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bristolri_wx

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Posts posted by bristolri_wx

  1. 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

    Basically on the forum there’s NNE that hasn’t had a stellar winter, but many are halfway to average with two months to go…and sitting with 12-18” on the ground currently.

    On the flip side there are a good deal of posters where winter has been more of an abstract concept than a real entity this season.

    And it’s stark, the gradient has been very real and very sharp. It’s leading to two very different frames of mind when analyzing data, statements, or sentiment. 

    I'm surprised at the number of people giving up and selling (ie "not invested").  Canada continues to look cold the next 5-6 weeks.  Threading the needle has moved from a sewing needle to a knitting needle.  Sure, it's gonna be AN at times with the SE ridge, but, at the same time, there could easily be a couple of moderate to strong storms that develop between the cold air to our north, the ridge to the south, and the +3 to +5C SST's in the Atlantic near us.  That ridge isn't going to be maxing at all times throughout Feb, and the despite the some of the maps shown recently, the ensembles show the southeast and the mid-atlantic warming the most, not us.

    Given our luck, it could all go to shit, but, if you want to see a little more snow this season south of the pike, there's definitely some hope.  Can't call the rat just yet...

    Screenshot 2023-01-29 at 9.03.19 PM.png

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  2. 3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

    Temperatures are easier to model at longer lead times than snowfall.

    Sorry, meant 0" of snow (as in the Euro map recently posted at 240 hrs).  Maps of the GFS showing 20-30" of snow were weenied immensely last week, if I'm not mistaken.  Both are probably wrong, that was more of my point...

  3. So we jump on 10 day forecasts when they forecast 0, and dismiss the ones that had 30” of snow?

    LOL… let’s call it a rat when it’s done. I remain optimistic even with a SE ridge. There will be snow in Feb and March for all of New England, including S and SE areas.

    • Like 2
  4. 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    I'm just not holding my breath any longer....that's all. I have a baby coming next week and am starting to look forward to fantasy baseball. I still think the season holds potential, but my I am no longer invested.

    Congrats on the baby.  Nice to see someone else on the board interested in Fantasy Baseball as well, which is the real fantasy sport IMO.

    The snow will come when we're least expecting it or paying attention.  That's how it works.  I think Feb and March will be better than Dec and Jan, not because we're due, but because there is a pattern change going on that could work in our favor much more so than what we've been seeing the last two months...

  5. 17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

    We’re actually driving to Florida just past mid February.  Stopping in Pittsburgh to visit a dear friend and then heading south with some fun stops on the way.  Checking out spring training and visiting my wife’s mom who’s wintering there.   We’ll return whenever….

    Hopefully we get something in the next few weeks but I’m not holding my breath.

    Queue the Blizzard of 2023 on Feb 17th, or whenever your trip begins. LOL! :lol:

  6. I’m still optimistic we get some snow between now and April 1. All the lovely maps that show the west cold show cold in Canada as well. That’s a definite pattern shift. We fight the SE ridge in mid Feb but it seems to cool down afterwards heading into March. We shall see. 

  7. 2 hours ago, George001 said:

     

     

    Yeah, to save this winter in SNE we need something to force all that cold in Siberia over here. It’s possible but based on past winters similar to this it’s a long shot. That damn western ridge is just too far west so everything wants to run inland.

    We don’t need anything from Siberia, they can keep their cold. All we really need is for Canada to stop averaging +10-20 anomalies for weeks at a time. The air masses in place every time we get an event have literally been hot garbage. There’s nothing to tap into to generate snow…

    Siberia and Canada can be cold at the same time, it doesn’t have to be an either/or scenario.

    • Like 3
  8. I'm still optimistic about the next 6 weeks.  One thing that continues to be shown is that Canada is finally going to cool off.  Yes, the little below normal stretch in late Jen/early Feb is not sustained in the US, but it does seem to be in most of Canada, based on the CFS weeklies and the 35 day GEFS, and even when eastern Canada warms a little, its not torched like it has been.  While it might not be good for sustained snow pack, we're going to have our chances with storms, especially as the SE ridge modulates - when it fades a little we might get our chances at some coastals with some cold air to feed them, even if its a positive anomaly overall for the month.  I may still be S-O-L in the coastal plain for most of the upcoming chances, but, overall for New England it's a much better pattern for potential snow.  I do like the colder trend at the end of the month as well.  Just my two cents...  We'll see how I feel about this prognostication on March 1!

    • Like 1
  9. 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

     

    Perhaps my sarcasm was too understated for the recent weather pattern.

    The overall vibe here lately is we will never see snow again. Thought I could spice things up here… considering the dire conversation.

    That being said it was probably posted in the wrong thread…

    • Haha 1
  10. 6 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

    I'm not familiar with the initials CFS?  It's the same ting as the GEFS?

    Wow I thought I had deleted that post quickly! I mistakenly thought you posted a CFS v2 output map, which usually tends to run warm. (As others mentioned, “Climate Forecast System)

    The extended 00z GEFS is relatively new since the upgrade to the GFS last year…

  11. 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    I actually don’t have a problem with the MJO contributing some … 

    The hemisphere appears receptive to it actually moving east of the Niña firewall. Dispersion (wave propagation) is constructively interfering.  It’s just not an aspect that is on the charts at this time -

    It won’t drive the pattern … it may contribute. NCEP has 70+% prob for NIÑA neutralization over the next 40 days. It could in total send the pattern roulette turning for a new number. 

    No idea what their reasoning is but these questions are worth asking. 

     

    cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_fh1-9.gif

  12. I have an electric one and rarely use it.  Since I've purchased it 5 years ago I think I've used it 6 times.  Usually it's not enough to bother (I have a small 2 car driveway), or, too wet to use it efficiently.  At the same time, no way I'm spending money on a fancy two stage for the two or three sloppy storms per year I might get some use out of it.  It's worked fine on the big storms we have had where the snow was 8:1 or higher.  I voted no because if there's anywhere that's probably gonna get screwed this year, it's the coastal plain down here near Narragansett Bay, with warm SST's and warm tounge's at 900mb on the NAM. :P

  13. It's hard to give up on an entire winter in early Jan.  I still feel confident that the pattern breaks to something more favorable for winter enthusiasts in late January into February.  As many have said, Canada is warm too right now so every storm is a threading the needle situation until that reverses.  The ensembles and long term climate models are still pointing to a change in that scenario.  Once Canada cools off it's easier to get SWFE events and other storms that develop when the upper air pattern is more favorable.

    That being said, we may still end up with a below normal winter for snow because of all the missed time, so if that's your definition of a ratter, then it's a high probability it will occur.  But overall patience is the key the next couple of weeks...

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