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Posts posted by bristolri_wx

  1. Not gonna lie I’m welcoming this weather for the backlog of yard work I have. This out of shape middle aged man doesn’t mind the 50’s on a June weekend where I need to be outside for an extended period of time. Have been right on the edge of these spotty showers and patches of drizzle since yesterday. Wouldn’t be fun weather for any sort of outing though, took a drive through Colt State Park and it felt like March!

    • Like 2
  2. 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

    Agreed.  Although for my work anything above 75 isn’t ideal. 

    I mean sunny, 75, with 50’s dews would be ideal. Down here we were close enough. :)

    • Like 1
  3. Great weather for first little league practice of the season this evening. It was like watching a live version of the Bad News Bears but all the kids had fun.

    Looks like the local little league org doesn’t provide as much equipment these days as when I played 35 years ago. Is that the case all over?

  4. 3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

    This weather sucks

    Bring on winter 

    Oh come on man. I love winter as much as the next person but 80’s with 50 degree dews is just about perfect weather.

    It’s those f-ing upper 60’s and 70’s dews that make summer (and sometimes spring) miserable at times. This is nice considering the shit winter we had on the coastal plain. I’ll take it.

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  5. 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    I don't know ...it seems they all spent time on and off with that thing next week. 

    The Euro may suck donkey ballz now but this isn't the test case to point that out.  They're all pieces of shit at this time of year anyway...

    We are in a longitudinal pattern and no model typically does well in that regime, ...now adding that to spring vagaries on top ...?

    There's no 'looking forward' to the next run of any guidance if one is being rational about limitations ...

    Big warm up in April possible, btw

    I think the fast flow pattern that we have had setup the last few winters at our latitude really messes with the models for our area when it comes to cyclogenesis. It’s not like any one model sticks out as being better than the other last few seasons they have all had their hits and misses, but what’s been lacking is accurate modeling of mid-level and surface low tracks, and the ability to provide more fine tuned snowfall in the short range; and when I say accurate, we are talking about the usual threading the needle required to figure out where snow will fall in our varied geography in New England.

    Hopefully the pattern is different next winter and we have both a better outcome winter with forecasts and the actual weather that accompanies them.

  6. 10 hours ago, George001 said:

    The Pope did a great job with his forecasts this winter, I have to give credit where it’s due. Analogs and the long range models are good tools but the Pope correctly assessed that the presence of geese in November was a red flag. Animals have no sense of the calendar, the way they tell the seasons are changing is based off the present weather, the landscape, etc. Being able to accurately prepare for the change of seasons is literally a matter of life and death for animals, as they are forced to endure a level of exposure to the elements that we have the luxury of avoiding. They are far more in tune with the elements than we are, so I do think seasonal forecasters would benefit from incorporating analysis of animal behavior into their forecasts. Yeah it’s a strange method yeah, but if it works it works. I thought it was dumb at first too,  but throughout the winter it became more and more clear that I was being too closed minded. Instead of just discounting something because it seems dumb, strange, or is telling us something we don’t want to hear, it’s good to keep an open mind. 

    2023-2024 winter forecast research already underway.



    • Haha 5
  7. 5 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

    The HRRR still makes the finale for this storm interesting for the coastal plain.  Pinwheeling the phasing lows south through Mass. Bay and the Cape.  Just to the west of that things will be quite "violent" for a few hours...  We are in the HRRR wheelhouse now inside of 12 hrs so lets see how well it forecasts this...

    And 5 hours makes a big difference.  HRRR now has the low about 100 miles east of where it was previously modeled when I posted over the next few hours, out east of Chatham rather than crossing the canal.  Probably means less snow for my location, maybe an inch if we're lucky...

  8. You can see why the bust potential in both directions exists.  It's warmth vs rates.  Probably anywhere in the coastal plain that's close to freezing and gets under a heavy band risks switching over to very heavy wet snow as it brings the cold down to the surface.  And at the same time, the warmth could win out and that's just all heavy rain.  Challenging forecast!

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