Boston Bulldog

Still lots of shear over Ophelia, but a pretty strong weakening trend in shear values. It's pretty easy to tell why this has managed to wrap up it's core a bit

Some initial guidance on Lee's eventual extratropical transition as it parallels the East Coast

3 hours ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

 

 

Cells are an average value of all their contents. If a cell has pressure values of 1024, 1028, 1010, 1015, and 948, then that cell will be given a value of 1005. Even though there's a 948 mb low in there.

There's probably some fancy math nuance to it that mets could chime in on, but I believe this is the gist of it (cell dimensions vary by model). 

 

Pretty spot on. Spatial gridding resolution for global model outputs are significantly more coarse than mesoscale models. This is especially true when compared to hurricane models like HWRF or HAFS that can "telescope" in on hurricanes and move with them in space and time with storm following nests.

Here is a great BAMS article on hurricane model "nesting" for those who want to learn more: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/103/3/BAMS-D-20-0134.1.xml

Tight pressure gradients, such as the inner core of an intense hurricane, are on the subgrid scale and thus the model will interpolate values for given variables to fill the gap between grid points. Interpolation algorithms will not be able to correctly render the pressure gradient surrounding the MSLP of an exceptionally deep TC, hence why we see so many models initialize runs at significantly higher pressures.

Lee already has an impressive inner core structure despite the E-NE shear its been dealing with

Brutal miss on the latest pass of GMI for Jose

Regardless, interesting discussion included in tonight's 11pm EDT package. Yet another innocuous spin-up in the subtropics defying expectations. A clean shave of Jose's convection is likely incoming tomorrow once Franklin draws closer. 

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112023
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023

Jose is a tiny tropical cyclone with the convective cloud tops only
extending 50 to 60 n mi across.  However, geostationary satellite
and microwave images indicate that the storm has a tight
circulation with evidence of a mid-level eye feature. A recent
ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the
system is so small that instrument likely can not resolve the peak
winds.  The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, which is above
the Dvorak estimates.

Jose is likely near its peak intensity.  There is no way Jose will 
escape the outflow associated with Hurricane Franklin, that is 
expected to begin affecting the small storm by midday Friday.  
Therefore, the forecast shows a steady weakening trend until it 
becomes absorbed by Franklin in about 36 hours.

The storm is moving northward at 11 kt and is moving in the flow 
between Franklin and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.  A 
faster motion to the north is expected until the system dissipates 
on Saturday.  The NHC track forecast is slightly to the west of the 
previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 32.7N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 35.5N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 39.9N  51.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Fritz

I will admit I am unsure if that is flight level winds or not. SFMR adjusted is 128kts

923.3mb per recon

EDIT: 140kts it appears. That's a category 5

230030 2855N 07057W 6982 02635 9491 +100 +059 141136 140 128 028 0

Stage is now being set for Idalia to organize significantly once it clears Cuba and enters the gulf

Now we are seeing signs of one, though the inner eyewall is very thick

No sign of EWRC yet. A run at Cat 5 is not out of the question today.

If an absurd RI episode happens over the fish, but there's a gulf storm brewing, did it even happen?

145mph...what a shocking update lol

3 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Last NOAA Dropsonde is labeled "SE Eyewall"

 

 

Now sonde #9 is labeled as in the eye. VDM will be telling

Not quite sure where the shear is decreasing narrative has come from. Currently the storm is dealing with moderate shear which is tilting the core despite the strong convection. We've observed several wrap up attempts that have failed so far, which is likely due to this ~15-20kts of shear, and some dry air still showing up around 800 hPa on dropsonde data.

There has been no observed decrease in vertical wind shear over the past 24 hours ahead of the system or over the system.

Idalia will remain under similar conditions as it lifts into the gulf. We may see a period of little to no shear as the flow switches direction while the tough approaches (likely when we will see the strongest chance for RI). From there the trough will begin to increase vertical shear again, this time southerly. However, favorable synoptic interaction with the equatorward entrance region of the jet streak that will be traversing the eastern US at this time will likely offset the negative effects of this southerly shear as Idalia approaches landfall thanks to diffluence.

Just speculating here, but I wonder if this southerly shear and dry air behind the system at landfall would eat away at the back eyewall upon approach, as we have seen with so many other gulf "halficane" landfalls in recent years

EDIT: Fixed poleward to equatorward

Wow, it looks like all systems are go tonight. Very interested in what recon shows regarding the character of this developing core.

60mph and 992mb.

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Idalia's center has become embedded beneath a large burst of deep
convection, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures as cold as -82
degrees Celsius.  NOAA buoy 42056, located just to the east of the
center, has reported maximum 1-minute sustained winds as high as 45
kt within the past hour or two.  The anemometer height of the buoy
is 4 meters, so converting the wind to a standard 10-meter height
indicates that Idalia's intensity is now up to at least 50 kt, which
is the initial intensity for this advisory.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Idalia in a few
hours.

The center has been moving erratically since earlier today, and may
have even sagged southward, pulled toward the recently developed
deep convection.  A northward motion is expected to begin on Monday
and continue through Tuesday as Idalia moves between a mid-level
trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and strengthening ridging
over the Greater Antilles.  After 48 hours, a gradual turn toward
the northeast and then east is anticipated due to a deeper trough
that is expected to swing across the Great Lakes.  No significant
changes were required for the updated NHC track forecast compared
to the previous prediction.  The spread among the track models
remains relatively low, and the official track continues to lie
closest to the ECMWF and HCCA consensus aid.

