Boston Bulldog

Hoping it works out, though BTV did cut down totals a bit after mentioning a potential shorter duration event trend in their AFD.

BTV blew the upslope horn on the latest AFD Overall, snow totals look to range from less than an inch in the immediate valleys to 1-2 feet for the highest peaks. Most of the snow will fall during the back end of the storm.

While the upslope has seemingly been baked in for a few days now, synoptics have been ticking a bit better for NNE folks in recent runs. The mid level coastal transfer remains a bit of a mess but has trended towards a more coherent and dynamic CMC like solution. I do expect Canadian guidance to back off a bit though.

Pasty synoptic snow followed by persistent upslope would be a fantastic way to rebound from this thaw

Good sign that random bombs are showing up on guidance. A signal should coalesce as we get closer

Despite the coastal system passing well south, I noticed that as the models began to depict an offshore stronger system, there was a bit of an “upslopey” look that developed. It’s likely the deeper intensity of the coastal storm meant that the NW flow got moistened by Atlantic moisture wrapping in from Atlantic Canada. If there’s cold air in place and a strong low over Atlantic Canada, it’s gonna snow along the northern spine of the greens

BTV did end up issuing WWAs for the Champlain valley south of Burlington, likely a fluffy 5-6 in the areas most favored by the banding.

The Champlain lake effect machine has been turned on!

Would assume Blue Hill Observatory was the jackpot

Was on the wrong side of the CF in Canton for a while today, but have made up for it in this band. Dumping

Just drove across CF near route 138/Blue Hill. White rain east, 1+” west and side roads slushy/covered

35 and ocean effect rain

Just to the north of me sadly. Only occasional flakes right now. BHO likely getting pasted

Kicked off an obs thread… hoping there are enough flakes around this evening to justify! NOTE: This was done independent of the zonked NAM run

Across snow starved SE New England, this system has played with the heart strings of disillusioned snow enthusiasts. An incredible longwave setup with a less than ideal shortwave configuration. Late night celebrations at big NW ticks, deep late morning depression at 12z regressions. Frequent NAMings (another one might be underway right now). The SREFs have made an appearance (forgot those existed). The “coastal” low has even been depicted as far east as the Flemish Cap in recent days… and yet here we are with some hope for a Christmas surprise. The tracking has been brutal, and the potential payout for many is likely to be questionable to say the least. Despite all this, many are still in the game for 1-3” according to BOX, with some model depictions illustrating higher potential for eastern zones. Hoping to spark some good juju and break out the nowcast from the angsty cesspool the discussion thread has been over the past week. At the minimum it will likely be festive for some in the days leading up to Christmas, a vast improvement from recent years! Also congrats Hazey

Festive OES flakes and 33 south of Ponkapoag in Canton. @HimoorWx and I generally benefit off of improved elevation in these marginal setups, hoping that is the case again

Every tick counts in the upper levels. The more you can buckle the flow downstream of the trough axis, the more the baroclinic leaf can develop to the NW. While the actual SLP doesn't trend a ton from 18z to 0z, the precip shield is definitely more expansive

Angel on one shoulder telling me it's just the NAM, don't look too deep into it. Devil (weenie?) on the other shoulder telling me to go all in on this trend because we have better sampling now....

Negative trough at 84 hours. That’s a substantial change

Hazey bomb

Looks like the trough on 6z GFS actually trended a bit better than 0z, but the SLP development and evolution is significantly more realistic than at 0z. No spurious convective mass modifying the surface evolution

I wish that is the case! Idk, this configuration just doesn't scream cyclogenesis close to NC. We need a sharper and deeper trough. And we need that to trend quickly. Decent move from 18z I guess

I have a few caution flags on the improved 0z GFS run. Watch where the SLP develops - it congeals on some spurious convection that forms off of FL, helping shunt the ocean storm a bit NW Sure the upper level changes are there, but I don't think they support such a substantial shift without the convective feedback

Slight tick better at upper levels. We should know by 12z tomorrow if this is the start of a trend back or just noise. Probably the latter?

Yeah sure GFS blew at 0z. You never see a coastal bomb show up every single run for days on end. Synoptic errors are so huge at this juncture, but at least there is persistence surrounding a *threat*. The signal continues to grow stronger. Even 0z keeps all the necessary pieces on the playing field, that’s all I need right now