WxWatcher007

Recon descending now

It’s hard to tell via radar but there looks like there’s a fairly well defined low level circulation. 

After casually watching a window for TC genesis in the Gulf or off the SE coast the last week, the signal began to focus on disturbance spawned by a stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast. A weak area of low pressure has developed and Invest 92L has rising odds to become at least a moisture laden tropical depression as it meanders the next few days. Recon is scheduled to investigate later today.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of low pressure has 
formed about 100 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, and is 
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further 
development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form 
near the southeastern United States late today or over the weekend 
if the low remains offshore.  Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and 
southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal 
sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday.  An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This could also scale back the upper end of heat potential Monday 

Still skeptical of anything meaningful up this way. 

Area of interest right off SE coast now has 60% development odds. Most models are on board with something coming together. 

52 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Perfect.

Summah

1.25 and counting. Nearby house is over 1.5

Good light show

91L became a short lived TS, and the signal today has gotten stronger for some type of homebrew development with the lemon. The euro is also keying in on another low possibly forming further off the SE coast after. 
 

Homebrew area of interest odds up to 30%

I mean recon was in there. It checked all the boxes. It was slop, but def a classic early season short fuse TC. 

Delayed but not denied 

Just hit 90 here

I’m probably the biggest NHC naming defender here, but at least at the time it was named, Andrea was a joke. In the 24 hours or so before being named I recall that system being close to a TC, but when it was named it was little more than a swirl devoid of nearby convection.

Barry was slop, which is what you’d expect in June, but it was legitimate. Recon found a sharp wind shift, there was persistent convection, and eventually recon sampled TS force wind. It made landfall as a depression. You’re not going to get a ton of ACE or eye candy from a subtropics swirl and a low that was the beneficiary of BoC magic in June.

31 minutes ago, RDRY said:

What is the significance of terminating DoD satellite data? Will it affect forecasting?

https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2025/06/28/Defense-Department-ends-satellite-data-hurricane-experts/7881751141308/

Yes—and likely in a significant way.

Although there are other satellites that provide microwave data, losing these specific streams (which were delayed due to push back from folks within NHC/NOAA) will keep forecasters from being able to use microwave data in some instances to get a center fix or understand realtime changes occurring in a TC. Imagine what looks like a rapidly intensifying hurricane on our doorstep with recon six hours away, or a system that looks to be organizing at a faster clip or completing an eyewall replacement cycle. MW can get us real meaningful info when we need it. 

Also, the quality just isn’t as good at times due to where the scans occur. There’s that too. Lol

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Spraying sucks. No.

Attract more dragonflies. 

I'm not in a rural area by any means, but I still try to create an environment that doesn't disturb nature too much. The last two years I've had a resurgence of fireflies, rabbits, and pollinators. 

The fireflies have had a banner year so far. Not sure how much my mowing habits contribute lol. 

Gulf or SE coast remains worth watching. The signal for genesis is still there with the GEFS focused in the Gulf and Euro focused off the SE coast. Either could be right. 

Coastal areas of the Gulf and SE are now a lemon.

Every year I say the GFS is getting better with tropical, and then it does this crap.  

82/73

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The area of low pressure that entered in the Bay of Campeche early 
this morning (Invest 91L) has slowly improved in organization 
through the day. Convection had been mostly bursting on the southern 
portion of the circulation, but is more recently starting to fill in 
over the northern side. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission 
has been sampling the system this afternoon, and they were able to 
close off a circulation center, albeit with not a whole lot of wind. 
This wind field matches the satellite-derived scatterometer wind 
data at 1619 UTC which showed a closed circulation, but with peak 
winds of only 24 kt. However, given the improvement in convective 
organization with the well-defined circulation noted, advisories are 
being initiated on Tropical Depression Two this afternoon, with 
maximum sustained winds of 25 kt, matching the T1.5/25-kt estimate 
provided by TAFB.

The initial motion of the tropical depression appears to be off to 
the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. This motion with a slight bend a 
little more northward is expected through the weekend until the 
system moves inland over mainland Mexico just after 36 h. The track 
guidance overall appears to be in pretty good agreement, though with 
the ECMWF on the south end and GFS on the north end of the guidance 
envelope. The initial NHC track forecast splits the difference and 
is quite close to the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

The depression's wind field is still somewhat broad and in the 
formative stages. In addition, the environmental conditions are not 
ideal, with some 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear 
diagnosed by SHIPS guidance that should prevent more robust 
intensification of this cyclone. On the other hand, sea-surface 
temperatures are fairly warm (28-29 C) and there is ample mid-level 
moisture to sustain the convective activity. Thus, some slow 
intensification seems likely, and the intensity forecast shows the 
depression becoming a tropical storm before making landfall in 
Mexico. However, once inland after 36 h, the system should quickly 
weaken and dissipate by the early portion of next week over the 
rugged high terrain of central Mexico. This intensity forecast is 
largely in good agreement with the consensus aid HCCA and the most 
recent HWRF hurricane-regional model run. 

Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm 
before landfall, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical 
Storm Warning for a portion of their eastern Gulf coastline. 

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of 
the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in 
effect.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will 
impact portions of northeastern Mexico. This rainfall may produce 
isolated flash and urban flooding.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 19.3N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 19.7N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 20.8N  96.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 21.9N  97.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 22.1N  98.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Not a dream. It would likely put a relative lid on instability in MDR if it’s warmer to the N keeping it less active there than otherwise would be. We’ll see if temp pattern persists and how active MDR ends up.

I agree. It looks like a western basin type of season…

Looks like a pretty good wind shift to me. Probably will start getting advisories at 5 for a TD. 

A perfect 4th is probably mostly sunny skies, 85/64 or thereabouts. 

Some years ago I was on a hill watching fireworks and there was a thunderstorm way off in the distance. Perfect evening, fireworks booming with actual long distance lightning strikes illuminating the storm. That was about as good as it gets. 

GEFS and EPS

With a sprawling Atlantic ridge, we may need to watch to see if something gets steered northward/NW if a system develops off the SE coast. Usually with a trough off the coast that creates enough of a weakness to allow for a SE homebrew system to escape, but if the ridge builds in fast enough it could cut off an escape route. The 12z Euro shows this with a weak system getting pushed into the SE. On the GFS, the system develops in the Gulf and heads west, also illustrating the potential blocking power of the ridge.