WxWatcher007

Every year I say the GFS is getting better with tropical, and then it does this crap.  

82/73

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

The area of low pressure that entered in the Bay of Campeche early 
this morning (Invest 91L) has slowly improved in organization 
through the day. Convection had been mostly bursting on the southern 
portion of the circulation, but is more recently starting to fill in 
over the northern side. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission 
has been sampling the system this afternoon, and they were able to 
close off a circulation center, albeit with not a whole lot of wind. 
This wind field matches the satellite-derived scatterometer wind 
data at 1619 UTC which showed a closed circulation, but with peak 
winds of only 24 kt. However, given the improvement in convective 
organization with the well-defined circulation noted, advisories are 
being initiated on Tropical Depression Two this afternoon, with 
maximum sustained winds of 25 kt, matching the T1.5/25-kt estimate 
provided by TAFB.

The initial motion of the tropical depression appears to be off to 
the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. This motion with a slight bend a 
little more northward is expected through the weekend until the 
system moves inland over mainland Mexico just after 36 h. The track 
guidance overall appears to be in pretty good agreement, though with 
the ECMWF on the south end and GFS on the north end of the guidance 
envelope. The initial NHC track forecast splits the difference and 
is quite close to the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

The depression's wind field is still somewhat broad and in the 
formative stages. In addition, the environmental conditions are not 
ideal, with some 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear 
diagnosed by SHIPS guidance that should prevent more robust 
intensification of this cyclone. On the other hand, sea-surface 
temperatures are fairly warm (28-29 C) and there is ample mid-level 
moisture to sustain the convective activity. Thus, some slow 
intensification seems likely, and the intensity forecast shows the 
depression becoming a tropical storm before making landfall in 
Mexico. However, once inland after 36 h, the system should quickly 
weaken and dissipate by the early portion of next week over the 
rugged high terrain of central Mexico. This intensity forecast is 
largely in good agreement with the consensus aid HCCA and the most 
recent HWRF hurricane-regional model run. 

Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm 
before landfall, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical 
Storm Warning for a portion of their eastern Gulf coastline. 

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of 
the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in 
effect.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will 
impact portions of northeastern Mexico. This rainfall may produce 
isolated flash and urban flooding.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 19.3N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 19.7N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 20.8N  96.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 21.9N  97.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 22.1N  98.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Not a dream. It would likely put a relative lid on instability in MDR if it’s warmer to the N keeping it less active there than otherwise would be. We’ll see if temp pattern persists and how active MDR ends up.

I agree. It looks like a western basin type of season…

Looks like a pretty good wind shift to me. Probably will start getting advisories at 5 for a TD. 

A perfect 4th is probably mostly sunny skies, 85/64 or thereabouts. 

Some years ago I was on a hill watching fireworks and there was a thunderstorm way off in the distance. Perfect evening, fireworks booming with actual long distance lightning strikes illuminating the storm. That was about as good as it gets. 

GEFS and EPS

With a sprawling Atlantic ridge, we may need to watch to see if something gets steered northward/NW if a system develops off the SE coast. Usually with a trough off the coast that creates enough of a weakness to allow for a SE homebrew system to escape, but if the ridge builds in fast enough it could cut off an escape route. The 12z Euro shows this with a weak system getting pushed into the SE. On the GFS, the system develops in the Gulf and heads west, also illustrating the potential blocking power of the ridge. 

Just started a thread for 91L. It's also worth watching the Gulf and SE Coast next week for some homebrew potential. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles and operational models show a trough dipping in the south leading to TC genesis toward the latter part of next week. That's a climatologically favored genesis method, in addition to being in a climatologically favored region for TC development this time of year. 

It's also basically the only part of the basin not the subtropics that's warmer than normal. 

An organizing area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche now has 70% odds of development, with tropical storm headlines likely later today or tonight. 

Although it will be short lived, a landfall is expected Monday along the coast of Mexico.

