WxWatcher007

That's why he's praying lol

Hard to believe a coating could underperform, but 0.00” here. Actually, not hard to believe at all. I was driving through the Berks this morning though and obviously a different look up there.

I don’t think it is, but someone better versed with winter climo can answer that. I think generally because a niña tends to promote an amplified jet it leads to these periods of more intense blocking or troughing. I think it has seasonal variations but Ralph beat me to it. Thanks.

No intent to derail the thread here. Feel free to move if not appropriate. 87storms, there are a couple of issues with this: 1) After a three year Niña, we’re almost certainly going to a Niño or at worst warm neutral ENSO for the coming hurricane season. Activity is a lot more complicated than strictly ENSO, but warm ENSO should dramatically reduce Atlantic tropical activity. 2) Even after historically active seasons in terms of absolute activity and tracks in the western Atlantic, it hasn’t done much to temper the anomalously warm SSTs in this part of the basin. You need a wholesale and persistent atmospheric change to reduce those anomalies.

We’re kind of lucking into this one so I’ll give it a pass and withhold my comment on the bolded. Hopefully we produce tomorrow and Thursday.

I like C-2” for CT. Max stripe jumps around but I think that’s the most likely outcome down here.

My post was a reflex

We haven’t won anything yet lol

I like keeping one thread, but if tomorrow produces there are going to be a lot of obs that will clog up this thread.

We obviously haven’t produced here, but I think the guidance has done well identifying significant lows at range all winter. Someone will get a legit event.

Agree. Holding steady for now on the guidance generally.

Ok, now that would be interesting.

I know I’ve been bearish to say the least about winter down here, but we toss that into the Atlantic. Much much colder down here in CT for this one IMO.

I came back for this?

NNE is golden, pike region cashed in on something respectable in late January, and the lowlands of SNE punted this winter weeks if not months ago. Not sure who’s emotionally invested and fragile enough to melt at this point All I ask is if we’re going to endure this instead of a flip to spring, that we get a high end big dog for all. Let there just be one time where @MJO812 to @dryslot and everyone in between can all enjoy a big event together. Those are the most fun times on the board.

Unfortunately, winter 22-23 is that guest that is pulling up during the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl blowout. It’s 63-6 and you’ve already put the food and drinks away, but they’re settling on the couch and asking “What did I miss”? The pattern change looks real and likely to have an impact down here, and while I am almost certain it’ll have no impact on the subjective grade of this all time horrific season, we’re going to have wintry chances, maybe even a “big” one through at least the first 2/3 of March. Spring will get here in April—or we’ll just flip to summer. Until then we’ll continue to watch the 4th quarter to see if any offense can be generated to make the score halfway respectable.

Wasn’t paying any attention but now I’m casually watching. Certainly thread worthy. Could be an impactful mixed precipitation event here in northern CT.

More acid rain and carcinogen accumulation than snow this winter.

I was driving through the rain last night and I’ve never seen anything like it on my car. I had to use wiper fluid 6-7 times to clean my windshield…in the rain…

I’m going to stay quiet after this but just my two cents: I’ve been pretty consistent in thinking late Feb/early March would be conducive for winter to show up (along with others), so the ensemble stuff isn’t surprising. That said, this winter is so far from ever being redeemable that I’m actually enjoying seeing sun and decent temperatures now. I’m not sure I even want snow. It’s just incredible that it’s the same thing over and over. Great look D7-10+, gradual backtracking, crap (here in CT), rinse & repeat. We’ll see if this latest look actually produces.

I was in DC, and that mega front that went through was one of the greatest winter events I’ve experienced.

Incredible