WxWatcher007

We’re better off than we were two weeks ago, but it’s still objectively ugly, especially in the eastern and central Atlantic as a result of stability and mid level dry air more than anything. It’s a false start. We need to be patient and see if this advertised pattern change is realized. If it’s not, we’re probably cooked for anything well above normal. I think hyperactive is off the table.

Basin still sucks right now.

It’s become a broken record at this point, but the Atlantic is just too hostile right now.

Today was very impressive here. High of 98.5 and the humidity was about as high end as you can get around here.

I wouldn’t blame ‘em. I’ve been outside all morning and I usually like testing my physical limits of heat and cold—it’s rough for me.

This is real heat out here. Contractor had to stop work the house was so hot. VP2 says it feels like 110 outside lol

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more limited associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. While some gradual development of this system is possible over the next couple of days, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Papin

Looking pretty disorganized this morning.

Amazing how everything that spins in the PAC is blowing up. Seven hurricanes out there so far lol.

Just a couple sprinkles where I was. I guess I’ll have to take what I can get lol.

Stein did me dirty today. That’s a nice line that developed just a few miles south of me.

Much different depiction at 12z but I’ll tell ya, I think this is a more likely long tracker to watch if it remains weak early and fails to gain latitude while that trough lifts out next week. Too strong too soon and Early, but just a thought that could be wrong lol.

A generally conducive environment, as the NHC said, but not a slam dunk right now if this muddles its way to the central Atlantic.

It woke me up, but I know that's one for the weenie folder and not the analysis folder.

I'll see myself out now.

Tropical folks probably shouldn't post here That said, even without a hurricane (Gloria '85/Bob '91) we've been on a relative heater with impactful tropical. Setting aside last season (post-tropical Ida and MEHenri), we've had Isaias '20, Sandy '12, and Irene '11. That's not bad for a region with some of the longest tropical return times in the US.

We have an invest with the strong tropical wave that left the coast of Africa this weekend. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde islands is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form around the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin The GFS is most aggressive with development so far, while the other operational guidance have nothing noteworthy and a modest ensemble signal for development. As is usually the case with these early systems, there's high uncertainty 10 days out let alone 5. That means the long range weenie or totally dead runs are pretty meaningless. It is convectively active, but we'll need to see if there's any meaningful organization taking place in the next few days.

I knew the weenies would come out At least the GFS finally threw some chum in the water for us.

Let’s save the annual morality debate until there’s actually a storm please.

Same here. Brutal.

Looking north toward the cell near Springfield

I have this, thanks. I’m basically looking for 1999-2022 anomalies.

Big heat here today. High of 95.5 so far.

I said on July 31 that things were starting to look better as we approach mid-month, and today we are gradually seeing conditions improve. It's happening fastest in the western Atlantic and it's much slower in the eastern Atlantic. We're not quite at a broadly favorable environment yet, but the dead pattern from late July has ended in my estimation. First, we're starting to see the basin moisten. This is critical, both for allowing moisture and instability to build. Unlike a few weeks ago, we are seeing convective activity. There's still a lot of dry air in the central and eastern Atlantic, but there's just enough space for two robust waves, one of which has a chance to develop. Rather than look at the entire basin again, I just want to highlight three areas worth watching with a casual eye. 1. Orange in the eastern MDR This is the best chance of tropical genesis in the next 10 days. The NHC has designated a wave that left the coast of Africa yesterday with 40% odds to develop in the next five days. Again, we're looking at the wave closest to Africa here. Critically, there is a leading wave that is convectively active, helping to moisten the environment. Shear has relaxed in the region, SSTs are decent, and as a result the guidance has had a solid signal for TC genesis in the last few days on operational and ensemble guidance. The Euro operational has backed off a bit on development, but it looks like the GFS is leading right now with a more accurate depiction of the activity off Africa so far. That has limited utility as we need to see if there's actual organization that can take place in the next couple of days, but for now, it's worth watching. I'd place odds of development at 50%. 2. Atlantic Coast (next weekend) This one is a longer shot for development, but both operational and ensemble guidance has had a signal for a deep trough to come off the coast this weekend and spur the development of a low. If something could cutoff or pop further south near the Carolinas, there could be some subtropical development. This signal looks more baroclinic in nature, could be something to watch for fun if you're a weenie like me as we get closer to the weekend. I'd place odds of development at 15%. 3. Gulf of Mexico (late week?) Finally, there's not much of a signal here as the GFS tries to bring a small area of vorticity into the Gulf midweek. It goes over a maxima of OHC in the area, so if there's less shear than expected maybe something quick could spin up. Nothing worth taking seriously at the moment. I'd place odds of development at 5%.

Is there a place where I can get detailed historical SST plots for the region? This is OT from the heat/humidity/drought, but 26C seems much further north than usual, though there's no depth under that.