WxWatcher007

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per the latest Euro Weeklies: After Humberto and Imelda wind down ~10/4-5, there looks to be a brief break overall. 

 However, don’t get too comfortable as activity markedly picks up again to above normal on the run in the Gulf, NW Caribbean, and SW Atlantic (including Yucatan, Cuba, NC/NE US Gulf coast, FL/SE US coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda) with 140% of normal 10/13-19 and 160% of normal 10/20-26. This would be a 3rd peak of sorts for 2025 should it verify. This active period would resemble a somewhat toned down version of the freakishly active late seasons of 2020 and 2005 and similar to 1950, 1878, and 1870 for that area.

10/13-19:

 

10/20-26:

Fits well with my peak season forecast. 

The Euro has been just another model for a long time now. Even though this turn was part of the envelope of possibilities, what’s particularly jarring was the Euro/GFS and their ensembles choosing the wrong path together inside 100 hours. That’s noteworthy imo. The AI models seem to have schooled the legacy guidance on this one. 

22 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

I never go against the Euro. 

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Unlike prior two runs, the 0Z Euro stays away from US.

 Also, unlike some hurricane model runs yesterday that curved back into SC/GA, the 0Z runs all stayed offshore that area.

6 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

She's just trying to fit in with the crowd. 

The Euro is just another model. Nowhere near its glory of a decade ago lol. With a well defined center now and slower motion, along with a weaker SE cutoff and stronger Humberto, it’s harder to see that escape route being closed. 

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET: stays OTS like every other UKMET and every Icon has done.

 Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL. 
 

0Z UKMET

ROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L        ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N  76.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 28.09.2025    0  22.0N  76.4W     1005            31
    1200UTC 28.09.2025   12  23.2N  76.9W     1003            35
    0000UTC 29.09.2025   24  24.6N  76.7W     1000            32
    1200UTC 29.09.2025   36  26.7N  77.1W      998            43
    0000UTC 30.09.2025   48  28.5N  77.4W      994            42
    1200UTC 30.09.2025   60  29.2N  77.3W      991            38
    0000UTC 01.10.2025   72  29.0N  75.9W      989            41
    1200UTC 01.10.2025   84  29.7N  73.4W      987            47
    0000UTC 02.10.2025   96  30.3N  69.6W      985            57
    1200UTC 02.10.2025  108  31.6N  64.5W      984            54
    0000UTC 03.10.2025  120  33.5N  59.8W      986            67
    1200UTC 03.10.2025  132  34.8N  57.0W      992            48
    0000UTC 04.10.2025  144  36.3N  56.0W      995            43
    1200UTC 04.10.2025  156  37.7N  54.4W      999            39
    0000UTC 05.10.2025  168  41.4N  49.5W      999            41

Euro pretty much on an island 

Sure ain’t something you see everyday  

4 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Yeah no models had this slow motion early on which is why they all showed the ULL pulling it onshore Monday night. At this point its so slow hunberto might be north east of it by the time it gets to the northern Bahamas amd yank it due east from there. 

Pretty bad performance by the gfs and euro on this one

And their ensembles. At relatively short range. 

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025
 
Humberto remains a large, powerful hurricane this evening, with a
spectacular satellite presentation.  The hurricane has a clear, 
19C, symmetric 25 nm wide eye that is surrounded by a white ring 
of very, cold (-73C) cloud tops.  The most intense deep convection 
associated with the eyewall appears to be just east of the surface 
center, where -78C (CMG) tops are discernible.  Impressive 
ventilation aloft is provided by dual outflow channels located over 
the north semicircle of the cyclone.  The latest subjective Dvorak 
data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the various UW-CIMSS objective 
estimates support holding the initial intensity at 140 kt.
 
Humberto could undergo inner core structural changes, which will
likely cause intensity fluctuations during the next 12-24 hours.  
In fact, an earlier GPM/GMI overpass revealed a hint of concentric
outer ring development, and the UW-CIMSS MPERC is indicating up to
a 78hance of another ERC event.  Afterward, the statistical and
skilled consensus intensity models point toward a gradual weakening
trend beginning around Monday.  Through the remaining period, 
further weakening at a faster pace is expected while the cyclone
becomes embedded in the strong upper-level westerly flow.
 
