bristolri_wx

In all seriousness, if the GFS ends up being out to lunch on this one, someone at NCEP/WPC needs to take a look at why and get this solved. While US East Coast cyclones might not be the focus of the CMC, Euro, UK because of their own missions and priorities, the US models should have this as one of their strengths, not weaknesses. 1/3 of the US population lives on the East Coast. It should be a priority to get the accuracy up on these scenarios. The GFS and NAM going back and forth is embarrassing inside the 5 day window.

One nice thing about that screw hole showing up now - it means it will probably end up somewhere else. I've noticed over they years that most of the RI screw holes aren't forecasted on the models, they usually show up unexpectedly on radar when some good banding is going on elsewhere.

It's not that weird - the French worked with the ECMWF on a fork of the Euro for their needs. Based on similar code.

He also jackpots on the CMC Kuchera clown map... 29" lol...

I don't think we're in the RPM range yet... lol...

It's been posted a few times that GFS is having a tough couple of weeks vs the Euro even on mundane 500mb verification in the northern hemisphere domain. GFS has been consistent - we've also seen it cave to the consensus many times on the coastals at the last minute.

This Kuchera Ratio map on Pivotal is kind of neat... not sure how accurate it is...

The last 3 runs are exactly why people say "but it's the NAM". It's doing everything it normally does with coastal snow storms lol. It's improved aloft, and totally reversed what it did at 18z. Since we're depending on the 60-84 without the 3k to aid us, I'd call it a win.

Looks like the NAM is back on it's meds. Needs to get that prescription on auto-fill so it doesn't have anymore 18z episodes...

People who live in Boston do leave the city and travel west... rarely...

Interesting that the majority of western solutions are stronger than the eastern solutions by a few mb...

They do not: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd ...but their 4 PM extended forecast discussion and 3:30 PM snow discussions did not mention anything regarding the 18z models, or how awful the NAM is. Mostly referenced 00z/06z/12z trends today. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Yeah tick east. 24" on Cape Cod, while Worcester gets an inch. LOL... models...

Thanks for locking in a KU for us by staying in LA

I would confidently toss this NAM considering how different it is from all other models. Of course if the other 18z's come in similar trends then we worry. This concludes my John Madden-like weather model commentary.

Keep the faith... modeling hasn't been good this season for us, for both hits and misses, even at this range. GFS hasn't been good last couple of weeks according to multiple sources. I feel like the trends tomorrow will be the important ones as better data comes in. Right now its kind of the Euro against the other globals but who knows it might be on to something. It was worrisome that some perfect scenarios showed up on the models YESTERDAY, which is a little far out to my liking. Prefer those outcomes a little closer in knowing how models adjust closer to storm formation and arrival.

Out of curiosity, I went over to weather.us and looked at some of the other models available there. The French, Chinese, Korean are on the eastern side of the guidance as well. We know what the skill levels are there, but it does make you wonder what's making some of the models go east of the Euro/CMC...

The calm before the 0z GFS...

This was a torchy run of the GFS... lol...

He's also not a fan of the metric system. Definitely going to follow him on Twitter now.

It's the best I could do in 60 seconds in Photoshop lol. I had to eyeball it based on two different maps. LOL

Brutal screw zone....

Seems like we're getting all the signals we want to see 5 days out for a region wide storm. Let's narrow the goal posts. Realistically the 5 day forecast would be 6-12" for most unless something drastically changes like a mixing component or a weird dry slot, and then there will be some banding/jackpots that are more in the 12-18" range. Will be fun to follow the rest of the week. I'll take the 6" IMBY.

I posted some graphics from Pivotal earlier - 0" to 12" over 2/3 of a mile on the GFS soundings...