Idalia is sitting over very warm waters of about 30 degrees
Celsius, and when it moves northward, it will be over the even
deeper warm waters of the Loop Current in 24-36 hours.  Although
the trough over the Gulf could impart some shear over the system,
this is likely to be offset by upper-level diffluence.  Idalia has
already strengthened more than anticipated, and the environment
looks ripe for additional intensification, possibly rapid.  The NHC
intensity forecast has been increased and lies at the upper bound of
the guidance.  The new prediction now shows a 95-kt hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 48 hours, but it should be stressed
that additional strengthening to major hurricane strength is
becoming increasingly likely before Idalia reaches the Gulf coast
of Florida.  Interests within the storm surge and hurricane watch
areas are urged to prepare for possible significant impacts and
monitor future updates to the forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane by the time it reaches
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be near or at major
hurricane strength when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida.  The
risk continues to increase for a life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the west coast of Florida
and the Florida Panhandle beginning as early as Tuesday.  Storm
surge and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the
west coast of Florida and the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and
residents in these areas should monitor updates to the forecast and
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Scattered flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern
Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall may
lead to flash flooding across portions of the Carolinas Wednesday
into Thursday.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far
western Cuba late Monday.  Heavy rainfall is expected across
portions of the eastern Yucatan and western Cuba and may produce
areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 19.8N  85.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 20.7N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 22.2N  85.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 24.2N  84.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 26.8N  84.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 29.6N  82.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/0000Z 32.0N  80.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/0000Z 34.3N  73.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 34.4N  67.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

Well timed microwave pass gives us a good look under the hood

Dry air to the north still remains upshear of the storm. While this recent pulse is the most impressive we've seen, Idalia hasn't done much to moisten the environment ahead of it, as such this dry air will continue be pushed into and entrained within the circulation. Unlikely that this current convection over the center will maintain itself long enough to facilitate substantial organization before dry air eats away at it a bit.

No recent microwave data to confirm this, but IR satellite seems to indicate that Franklin may be about to clear out its eye. CBs have been making full rotations around the eyewall in recent hours. Perhaps the eastern eyewall disruption has been alleviated

TD-6 has been upgraded to Gert...unfortunately. Needless to say I don't think this one's going to put up a lot of ACE

Tropical Storm Gert Special Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1200 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023

Recent satellite wind-derived data indicated that winds in the
northeast quadrant were a little over 35 kt.  Conventional enhanced
infrared imagery showed cooling cloud tops of -85 Celsius in the
same region of the cyclone.  Accordingly, the depression is
upgraded to a tropical storm on this Special Advisory.

No changes to the forecast track and intensity philosophy are
required.  Since the environment is still expected to be
hostile with very strong westerly shear during the next day or so, 
Gert should degenerate into a remnant low later today, and 
dissipate by Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0400Z 16.7N  55.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 16.8N  57.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

One final note I would like to add is that I was an economics major in undergrad. When I was interning under Ryan in early 2020 as a senior in college, I became aware of the vast interdisciplinary opportunities for atmospheric scientists in the private sector. Until that point I had been toying with the idea of pivoting into the field, but had several concerns. Learning about those opportunities solidified my desire to commit to Atmospheric Science and attend graduate school. Now I've been able to leverage both degrees to begin work in a niche at the interface of both economics and meteorology that I had no idea existed a few years ago.

Long story short, the field is much bigger than it appears at first. While at face value it may seem like your options are 1)TV, 2)Academia, and 3)NOAA/NWS, the value of meteorologists to almost ANY sector is very real. These sectors are hiring more Mets every year, take a look at how Citadel has dramatically increased their Met team in recent decades. As the risk exposure for companies to weather only grows in the future, demand will continue to rise.

To anyone still in school who is interested in Meteorology but is either enrolled in a different field, feels like it is too late to pivot, is intimidated by the math, or concerned about a perceived lack of career opportunities, I would encourage you to give it a go. I almost didn't pursue because of those exact reasons and my ignorance was proven very wrong.

New red tag in the house!

I first found this board in high school during the lead up to February 8th 2013. Little did I know that I was going to be exposed to a bevy of meteorological information (and banter) that helped to transform a hobby into a passion. As of last week, that passion has turned into a career.

It was on these boards that I first learned where to view model data, was exposed to basic mesoscale and synoptic processes, and sifted through dozens of random acronyms describing how people think a storm will perform (though several of those still remain a mystery). During college I ended up reaching out to @CT Rain with questions about what it takes to become an Atmospheric Scientist. The subsequent mentorship he provided me with was absolutely critical in helping me become a graduate student in the field. I completed my M.S last week and will be heading down to NYC to work as a meteorologist in the private sector. While I rarely contribute on here, I owe a lot to this board. It was a critical part in my journey to becoming a meteorologist.

Some pretty remarkable Integrated Water Vapor Transport values associated with the modeling for our future system. Regardless of SLP track, the San Gabriels should get good drink. Primary concern would be mudslides if these depictions verify

Dora has completed its EWRC and has restrengthened into a Category 4 storm with winds of 145mph. Beautiful presentation on IR satellite right now

Don's structure has rebounded once again this AM

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Definitely a well defined storm but I doubt the winds are over 50 kts. These upper latitude storms are known for having lower surface wind speeds (in relation to appearance) bc the lack of deep tropical convection and more stable environments surrounding them (due to cooler water) doesn’t pull sustained winds to the surface efficiently. There have been several donut storms recently in the upper Atlantic, always find them fascinating

It does seem like these mid-latitude systems are able to develop coherent vortexes and organized convective bands/eye features more easily than say a developing wave/TS in the MDR. Probably likely that this is a function of the Coriolis parameter increasing with latitude. Perhaps the presence of more baroclinically unstable profiles at higher latitudes as Windspeed alluded, combined with increased ease of achieving vortex coherency allows for these donut storms to form. So many examples over recent years, some quite impressive