By the 60 hour period, Humberto should continue moving around
the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge located to 
the northeast of the cyclone and east of Bermuda.  By Tuesday 
night, Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward while the 
ridge mentioned above weakens and shifts eastward.  By mid-next 
week, Humberto should turn quickly toward the northeast to 
east-northeast in response to a major shortwave upper-level trough 
amplifying and moving out of the Canadian Maritimes and into the
northwestern Atlantic waters.  There remains quite a bit of
along-track spread beyond day 4, which is typically seen when
tropical cyclones move within the mid-latitude upper-westerlies and
commence a structural transition to an extra-tropical cyclone.
The NHC forecast is nudged toward the TVCA simple consensus and the 
HCCA corrected aid, and is close to the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 23.4N  62.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 24.1N  63.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 25.4N  65.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 27.1N  66.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 29.1N  68.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 30.9N  68.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 33.2N  67.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 37.0N  58.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 44.7N  41.4W   85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

9 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Base on my amateur eyes, and satellite photos, Nine's center looks very broad and disorganized right now. There is a closed low, but it is still a big mess. Wind shear seems to have let up a bit, but still exists. Plus Humberto is not far away, moving WNW at 10mph, at : 22.9°N 61.1°W. 

Nine is at Location: 22.4°N 76.5°W moving NW at 5mph. Can someone confirm on latest satellite that it looks more like NNW at this time as the cold front to the north west is blocking it from getting to the coast. 

 

 

I don’t think it’s broad looking at the sharper wind shifts on recon, but it is weak—probably because it’s only now starting to tighten up and convection is limited. 

Some evening analysis

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Although the convection is weak and disorganized, recon is now showing a much more well defined circulation, which if it holds will allow for gradual organization. 

Note how much tighter the circulation is in the image above, compared to some of the recon images posted earlier. You can also see a pocket of slightly stronger winds on the far eastern side of the system. Below you can see how the circulation is becoming better organized. Slowly. 

Convection is weak, but there has been some firing of stronger thunderstorms near the center. 

Shear has remained an issue through the day, but analysis shows that the shear may be abating, especially near the center. 

TD9 is in one of the best thermal environments in the entire Atlantic, so if it can start generating deep convection over its tightening center it should gradually intensify. 

While I am posting the SHIPS here, there looks to have been a bit of an uptick from hurricane guidance in overall intensity over the coming days. That's something we'll need to pay attention to, with the caveat that the trough and possible dry air will continue to lurk and will likely put a cap on intensity. 

 

Now for the track. There is increasing confidence that future Imelda will in fact turn away from the SE coast, but there is still a lot of uncertainty on how close the center gets to the coast and critically, the speed of the turn. Most guidance now turns the system away from the coast and accelerates it east into an Humberto created weakness. 

But within this evolving track forecast there are two diverging camps. The first, and most numerous, is one that easily follows Humberto out to sea. The second, which is led by the Euro and Euro AI to an extent, turns the system more slowly and allows a ridge to build over the top and close the escape route. The result is Imelda being turned back toward the coast. 

There aren't a lot of members that are held back, but the ones that do are pretty strong. 

So while it very well may be the case that this does turn and accelerate out to sea, there's still uncertainty. Remember, the models struggled with this inside of 100 hours. I'm not sure we should be locking in anything 5+ days out yet. Additional recon and finally having a well defined center should help with both track and intensity guidance. 

Finally, just because this is likely to stay offshore initially, that doesn't mean no impacts. TS force winds, coastal flooding, and flash flooding are still squarely hazards for coastal FL, GA, and the Carolinas. Just slight track changes could make the flood threat more impactful along the coast. 

Although the convection is weak and disorganized, recon is now showing a much more well defined circulation, which if it holds will allow for gradual organization. 

Note how much tighter the circulation is in the image above, compared to some of the recon images posted earlier. You can also see a pocket of slightly stronger winds on the far eastern side of the system. Below you can see how the circulation is becoming better organized. Slowly. 

Convection is weak, but there has been some firing of stronger thunderstorms near the center. 

Shear has remained an issue through the day, but analysis shows that the shear may be abating, especially near the center. 

TD9 is in one of the best thermal environments in the entire Atlantic, so if it can start generating deep convection over its tightening center it should gradually intensify. 

While I am posting the SHIPS here, there looks to have been a bit of an uptick from hurricane guidance in overall intensity over the coming days. That's something we'll need to pay attention to, with the caveat that the trough and possible dry air will continue to lurk and will likely put a cap on intensity. 

Now for the track. There is increasing confidence that future Imelda will in fact turn away from the SE coast, but there is still a lot of uncertainty on how close the center gets to the coast and critically, the speed of the turn. Most guidance now turns the system away from the coast and accelerates it east into an Humberto created weakness. 

But within this evolving track forecast there are two diverging camps. The first, and most numerous, is one that easily follows Humberto out to sea. The second, which is led by the Euro and Euro AI to an extent, turns the system more slowly and allows a ridge to build over the top and close the escape route. The result is Imelda being turned back toward the coast. 

There aren't a lot of members that are held back, but the ones that do are pretty strong. 

