cutter. The meltout in early March felt like armageddon for the ski season and then boom a huge finish with three high elevation bombs (and an eclipse). I don't think we do as well the next time we pull a +8.1, hopefully that's not for a very long time.

5 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

The new, state of the art WSF-M just achieved IOC in April. While the Space Force paid for it, NOAA is in talks with them. There are also other microwave imagery data still available to civilian agencies. Also, for the record, the decision to spilt the civilian and defense weather satellite programs was made in 2012 under the Obama Administration.

Unfortunately conjecture on potential future products and whataboutism does not fix the immediate gap in coverage we have right now going into the heart of Hurricane season. This short sighted decision will degrade forecasting and public safety immediately.

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

How has it improved predicted track accuracy?  I've seen zero improvement in that department.  That's what matters most out of anything.  Strength of storms they've been pretty accurate with for a few decades now even without microwave imagery.  

Track accuracy and cone narrowing from the NHC is probably the most noticeable improvement that has taken place in the past 20 years, take a look at what the cone looked like for Katrina when it entered the Gulf. Every bit of resolution for data matters immensely.

Microwave data for track accuracy with numerical modeling has also taken gigantic strides. Losing a reliable ability to place the exact center with high resolution (in the absence of in-situ radar and hurricane hunter data) will certainly have repercussions down the temporal dimension of outputs.

Intensity still remains the lowest skill forecast variable, which is no surprise given its stochastic nature. It will get so much worse without as frequent “under the hood” looks at the structure, especially as the observed increase in RI events globally continues.

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah about half of microwave imagery is gone as of Monday. It’ll have an immediate forecasting impact. 

 

Yeah this is a huge and totally unnecessary loss. RI forecasting in real time will take a major hit. While there are a few more microwave options potentially available, losing SSMIS will inevitably degrade hurricane forecasting skill. 

The hits keep coming

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Any specific station or you mean the entire state as a whole?

Couldn’t recall if that stat was just a single station or the whole state. I thought whole state, but the anomaly would be crazy high for such a large area. I’m assuming this is BTV or Morristown now that I’m thinking of it.

Insane statistic regardless, and pretty surprising that snowfall numbers were still pretty good up high. Lots of elevation dependent events that year

Hey all,

I recall a statistic going around last season that showed from Dec-Feb 2023-2024 Vermont was +7-8F above normal. I’m trying to pull that statistic, but NCEI historical climate reports are only showing me a +6.3F anomaly for Vermont as a whole for February. No info for Jan or Dec. I can pull average temperatures for the Dec-Feb period, but not temperature anomaly. Can someone point me in the right direction where to get the temp anomaly data for VT?

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Every once in a while I get a whiff of decaying and drying up (fresh) dog poop...usually it's not very pleasant but for some reason on a day like today its kind of refreshing...just further adds to this experience. 

That’s the summer in Manhattan experience baby!! Not refreshing 

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pin hole eyes can really produce some high end winds relative to pressure. Also the cdo is rather small too.

I am so curious what the winds are in this thing right now. Conventional wisdom would say that Erick is bombing out and maybe some insane wind gusts are wrapping around the eyewall. However, I can't help but notice the trochoidal wobbles of the pinhole eye. This circulation isn't fully stacked on a tiny axis centered within the pinhole eye just yet. Rather the eye is wobbling around within a larger local circulation, most likely a EWRC.  I trust the 125mph estimate for now  

Insane rate of intensification in the past hour. The EPac has delivered some ridiculous RI landfalls in recent years. While not quite Otis (and thankfully far away from major population centers), Erick is putting on one of the more remarkable RIs while approaching landfall in a long time 

NWS HeatRisk is slowly escalating from Sunday through Tuesday, though we still aren’t seeing Extreme values punching into New England just yet.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

Pressure only in the mid 990s and yet this is an absolute shellacking. Mid-latitude cyclones will be deeper in the winter due to increased hemispheric baroclinicity, so subtract a substantial amount of millibars if this storm came in winter, but goes to show how a Nor’Easter doesn’t need to be a tightly wound mega bomb to deliver huge QPF.

