WxWatcher007

00z GEFS through D5.

Recon still moving toward the center. Nothing stands out thus far.

Recon starting to descend into Idalia..

Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023 Franklin is becoming better organized tonight. A ragged eye has emerged in conventional satellite imagery during the past few hours, and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported a closed eyewall during recent passes through the center. Aircraft data indicated the minimum pressure has continued to fall, with a 00 UTC dropsonde reporting a pressure of 964 mb. Since the plane departed, the satellite structure of Franklin has markedly improved, with very cold cloud tops wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity of 90 kt is supported by recent objective estimates from UW-CIMSS and a T5.0 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB at 00 UTC. Recent satellite images suggest the hurricane is finally turning more northward as expected, and the initial motion is north-northwestward (330/7 kt). A gradual turn to the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next couple of days as Franklin moves around the western periphery of a high pressure ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this portion of the forecast, and only minor westward adjustments were made following the latest HCCA and TVCA aids. Thereafter, track uncertainty increases regarding Franklin's interaction with a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. east coast by midweek. The GFS and ECMWF lie on opposite sides of the guidance envelope, with an 850 n-mi spread at 96 h. Given the greater than normal uncertainty, the NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids at days 3-5, showing a gradually faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion during this period. Based on recent satellite trends, it appears that the shear has weakened and the inner core of Franklin has become more solidified. Thus, the hurricane could be primed to strengthen in the near term within a low shear environment over very warm SSTs. The NHC forecast brings Franklin to major hurricane intensity in 12 h with more strengthening thereafter, in best agreement with some of the regional hurricane models and slightly above the HCCA/IVCN aids. As the hurricane recurves, increased deep-layer shear and cooler waters should induce some weakening, although the wind field will expand while the hurricane moves further into the mid-latitudes. This forecast shows Franklin becoming extratropical at day 5, although the timing could be refined based on future track forecasts. Although the core of Franklin is forecast to pass west and north of Bermuda during the next few days, its expanding wind field will likely require a tropical storm watch for the island on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 26.4N 70.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 27.3N 71.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 28.9N 71.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 30.4N 70.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 32.2N 69.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 33.8N 67.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 35.2N 64.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 37.5N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 42.0N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart

I think the dice have been cast at this point, and it’s not looking good for Florida. It’s very possible that this latest attempt at an inner core falls short, but even if it does the system is undoubtedly more organized. That will make it more resilient to any shear/dry air until upper level diffluence gets involved…which should get it to a new level. This is a short range forecast at this point. Probably inside 60 hours to landfall. If I had to guess right now, we end up somewhere between 105-115kts, but this is a volatile one. I’d also watch for a system with lower central pressure but broader wind field. That’d actually be the worst case for FL.

Outperforming already high expectations..

Recon is now in the air and headed toward Idalia.

Just a really cool loop to watch

Something about this description to someone called SnowLover just cracks me up.

That buoy is displaying a legit pressure fall. Looking at that, IR, and most importantly radar, it looks like Idalia is trying to take this latest mesovortex and turn it into the beginnings of an inner core. The longer the convective towers can fire absent disruptive shear and dry air intrusion, the more likely it’ll be able to go from mesovortex in a broader circulation to nascent inner core. Seeing convection try to rotate upshear on radar is a meaningful piece of data.

I think there’s still a fairly sizable split on it, but odds seem to be increasing that it’ll be moving pretty quickly.

Looks like a localized heavy rain event across guidance now. Haven't been paying much attention.

This x100. Until we can get persistent convection over the center and convection rotating upshear it'll be hard to build a core. Guidance does have that happen eventually but it may take some time. It'll be interesting to see what recon finds tonight.

It looks fine to me. This is the only active flight.

I’d take this to mean that we did get valuable storm structure data for 12z, but much more will be coming in subsequent model suites with high altitude and low level recon continuing through the day and evening.

High altitude sampling flight underway. We'll see if it has any meaningful impact on the track and intensity guidance.

There were some openly wondering whether we'd get through August with no named storms In all seriousness though, hindsight is 20/20, and September still needs to produce because I do think things ramp down quickly after September 20.

Thanks for cleaning up my sloppy geography It looks a lot faster by my eye.

FWIW, Euro is stronger and maybe a touch east? Definitely stronger as the low heads toward the FL/GA coast. 989mb at Savannah at 78.

Just in time to suppress any tropical lol

Gotta love the ole American I haven’t followed it much but I figured with some of the discussion a few weeks ago that warmth was on the table in early September. It’s been an exceptional period of heat to our south and west, and while I don’t expect 100 in September I do think we get pretty warm relative to normal for at least a bit.

Not boring? That’s a 101 at HFD

I’d probably wait until the 00z suite because the models will have data on not just right now but how Idalia evolved over the course of the day.

It’s no surprise that the vortex is tilted, and that’ll limit the risk of rapid intensification in the near term. That said I’d watch the development of shallow convection near the center. Sometimes that can be a precursor for greater convective activity that can organize the center. I’m guessing we see it in spurts however given the apparent northerly shear that’s currently tilting Idalia.