WxWatcher007

Was just about to post. Pretty interesting drop. Would like to see what’s happening NE of the center.

Diving deeper into recon—I’m not sure if the NHC does anything at 8pm as they may want to make sure this isn’t a blip, but recon data suggests this is a TS with a closed LLC and multiple uncontaminated FL and SFMR reports confirming minimal TS winds.

Fred isn’t the strongest system ever but I’m impressed by how it has gotten itself off the mat. I expected it to an extent, but it’s really holding tough in the center in the face of moderate shear. Wind is one thing, but there’s a serious flash flooding threat for parts of the SE as this makes its way inland.

I was out while Fred was in the grave but I’m back now!

This is an open discussion IMO. Red tag or not your analytical posts should have a basis in fact/observation. I don’t think anyone should be above critique. How else would we learn anything? Anyway, recon is finally finding a LLC, albeit weak.

Surprised nobody posted. Will likely be a TD soon. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to updated the discussion of the low-pressure system northeast of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Grace, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Dominican Republic. 1. Updated: Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized this afternoon in association with a small but well-defined area of low pressure located about 160 miles northeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development, and if these development trends continue, a tropical depression could form tonight while the low moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph, near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island later tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Brennan/Brown

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently re-designated Tropical Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Grace, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea just to the south of Puerto Rico. 1. A small but well-defined low pressure system located about 175 miles northeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this low during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph, near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Berg

Could be. It’s still sheared but it’s looking better structurally and it’s over some of the warmest water in the basin.

What a mess. Recon on its way to examine further.

Elsa, Fred, and Grace (probably) not too long from now. That said, the other two managed a respectable recovery so it’s not out of the realm of possibility Grace does too, but high ceiling talk which I’ve admittedly been leading is off the table for now.

24 hours ago I couldn’t imagine it’d look better than Grace, but here we are lol

No need for a long post today Grace, having seen how well running into the buzzsaw of the Greater Antilles worked out for Elsa and Fred, seems to have every intention of trying it too. lol

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM... Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/ 10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory. SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

Fred has regained TS status.

Yep. Grace seems hell bent on taking the Fred route into the Greater Antilles buzzsaw. *shrug*

Slowly but surely, Fred is pulling itself together.

That’s awesome. Looks like tropical

Yeah—I wonder how, if at all, PV shear impacts Grace if it’s further south. Agree on the ridge in August given how big time it is but once we get to September and October that ridge probably opens the door to East Coast threats as troughs become more likely. I can see a situation where you get big ridge trapping waves and steering them west—>front comes east to weaken ridge and tugs TC northward toward east coast—>ridge rebuilds Another thing to watch is whether we really see ridging in maritime Canada in September. If we do, as the guidance seems to suggest, watch out. Not saying every system will be an EC threat, but this is a very strong signal for multiple threats should the steering pattern materialize during the peak.

That’s a simple explanation They had two radars on the flight so they would know.

Unbelievable that RIC is letting me down.

Such a sensitive forecast. It looked like a more poleward solution was on the table when the 12z guidance initialized more organized, and now it’s all shifted well south but could change quickly if there’s a center reformation or greater organization. Big changes all in the span of a few hours. Fascinating stuff.

What an incredibly sensitive forecast. Recon finds a mess of a system, and subsequently the guidance shifts south and effectively shreds Grace over the Greater Antilles. A lot to sort out because small changes will have big downstream impacts.

Weird recon flight.