bristolri_wx

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Rhode Island is the rain capital of New England. Even with that dry stretch I can imagine their totals for the year are way above anywhere else.

Totally depends on the pattern. A couple of years ago RI had the worst of the drought compared to others. But yes Stein has totally vacated the premises here…

When the south wind howls
My face turns to scowl
I look for the snow
And yell “where did you go”
A normal winter day
Living near Narragansett Bay

Inland areas, enjoy. Looks like there could be some positive surprises… 

8 minutes ago, FXWX said:

All I know is, the last several winters have almost always seen extended period moderating periods verifying even warmer than originally modeled, while modeled cold periods ended up shorter than first expected?   This repeating winter theme is getting old.  I know right now the Pacific looks different than the last couple of Decembers, but the same scenario is in play?  Hopefully trends move in a more favorable direction for the midmonth period, but who knows!

I feel like at least part of this is the normal modulation of the seasonal weather pattern. It was quite warm and above normal in most of November, so you would expect that even a below normal setup we have now will moderate back to above for a period as we continue to gradually step down into climo. As long as nothing outrageous is going on to the north of us we should be okay as we get deeper into December.

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Merry Christmas 

I call the CFS and raise you a GEFS.

If people want to see snow, turn on NBC.  A couple of feet at Orchard Park.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t say woof when something looks good like some child. I’ll use some mature comment like pants tent or something like that. 

Next time say the pattern is “ruff”. Which is also the way Trebek’s mother like it.

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Years and years of no snow . You used to do when it did snow which truly made many leave the board over those years. When the pattern looks snowy and if and when it  actually is snowing again.. the positive Kevin will be back . 

I’m not really caring about clown maps but I am caring about this:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=T850a&runtime=2024112806&fh=6

Look at Canada. That’s 384 hours of ensemble showing mostly below normal or normal temp anomalies at 850. Yes the Pacific drives the bus, but Canada provides the passengers. The last two winters there has not been a consistent normal to below normal cold source region in Canada to help us with the precip down here. I can count on least 5 or 6 storms discussed here where we saw favorable setups near the bench mark and ended up with slop and rain instead of snow due to thermals. We would see weeks of +10 anomolies NW of us. It only takes one or two degrees of thermal difference to go from boom to bust for snow accumulations in New England. Getting Canada colder means more chances for us.

While this could all end up dry and boring, it is very encouraging. More so than the last couple of seasons and in December, which have been ratters in recent memory for most in SNE. I would expect you would be able to see these differences as well.

Happy Thanksgiving and let’s all be thankful for some potential to cash in after the last couple of seasons of mostly boredom.

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Whatever happened to Kevin?  This imposter is such a Debbie Downer in every respect.  Insufferable.

All the high dewpoints he roots for all summer has caused black brain mold. He’s just not himself. He’s been Torch-ed!

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I genuinely enjoy winter, but I cannot express how awful it is when we’re failing around here or waiting for things to change. I mean this with all sincerity—it’s by far the dumbest time of the year in wx discussion. 

It’s low level torture reading these boards and idk how or why I subject myself to it daily. It’s not necessarily that anyone is stirring the pot, it’s that there are irreconcilable differences, unfounded panic, and delusional optimism. Everywhere. All the time. 

This isn’t a a criticism by any means, though it come off as one in written form, but just an observation:

It seems like a lot of the discussion posts had stricter moderation in the past, and a lot of what stays now used to be moved into the banter forums. It also doesn’t help that we have had a number of shitty winters since the jackpot of 2014-2015. It’s hard to get good moderators these days that have the time to keep the threads organized.

There’s a lot of good content here. Just ignore or block the trolling. Don’t think I could give up this place either. 

Just nice to be tracking colder patterns and possible storms this early in the season, a big contrast to the last two. It’s always better when Canada isn’t torching.

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Great read as always.

On 11/6/2024 at 8:06 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like I have learned a lot from the past couple of poor results. I will save you the trouble...won't be out prior to Monday.

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It can and does and used to snow almost every November . A warm, snowless November typically leads to a mild and not snowy winter. Those hoping it stays dry and warm and sunny will be the same ones watching and believing the models as the” great pattern” is pushed back every 2 weeks. You’d think you’d have learned .

How far back are you going on these November’s that feature snow? The climate record says otherwise:

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t think October snow has ever lasted, even on MWN.

Make sense, since neither does cold November rain…

Thought of at @Damage In Tolland while reading this in the BOX discussion… 

Our forestry partners at CT DEEP have requested a special
weather statement for elevated fire weather concerns in Hartford
and Tolland Counties. We plan on reaching out to our forestry
and fire weather partners in RI and MA for their input and a
possible special weather statement for those states as well.

Ha, Bastardi forecasted below normal snowfall in the Northeast! When’s the last time that happened?

Could be best the omen yet that maybe this winter won’t suck as much as last winter. Sure a broken clock gets it right twice a day but it’s still wrong the other 23:58!! 

6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

71F is +5 for BOS,  "only" 

Yeah I was in Boston today on Newbury St. Felt warmer than that. It was beautiful.

What a nice Coctober day it was!

My lawn is brown in spots but only because I had not cut most of it since July 2!  It was taller than the dog in a few spots lol…

Been reading up, and it seems like following outcome for this winter based on the data so far - in general terms:

- Likely overall to be above normal temps, below normal snow.

- Greater chances of a bigger storm or two to setup due to pattern, thank last year.

- Greater chances of more arctic cold outbreaks than last year.

So a good chance it will be better than last year, but need some luck for it to be much better. 

7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Enjoy Steintember.

Yeah no longer heading up the coast on the GFS and Euro.  Heading NW and merging into a low near Iowa instead lol.  Still a long way to go...

This storm/pattern would have been perfect in mid January. I’m sure we will have a Bermuda high then!

We are in a rain delay here in Burrilville with our Labor Day festivities… torrential…

Got hit pretty good in Bristol.  Flash flood warning now as the heavy stuff was overhead for a while.  Some small hail in places.

Round 3 has arrived.

45 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Hailing in Bristol, that doesn't happen often.  Cell developed right over the area.

In the northeast part of town there were two rounds of hail and some wind gusts that may have been down bursts.  Parents have some tree damage at their house and in their neighborhood.  That cell drifted ESE into Swansea/Somerset/Fall River area.