Winter Wizard

Lol I lurk more than people think. Don't usually feel inclined to post though.

I've been reading weather forums for half of my life and that was the most unhinged thing I have ever seen. Yikes.

Ceiling on this is very high, there will be a large swath of 12"+ totals across the Northeast. For the City and coast itself however, there is a twofold concern related to the transfer from primary low to secondary: mid-level warming and arguably more consequentially the dry slotting. I would not be 100% on major totals at this point, but potential is there. First bonafide MECS in 5 years.

If the 850 low is going to Buffalo like the Euro is showing, mixing would absolutely be on the table for parts of SNE, much less NYC southward.

Its own AI is north. Just seems like typical GFS shenanigans at play.

Garbage model, totally out to lunch. Toss.

I would consider the Euro to be the upper limit of this...IF everything aligns there potential would be there for most of the sub to see a foot+, just not sure where. My main concern would actually be dry slotting and a potential messy handoff between the initial low and the coastal.

Is there a major storm where the GFS WASN'T overly suppressed? I would be more concerned if it wasn't.

I would primarily focus on QPF for now, the Kuchera algorithm can be wonky. Having said that, I would expect favorable snow growth that would yield >10:1 ratios particularly in the second half of the storm.

Definitely good to see a more meridional height field.

TPV looks east and the northern piece looks stronger. Both good for increasing the ceiling and northward extent of the precip.

The Euro is a different evolution than we’ve seen: essentially a multipronged event with initial overrunning, a lull, and then transfer into a coastal where it bombs. Not far off from a February 2014 setup as a first thought. If the second piece comes in, that ups the ante and I really think HECS potential could be on the table. Fitting it’s basically on the 10 year anniversary of the last one.

100% agreed. Although, the big ones always lock in early

The AIFS obviously shouldn't be taken verbatim but I don't think it's far fetched to believe this isn't a one and done pattern. We'll be in a -NAO/-EPO/+PNA regime and that should keep cold air in place for the foreseeable future with a mean storm track targeting the East. I don't bite easily, but this has my attention.

I have not seen potential like this a long time in the Mid-Atlantic. Gives 2010 vibes. Just need to bring it home and hope it doesn't get squashed south.