Let’s do it again in January. Classic bowling ball Miller B

Been a LONG time since the Boston Metro has gotten a blocked low, conveyer belt QPF bomb. Much different storm at the synoptic scale, but that radar across EMass looks like the March 2013 firehose. Huge returns pivoting in off the Bay, RI and South Coast slotting 

11 hours ago, tamarack said:

Because New England has very little of the same fire-type ecosystems.  The NJ pine barrens' sandy soil makes for late (and puny) green-up and slow decay of litter, along with loads of pitch pine.  Almost exactly 62 years ago (4/20/63), the barrens fires covered more than 20 times the area of the current blaze - 8,500 acres at last reports.

Long Island is also susceptible to the pine barrens burns, take a look at the Sunrise Fire of 1995. A major urban conflagration event won’t happen in New England, the Hamptons on the other hand….

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Winter in NYC is 1/1-1/15. 

Spent two winters in Manhattan now, and this seems generous. Not once did streets even get coated decently down here. I work in midtown, have never seen snow accumulate on the sidewalk when I leave the building. Fortunately back to snowier places next year 

Aspen Highlands is notorious for its signed but off-map glades and chutes. Came across this one tucked away in the trees of Temerity, really rolls off the tongue 

33 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

Nice couple days skiing locally in Vermont.  
Mount Snow Friday skied great.  Woods still had decent coverage and the bumps were excellent.  
Magic was fantastic yesterday most everything was open minus the really steep stuff.  Perfect corn! Got a little sticky in the afternoon on the exposed trails woods remained perfect with a little bit of shade.  Magic overall is steeper and lower elevation than Mount Snow so was noticeably more skied off.  Place is usually a great time when they have the snow, such fun unique terrain on par with Stowe/Smuggs/MRG. Just wish they got more snow! 

Always love that view looking down Goniff Glade. Magic is such a special mountain, so happy to see they figured out their lift problems 

Tucks was absolutely primo yesterday. Low 40s in brilliant sunshine led to a superb corn surface. Winds were angry at times but manageable, and the bowl was mostly protected from the southwesterlies.

Booted and skied Right Gully and The Chute (RG booter shown above). Chute is a legitimately terrifying ascent, thank god for crampons. Note the avy debris from a huge slide triggered by a rider on the headwall Tuesday. The Inferno race was ongoing on the Lip and Hillmans as well. Pretty insane to see race gates up on the summit cone!

Lower elevations are melting fast, get it soon if you want to be able to ski back to the car!

Pretty severe brush fire outbreak across Long Island today. They aren't strangers to wildfires out there though, they've had some big burns such as the Sunrise fire back in the 90s.

I do a lot of wildfire risk modeling in my line of work and it's always stood out to me that the risk in the pine barrens of New Jersey and Suffolk County NY is substantially higher than anywhere in New England. Saw a lot of talk this past Fall speculating if a large destuctive wildfire (with urban conflagration potential) would happen due to the drought - don't think it could happen in MA or CT, but the Hamptons are an area to watch in the future. 

Pretty awesome that MWAC added new zones to their observations coverage. Looked like some shooting cracks and major wumphing all around Smugglers Notch last weekend. Did anything big end up sliding in VT?

Looks like a big time upslope event should be in the cards after this powerful weekend storm passes. Deep occluded low over New Brunswick bringing in a prolific moist feed from the Maritimes.

I will always contend that the MRG ridgeline off the Single is some of the most exciting inbounds skiing in the East. Last weekend was no different - Fall Line, Paradise, and the plethora of cliffs and chutes as you push farther out were all in incredible condition. Also, the zone looked beautiful late Saturday afternoon as the sun backlit through altocumulus ahead of the incoming storm.

GFS is thumpier for CNE Friday night, both the primary drives farther north and there's a bit more of a handoff to a weak low sliding ENE off Cape Cod

27 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

10 years ago, when the Jinx started for us out west.  These maps bring back painful memories 

I remember for a while this storm looked dead - there was a moderate coastal storm right before it that everyone was complaining was gonna kick this robust setup OTS.

Then the 12z runs about 96 hours out or so had a HUGE NW shift… by 0z everyone EOR was in elation. Tons of noise leading up to game time, including the WOR head fake, but I’ll always remember the celebrations when it became clear that this wasn’t going OTS.