WxWatcher007

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2:45 CBS

Let’s gooooo

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a frustrating pattern. Instead of developing a nice low to the south, this whole thing just presses SE and kicks it OTS. This effing season can end now. 

Cutters, precip chasing cold, storms bombing too far east/too late. Big rainers. Aside from a fluke storm here it’s another ratter. 

That said, I hope the NNE peeps get clobbered. I’d chase if I weren’t so done with anything wintry. Also, March Madness. 

11 minutes ago, nj2va said:

UVA proving why they should have never been in the tournament. Seton Hall, St John’s or Providence should be playing tonight. 

Some programs you can almost bank on collapsing/underachieving in March. Despite the championship, UVA is one of those programs IMO. 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To the glue factory.

Hydro risk far higher around here, especially if we can get a cutoff close enough next week after the weekend rainer. 

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol… oh boy. 

 

All my foolishness aside, it does look like a legitimate possibility to see some measurable here in the lowlands, especially if it’s timed overnight Fri/Sat. That said—let’s see where this is Friday.

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Your high def above. Below normals are terminated like a T-100. Lowered into hot metal.

ACATT slowly capitulating by Saturday’s rainer?

Speaking of floods, the benchmark flood.

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Hasnt been right all winter.   JB basement model there.

At least it gives us another wiping option. 

1-ply Euro AI if you want to be bold

2-ply GFS if you want an economical option 

3-ply Euro Classic if you want a luxury wiping experience 

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’re getting a sneak peak of its plan to destroy humanity by drowning us? 

Usually the deluge doesn’t come until Christmas so maybe it knows something we don’t 

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno what that model's acclaim is supposed to be  ( Euro AI) other than the "A" and the "I" in the title, but I haven't seen a model run of that thing yet that didn't have a cold biased wintry profile that only gets deeper and more triggering out in time.

I'm not impressed with it so far

I’m totally screwing around.

4 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Pivotal is having some kind of issue handling QPF mapping on the Euro AI. I don't think this is correct. Methinks there is a bug afoot!

Can you imagine?  

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meanwhile Euro Op AI went weenie at 00z. Starting this weekend.

Of course Skynet waits until it’s a winter weenie wasteland in New England. Palm trees and parakeets in coastal CT and bodies being revealed as the permafrost up north is blasted by Morch.

Fortunately, unlike the non-sentient models this one’ll learn from it’s epic winter pattern forecasting mistakes. 

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Well my area is out but not New England.

We out. On to spring in SNE.

10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

It's ripping!

Rainfall rate briefly peaked at 2.62”/hr here

We pour

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully the tropics ramp up in June...until then its Fantasy Baseball and yard work.

High end activity will probably be hard given climo but the last decade suggests we see some pre/early season activity.

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Tropics are my least knowledgeable area so I'm not entirely sure what to expect. 

I mean naturally, if we're progressing towards La Nina you would expect an above-average season. While I don't think the warm waters factors into that aspect, the already well above-average waters are concerning in that should storms develop, they will have alot of fuel available. 

Then of course we'll have to see the prospects for landfalling storms.

Warm waters are an important factor, though often oversimplified. If the trend continues we’re looking at off the charts warmth in the Atlantic basin—it’s not just absolute SSTs but the extent of warm anomalies and depth across the MDR. It’s historic in its own right.

Here are OHC values from two eventual historic seasons—2017, 2020…and today. 

The AMO configuration looks big time. That can feedback into weaker trades. The Nina is huge obviously for reducing shear across the MDR. We have to watch SAL activity in June/July. Our big seasons tend to have activity at least trying further east during the summer.

Obviously let’s get to later in the spring to say it’s all systems go but I think we’re looking at a top ten season at least. The factors suggesting activity heading into the 2024 season are unlike what we’ve seen for recent active years. 

Grain of salt for these but anything close to this speaks for itself. 

5 hours ago, katabatic said:

So it ends. Let the long journey home commence. Based on additional snowfall yesterday and last night, ended up with 130 inches. Too expensive, somewhat irresponsible, totally impulsive, achingly laborious. And I will look back with nary an ounce of regret as this was the best tasting chicken soup for the soul I could have imagined. 

Congratulations on an all timer of a chase. There’s no price too high for a true once in a lifetime experience. 

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

That’s incredible. Horrifying and incredible.

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Wheeeee  

Congrats to the thriving moss imby. 

Could moss just get replaced by adding a shade wildflower/grass? 

46 definitely isn’t mild. Isn’t that close to climo? A high of 62 here is a different story. Much more cloudy here now after a pretty sunny afternoon. 

Where’s Pope to talk about the temp bust? 

62 and sunny here. Great day out. 

8 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

I wouldn't mind if we get a few smokers like we did last warm season. At least it was interesting, and nice sunsets. 

That was wild. 

Looking toward Hartford 

NYC

40 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah let's be honest who wouldn't enjoy a good cane? Obviously not something really strong but a Category 1 or 2 would be fun. Category 3 and up gets dangerous.

It has been obscenely active in the Gulf, but aside from Isaias, the East Coast has been spared. Fiona could’ve been legit if the mid level pattern were slightly different and obviously Henri further west could’ve been more impactful here. 

I do think that this season will feature a more consistent Atlantic ridge and WAR but at this stage that’s fairly speculative. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I kid around, but I appreciate the power of mother nature. Would never want it to cause harm personally or to anybody else...but we appreciate the awe. If that makes sense.

People have been here for decades and still can’t understand it. The morality stuff is tedious.

Spectacular day. 65.4° with ample sun and a nice little breeze.