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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    We just suck this year smh. It is what it is.
  2. WxWatcher007
    Recon confirming that this is now extremely close to being a depression if not already one. Latest center fix puts it closer to the deeper convection. Still fragile, but likely already a TC imo. NHC wants to see this persist per the special discussion and I don’t blame them. Organizational attempts have collapsed numerous times thus far.
  3. WxWatcher007
    Nothing impressive at the surface, but recon is finding higher FL winds.
  4. WxWatcher007
    It took forever, but there’s enough for recon to do a center fix. This one is on the cusp of becoming a depression.
  5. WxWatcher007
    Based on visible imagery, and the latest set of recon observations, it looks like there is a very weak low level center. That said, this still looks very disorganized and maybe not quite worthy of a designation yet. edit: I’m probably too generous. Let’s call it a low level swirl
  6. WxWatcher007
    It’s still messy, but the 12z Euro tries to organize this into what I’m guessing is a depression this weekend. Not sure if it’ll pull the plug later in the model run though.
  7. WxWatcher007
    Recon en route again to see if there’s any organization.
  8. WxWatcher007
    Well keep in mind that climo shifts tropical genesis to the Gulf and western Caribbean too later in September and especially October. I think we know that reaching normal ACE or above active named storms will be a struggle given the hostile environment basin wide, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the later part of the season is destined to be dead too. Especially if AWB relaxes. It’s just something we’ll have to watch unfold.
  9. WxWatcher007
  10. WxWatcher007
    On the board! Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (1) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)
  11. WxWatcher007
    On the board! Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (1) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)
  12. WxWatcher007
    I agree. It has tried and failed, numerous times, to organize. It looks like it’s trying again this morning so we’ll see what recon finds later.
  13. WxWatcher007
    51.6 this morning.
  14. WxWatcher007
    Very pleasant night here. Hoping I can get into the 40s tonight.
  15. WxWatcher007
    I think the modeled venting could compensate for lower end SSTs, but we’ll see. I think a low end 3 would be the max for this but it’s just fun to finally watch something pop in this basin.
  16. WxWatcher007
    I’ve given up on the MDR at this point lol. I won’t believe anything there until it’s developed. Everything has fallen apart there. It’s extraordinary.
  17. WxWatcher007
    It has a chance.
  18. WxWatcher007
    EPS isn’t buying the op at 12z
  19. WxWatcher007
    Buckle up!
  20. WxWatcher007
    Look at this microwave imagery! We have a special advisory!
  21. WxWatcher007
    I’m still very skeptical 91L can pull it together. The MDR has been a disaster. I’ve kept saying it’s getting better but our current tire fire isn’t much better than what we had in July. That said, if I can get a couple on the board before September 10 I’ll feel better about my peak season forecast. That’s all that matters now to me.
  22. WxWatcher007
    Hmm…it’ll be interesting to see if the ensembles follow.
  23. WxWatcher007
    Recon is about a thousand feet off the decks trying to see if this one even has a pulse.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Bruh you are a trip and I love it Normally a warm tropical Atlantic and cool subtropics are a great combination for instability and tropical activity, but the North Atlantic became a furnace. This stuff is so much more than warm=good and cold=bad.
  25. WxWatcher007
    Yeah, I guess that’s something to keep in mind. Perhaps it stays so moribund that whatever’s left of it misses the trough completely and needs to wait for another ride…or the death blow.
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