So while it very well may be the case that this does turn and accelerate out to sea, there's still uncertainty. Remember, the models struggled with this inside of 100 hours. I'm not sure we should be locking in anything 5+ days out yet. Additional recon and finally having a well defined center should help with both track and intensity guidance. 

Finally, just because this is likely to stay offshore initially, that doesn't mean no impacts. TS force winds, coastal flooding, and flash flooding are still squarely hazards for coastal FL, GA, and the Carolinas. Just slight track changes could make the flood threat more impactful along the coast. 

Humberto C5

Second of the year.

My God. That’s as good as it gets structurally. 

About as impressive as you’ll ever see in the Atlantic basin.

You’d be hard pressed to find many Atlantic hurricanes with a better satellite appearance than this. I’d be shocked if this wasn’t a 5 at 5pm.

17 minutes ago, Newman said:

That 12Z GFS run definitely on the far western edge of the NHC cone and envelope, Florida East Coast most certainly gets in on outer rain bands in that scenario.

TS Watches are up along coastal Martin to Volusia counties in East-Central Florida (Melbourne CWA)

Yeah there are still some pretty substantial differences even at short(ish) range here. I don’t think there’s any one model that’s definitively right or wrong right now, though it’s obviously much higher confidence at the moment that there will be some kind of eastward turn at the coast. 

Definitely a summer feel out here today. 

How about we keep the wishcasting and nonsense bust posting out of the thread? 

Recon just submitted a VDM. I think that should be enough for a designation at 11.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 13:54Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2025
Mission Identifier: Ptc09 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 28 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 13:04:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.00N 76.00W
B. Center Fix Location: 129 statute miles (208 km) to the ENE (71°) from Camagüey, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,144m (10,315ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 25kts (From the SE at 29mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NA
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 27kts (From between the SE and SSE at 31.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SE (135°) of center fix at 13:02:18Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 40° at 25kts (From the NE at 28.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (314°) of center fix at 13:08:03Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The last frame of 6Z Euro has this stop its ENE movement and then suddenly drift back due W fwiw as Humberto accelerates away and the. the upper high builds enough to its N to change the steering. 

 Although this is the only major op doing this, 40% of the 6Z EPS do not escape and most of those stall not too far offshore and then attain a W component of motion.

And should that happen, the longitude of future Imelda will be key to whether this gets steered back to the coast or merely meanders until the trough eventually arrives to kick it into the North Atlantic. Like @donsutherland1 I’m skeptical of it getting steered back west right now but it’s on the table. 

Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

Looks like a center is going to form just north of Cuba on the north Cuban Coast / south of the Bahamas and lift north bound.

It looks like there may be enough of a wind shift to designate this at 11am. 

SHIPS has some decent odds of RI occurring relative to climo. Maybe something to watch as the organizational trend continues today.

As I hope we all learned yesterday, we’re nowhere near having all the answers on the medium and longer range track. From the very beginning we knew Humberto and the steering pattern made this a highly complex forecast and some of us kind of settled into believing a false consensus on the models(EPS/GEFS)—myself included. I don’t think we know what’s going to happen yet. We just have to keep monitoring and communicating the track uncertainty.

There’s also fairly substantial intensity uncertainty. Recon is in the PTC and is finding westerly winds now so it’s on an organizing trend even if the low is still broad. 

We will eventually have a defined enough center for a TC designation. Importantly, this is on the edge of the deep convection firing north of Cuba. In this kind of situation we have to watch for center reformations if deep convection continues, which here could significantly impact track. 

One thing is clear: the PTC is organizing at a steadier pace given the recon findings and satellite appearance.

Euro AI is back to the idea of running this up the coast as it gets trapped under the ridge and the Euro at 144 seems like it wants to trap future Imelda as well. Not worth much at this time but still something to watch. If the ridge doesn’t roll over to block the escape route future Imelda goes right OTS.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Overnight runs mostly going with the stall at the coast and then move east idea. Euro AI the notable exception but I don’t think it’s very good with tropical?

It had the stall and move east before the Euro/GFS and ensembles. The AI models have actually been excellent this season on balance. Of course, we’ll see how this all verifies.

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z CMC stays OTS unlike 12Z, which looped back to NC

 So far, all OTS with only Euro left

Canadian starts out that way, but then gets trapped under the ridge and a much weaker version of future Imelda gets pulled into New England. 

Verbatim stuff aside, if this becomes a situation where it will be a close scrape of the SE coast, we’ll need to pay close attention to the orientation of this ridge and whether it closes off an escape route as Imelda tries moving eastward. I was always skeptical of Imelda getting well inland and I brought the ridging closing the escape route up as a possibility yesterday. While I’d be skeptical of some sort of threat further north, it really seems like anything is on the table. 

Anomalous ridging does anomalous things. Sometimes.  

Humberto is a little west of track and is now forecast to become our second category five hurricane of the season.