Recon is en route to investigate. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Bay of Campeche (AL91):
Recent surface observations, satellite imagery, and radar data from 
Mexico suggests a well-defined surface circulation is developing 
with the area of low pressure located in the Bay of Campeche near 
the Mexican coastline. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity 
is also starting to show signs of organization. If these trends 
continue, a tropical depression is likely to form, possibly as soon 
as this afternoon, in the Bay of Campeche. This system is forecast 
to continue moving west-northwestward this weekend towards eastern 
Mexico, ultimately moving inland by Monday. An Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate the system, and 
interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this 
system. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for 
portions of the Mexican Gulf coast as soon as this afternoon. 
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rains are 
ongoing over portions of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, and will 
continue during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

After a quiet start, the basin is starting to heat up with homebrew opportunities. For the first time we have tangible areas to look at close to land. 

1. Invest 91L--Bay of Campeche magic is at it again, this time with a developing low taking shape this afternoon. Invest 91L is increasingly likely to become our second named storm of the year--a short lived one as it makes landfall along the Mexico coast on Monday. 

2. Gulf/SE Coast--There are growing signals that a trough will get hung up off the Gulf/SE Coast in the coming week, which could spark tropical development. This is a classic way to get early season homebrew off the SE coast or in the northern Gulf, and it's worth watching especially if it ends up in the Gulf. The SST anomalies across the basin are unlike recent years, but in much of the Gulf and off the East Coast, temperatures are very warm. 

6 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Not great, Bob. 

That's going to be my biggest loss with the NAM.

4 hours ago, FXWX said:

Thanks for the detailed history info...  I often incorporate it into short term (24 hr.) storm trends forecasts... Have found its winter precip products quite useful.  

The haters always said that forecasting was better 30 years ago…they’ll love it when the forecast is for 33 and rain and they wake up to 28 and ZR.

Yeah, pull the politics out of it—this sounds like a classic case of bureaucrats making decisions that don’t work in the real world. 

How many times have we sat here thinking tropical storm/hurricane X is “about to take off” or “is weakening due to an ERC” or “we need a center fix for the 00z models” only to have MW or recon data blow away our preconceived notions?

I mean my goodness. Who wants to try to forecast if a cane off the east coast of Florida is about to undergo RI based on that quality of data below when recon is six hours away?

Yeah about half of microwave imagery is gone as of Monday. It’ll have an immediate forecasting impact. 

What? That would be awful. 

I'm thinking this is a top 5 heat wave here in CT given the combination of high/low temperatures, humidity, and timing. 

Going in reverse chronological order

June 2025
July 2011
July/August 1995
July 1991
July/August 1975 

Edit: I'm thinking July 1911 should be somewhere in there, and if so, I'd probably take out 1995. 
 

New Haven hit 99?

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean we're talking 100F vs 99F

 

I just picked a random hot month...July 2011.

HFD 87.9
BDL 87.3

Both hit 103F on the hottest day.

Yeah, it doesn’t seem out of step with the surrounding areas. A little surprised it didn’t get 100 yesterday, but like you said it was literally a degree. Anything can happen when trying to achieve 100 around here.

Just had a bird somehow hit the solar panels on the roof. The other birds went absolutely crazy—they were incredibly loud for a few minutes. 

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

First 3 day heatwave since I’ve lived here. Uber impressive 

Really? That’s nuts. Not even 2011?

33 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The heat humper's are not so giddy today, Hate to see it.

We sad but we know we’re not Vegas or Phoenix. Couldn’t last forever. Some nice 85-90 days around the 4th would be good. Hard to believe but that’s just over a week away. Time flies. 

92.5° here at home

88 at New Haven with a heat index of 96. Nuts. 

Still 96 here at 7:20

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

They hit at least 99F so they're pretty much in line.

Yeah. Just couldn’t get up to 99.5. 

CEF 100

MMK 101

HFD 100

KWXW 100* (99.6  )