Winter Wizard

67 degrees on 11/11/95

If you're curious, the highest temperature DCA ever recorded the day before accumulating snow prior to today was 74 degrees on 4/7/72. If DCA recorded more than a trace, it would obliterate the record.

It's a bit of a misconception that the PNA corresponds to a western US ridge/trough, the index actually corresponds to a much broader area per the CPC: PNA = Z*(15°N-25°N,180-140°W)-Z*(40°N-50°N,180-140°W) +Z*(45°N-60°N,125°W-105°W)-Z*(25°N-35°N,90°W-70°W) So in the case of December, the -PNA was mostly the result of strong troughing over western Canada, which in turn torched the Southwest US. Good reminder that the number isn't the be all, end all, you have to look at the bigger picture.

All time worst bust for the Mid-Atlantic, imagine expecting 2-3 feet of snow from an all timer blizzard and instead getting at most a couple inches of slop. I was too young to remember this but I believe it was a case of a delayed transfer which shifted the heaviest snows way north into New England. I believe that trend was choreographed on some of the models, which makes me think that something of that magnitude *probably* won't happen again.

I am not sure when or why they decided to change the methodology but it really skews the rankings. I was surprised the 1/5-6/25 storm did not make the rankings considering it was a more impactful and wide reaching storm in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic than both early 2022 storms which snuck in as a Category-1. Or if those December 2022 storms could make it, why not 1/7/24 which brought a swath of 12"+ to the interior Northeast? Or 3/13/23? Anyway, the late January storm absolutely should make the rankings considering all of DC-BOS received over 6" of snow, and of course impacts spread well beyond that. My guess for that would be upper Category-3 or low end Category-4. For this blizzard, my guess is Category-3 in Boxing Day range.

I said this in the MA forum but figured I’d send it here too… I believe there is potential for 12"+ for coastal regions from Delaware to Mass, but I am honestly decently concerned about a potential rug pull I-95 N and W with this one. A storm as intense as this is likely to have a more consolidated precipitation shield which slams the coast, but can make it difficult for those bands to pivot farther inland. There is legitimate risk the phase does not occur until north of our latitude unless we see more digging upstream. The inverted trough is a wild card that could make up for it in spots though. Not to mention, surface temperatures are marginal with this one, and we could see a period of white rain cut down on totals. Hoping for the best, but I see clear warning signs and parallels to storms like January 2015, January 2018, January 2022, Boxing Day, etc.

That IVT has a January 2011 or February 2014 flavor.

I believe there is potential for 12"+ for coastal regions from Delaware to Mass, but I am honestly decently concerned about a potential rug pull I-95 N and W with this one. A storm as intense as this is likely to have a more consolidated precipitation shield which slams the coast, but can make it difficult for those bands to pivot farther inland. There is legitimate risk the phase does not occur until north of our latitude unless we see more digging upstream. The inverted trough is a wild card that could make up for it in spots though. Not to mention, surface temperatures are marginal with this one, and we could see a period of white rain cut down on totals. Hoping for the best, but I see clear warning signs and parallels to storms like January 2015, January 2022, December 2000, etc.

Lol I lurk more than people think. Don't usually feel inclined to post though.

I've been reading weather forums for half of my life and that was the most unhinged thing I have ever seen. Yikes.

Ceiling on this is very high, there will be a large swath of 12"+ totals across the Northeast. For the City and coast itself however, there is a twofold concern related to the transfer from primary low to secondary: mid-level warming and arguably more consequentially the dry slotting. I would not be 100% on major totals at this point, but potential is there. First bonafide MECS in 5 years.

If the 850 low is going to Buffalo like the Euro is showing, mixing would absolutely be on the table for parts of SNE, much less NYC southward.

Its own AI is north. Just seems like typical GFS shenanigans at play.

Garbage model, totally out to lunch. Toss.

I would consider the Euro to be the upper limit of this...IF everything aligns there potential would be there for most of the sub to see a foot+, just not sure where. My main concern would actually be dry slotting and a potential messy handoff between the initial low and the coastal.