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Posts posted by bristolri_wx

  1. We don’t need El Niño or La Niña, we just need Canada to have relatively normal cold air again. As long as Canada continues to be a furnace our Winter snow chances will continue to be reduced. Our general patterns were favorable several times for snowfall, only for there to be marginal temps making accumulation difficult or impossible. Sometimes you don’t realize how a +10 or +20 500 miles away makes 29 degrees turn into 33 degrees in New England.

  2. 38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

    Yes, this is a great point.  I think that many envision mild sunny days in the 60’s, and dry stretches when they think of Morch being above normal, and winter being over Lol…that’s almost always never the case.  Sure it’ll be above normal, but more likely just as you explained.  Which really sucks.   

    Yes exactly.  Some may be envisioning shorts and sandals and while that could happen, I feel like disappointment will continue, but just in the other direction.

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  3. 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

    Exactly. This is why I get so bent out of shape with the snow maps. They're just leading to lazy forecasting. Ultimately, forecasting is a science which requires a great deal of time and effort. Now, I get in today's day and age where everyone is so busy and has so many responsibilities that it's difficult to put that effort in, but we're only hurting ourselves that way. 

    Fundamentals are important. Take sports for example, you can have the most talent team, best players, but if you can't execute the fundamentals, you aren't winning in the end. 

    When forecasting, the fundamentals should be applied first and always. If one is going to look at snow maps or QPF and see there is a cut-down, the questions needs to be asked as to why that is and whether it makes sense. When looking back at how all guidance was handling the mid-levels, the evolution of the mid-levels, jet enhancement, the QPF cuts should not have made sense. 

    I guess though hindsight is 20-20...its always easier said than done in the end, but you can't ignore the fundamentals and forget why fundamentals are important. 

    I agree with everything you said 100%, and I don't have met training so I'm not even in much position to take an alternative angle.  That being said, I think even the folks at NCEP and other agencies were probably wondering what was going on with models yesterday afternoon, and by 6PM they had hurricane hunters out doing data readings.  It didn't shock me that @Ginx snewx started posting HRRR runs that were "improving" a few hours later.  Perhaps those flights would have been done anyway for research purposes but there was definitely a period yesterday where something made the models start show something different after several days of consistency.

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  4. Made the Bristol to Providence track into work between 8:30 to 9:15.  Moderate to heavy snow the entire way.  It's sticking pretty good to grassy areas, but roads are just slushy.  It's been hovering 32 the entire time.  Eyeballing about 4" outside my office.  Don't have a yard stick here.  It super heavy slop, but looks delightful outside.

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  5. 25 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

    0.5” ON THE GROUND OUTSIDE OF GRASS OR PLASTIC!!  0.5”!?  And You people have 6”-10”??  

    F*** THIS STORM!  In the past 9 days I’ve had to deal with the Chiefs Winning, Mahomes winning a Historic Game WITH an OT coup to boot, Narcissistic Swift & Asshat Kelce taking over the God Dang World seeing unprecedented records and power, my industry has gone So Woke at the Grammys you can’t recognize it, Brandon doesn’t know he’s flipping Alive as President, and now ANOTHER Failed storm like the last 7 “big ones” in a Row here the past 2 years??  

    Here you go man:


    Screenshot 2024-02-13 at 10.31.10 AM.png

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  6. 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

    My guess it's just moreso the initialization of the features and how they're evolving in real time. Just going through quickly but between some guidance and today, the differences between the evolution of the northern/southern streams don't seem too significant but certainly enough to result in larger differences at the surface. 

    I'm also getting the distinct impression that this preceding airmass being hot garbage provides wide swings when you start looking at snowfall maps with little change in the upper levels.  If we had a colder airmass in place, ratios wouldn't be as much of an issue considering the overall placement of the low pressure.  It going a little farther south, as mentioned in the discussions, causes the better lift and the mechanics to cool off the atmosphere more quickly and comprehensively go along with it, and no one is sure if back side cold air can balance that out.  A week ago we weren't even sure a snowstorm for a large part of the area could materialize considering the confidence in it being +10 to +20 for several days before hand and no cold front coming before it to inject cold air into the region.

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  7. Out of personal curiosity, I would love to know what data that got ingested in the last 12-18 hours that caused this much of a hiccup.  I see the reasons for the change, but man, what a huge swing right before go time.  And before you say the Ukie was on this the entire time, the reason why the Ukie didn't like this storm on earlier runs does not seem to match the trends on the other models in the last 12 hours.  I guess the models were threading the needle the last few days with a perfect setup of chaos that didn't actually occur?

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  8. BOX AFD:


    Well, I`ll get right to the point with this update, there`s been a
    big change to the forecast this afternoon based on a remarkably late
    but notable trend in the 12z/18z guidance which now keeps the bulk
    of the snow centered over the south coast of southern New England.
    This change is due not only to a southern shift in the track of the
    low but also a notable shift in the 500 mb trough; with a slower and
    less amplified solution and the northern and southern stream energy
    failing to phase/strengthen as they pass through the region. This
    shift has notably moved the zone of mid level frontogenesis to the
    south, and since we typically see the best forcing/banding to the
    northwest of the maxima this places southeast MA/Cape Cod and
    southern RI in the bullseye. BUFKIT soundings do indicate decent
    omega (forcing for lift) within the dendritic snow growth zone
    further north into MA, so we should still see some decent snowfall
    there, but the maxima looks to be south and east. While this is
    remarkably late in the game for such a relatively big shift, nearly
    all of the 12Z guidance including the 12Z ECMWF, 18Z NAM, 18Z HRRR
    and more show it. The new forecast calls for a swath of 6 to 10
    inches across southeast MA/RI with a pretty tight gradient to the
    north down to potentially nothing in far northwest MA. Uncertainty
    remains high, however, given marginal temperatures at onset (though
    good dynamics should help cool the column to overcome this) and
    potential for a shift back north with overnight guidance. This
    southern shift brings slightly cooler air which may help mitigate
    snow loading risk a bit, but a wet, and rather heavy snow continues
    to be expected. Blizzard conditions are possible, especially on the
    outer Cape where the strongest winds are expected, with gusts has
    high as 55 mph possible. Elsewhere winds will be gusty, blowing 30-
    40 mph over southeast MA and along the immediate coasts of MA and
    RI. The Winter Storm Warning has been expanded into Cape Cod and the
    islands while it has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory
    for western and north central MA.


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  9. 17 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

    That dark grey goes up into the bay for sure. There's no way that the southern part of aquidneck Island is At 5 inches plus. I think the official number for Newport is at 6.6 on the season, but Newport proper has definitely not seen close to that. That's oddly the number at the airport, which is in Middletown, and every half mile you go north makes a difference, incredibly. My very unofficial total is half that. It's definitely nit picky but if my winter is going to shit the bed, I at least want it to make a stain.

    The dark gray doesn't go that far up Narragansett Bay.  I'm at around 10" here for the season in Bristol.

  10. 26 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

    I think most check the dates, but just in general. It’s cool that you post maps, and I appreciate it, but it seems you will include other events in those maps which skews the totals, obviously. I know I’ve seen other members here, with much more tenure than me, ask you to be a bit more accurate with the maps when you post them. Sorry, hope this isn’t coming across as rude. You seem like a good guy.

    In the spirit of this discussion, here's a long range total snowfall map. :D:weenie:


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