hudsonvalley21

wow, that's what I like to call a "slim shady" move... that's pretty low!

Hope it works out for your wife.

Up to 22.0 here

I have a feeling that Tuesday may be one if those days when we get to 32 but never go above it.

Me too. If the NAM comes thru with the QPF. It's going to be a mess. Keep the flashlights charged, might need them tomorrow night. Currently 20.7/1

4pm obs.

HUDSON VALLEY

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

NEWBURGH MOCLDY 19 3 49 E8 30.31S WCI 9

MONTGOMERY MOCLDY 20 2 45 N3 30.29F

POUGHKEEPSIE CLEAR 22 -7 27 CALM 30.33R

ALBANY MOCLDY 13 -6 42 CALM 30.35R

This will allow for some evap.cooling later on.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM

TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...

SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY

* HAZARDS...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET INTO TUESDAY

MORNING...THEN A QUARTER TO UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF ICE ON TOP

OF THE SNOW AND SLEET FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL

BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS THE

FREEZING MARK TUESDAY. ANY AREAS THAT GO ABOVE FREEZING

TUESDAY...WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT...THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN

BY AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS COULD CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A PERIOD

OF TIME IN THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO FREEZING RAIN

TUESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE TUESDAY

NIGHT.

12z NAM came in wetter than the previous 00z run for KSWF. The 00z had 0.87 the 12z has 1.42. Could have some serious ice issues if the NAM is right.

OKX disc.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

937 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STORM SYSTEM TO

IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL NOW

AGREE THAT THE DAMMING HIGH WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER

FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS DAMMING HIGH WILL SERVE TO HELP

KEEP COLD AIR TRAPPED IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY FROM

INTERIOR SW CT...WEST TO ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC

COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH

THE EVENT.

THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AROUND

12Z TUESDAY AND NEAR CAPE COD BY 6Z WEDNESDAY...PASSING IN BETWEEN

LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...AND DEEPENING AROUND 10

HPA AS IT DOES SO.

THE DAMMING HIGH WILL SERVE AS AN OVER RUNNING SURFACE FOR

MOISTURE RIDING N ON A S-SE 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE

SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE RESULT IS SNOW WILL DEVELOP

ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER

MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE AND HOW FAST TEMPERATURES

RISE ABOVE FREEZING...THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST...AND

DEEP THE LOW LEVELS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE NAM OFFERS THE LEAST

AMOUNT OFF...AND THE SHALLOWEST WARMING...THE GFS IS THE

WARMEST...AND HAS THE DEEPEST WARM LAYER...WHILE THE ECMWF IS

SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT WILL

DETERMINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW

MIXES/CHANGES TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN - AND TO ALL RAIN ACROSS

COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING NYC. FOR NOW OPTED FOR A BLEND OF NAM/GFS

LOW LEVEL THERMAL FEATURES.

WHAT DOES APPEAR FAIRLY CERTAIN...IS THAT THERE WILL BE AN

ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE THE MIXING BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH

AMOUNTS FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACROSS LONG ISLAND. 1-2 INCHES

ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL CT...AND 2-4 INCHES ACROSS

INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...AND

CT...WHERE JUST SNOW WILL CONTINUE LONGER...INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN FALLS AFTER

THIS...BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR ALL BUT MOST LIKELY INTERIOR

SW CT...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY DURING THE

DAY ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW GOING WITH A GLAZE TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN

INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL AND SE CT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF ICE...AND

MAYBE MORE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS...AND IF

TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING...ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE

LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SW CT...AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY. IN THESE

AREAS...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...AND THOSE

THAT DO...LIKELY WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM 1 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...DEPENDING ON CONFIDENCE IN

AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE IN A GIVEN ZONE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND ADDED A DEGREE

(TO FAVOR WARMER GUIDANCE) FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE IN

THE EVENING...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...USED NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AS THEY HAVE

HISTORICALLY FARED VERY WELL IN THESE IN-SITU DAMMING SITUATIONS.

FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER

TEMPERATURES.

&&

Damned ice dams I think I broke my nose this afternoon. I was on the ladder whacking away at the ice at the edge of the roof and a chunk, had to be 20+ pounds, broke loose. It hit me in the face because I was watching what I was doing, as any sane person would when whacking their house with a 3 pound mallet. F'n thing hurts...

Sorry to hear this. Thank god you did not fall off the lader and had more injuries or worse. I made an attempt at mine today but it's solid ice in the gutters and downspouts. This won't be going anywhere soon. Feel better.

have you beaten it yet? 6.5 here.

Not yet ,still at 9.1. Must be the river temp fighting it off.

Already 8.9* here...

Heat wave here 9.1. Forcast low is 8, think I'll beat that soon.

Coldest of the season so far ,currently at 1.8

Forcast low IMBY is 10. Down to 18.3 so far.

Finished up with 9.2" here on the east side of the county.

Popped outside, snow has ramped up nicely in the last 10 minutes to moderate.

Here too picked up nicely. Also, my temp fell down 1 full deg in 1/2 an hour. Now 23.1

Just started snowing here in eastern Orange county. 24.1/16

Started snowing here

Radar is starting to pop. Pertty cool.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0700 PM CST TUE JAN 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY AND SRN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 120100Z - 120600Z

SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EVENING INTO THE

EARLY MORNING FROM ERN PA AND NJ THROUGH SERN NY AND SRN CT. RATES

LOCALLY GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z.

THIS EVENING A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH BASE

OF TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN

EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERTAKE BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE

MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD...RESULTING IN DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OFF

THE VA COAST AS IT LIFTS NWD OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW

WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A

STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH WILL AUGMENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE MID

ATLANTIC SEABOARD NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TRENDS ALREADY

INDICATE SNOW EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM ERN PA INTO NJ. THE SNOW

WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED AS BANDS LATER THIS EVENING AND

TONIGHT. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION

WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY

ALSO POSSIBLE. A DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE

MOSTLY AOA -5C WILL EXIST BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UNSTABLE LAYER

WHICH COULD SERVE TO FURTHER AUGMENT SNOWFLAKE GROWTH THROUGH

AGGREGATION. RATES WILL LIKELY LOCALLY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR AT

TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

12z NAM run today has backed off on the QPF to 0.78 for KSWF

00z NAM came in with 1.37 of QPF for KSWF :snowman:

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KSWF.txt

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

427 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES INTO MON...SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY

EXPECTED WITH ONLY FEW-SCT STRATOCU ATOP THE INVERSION...AND

MIXING BELOW RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY OF GUSTY NW WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM ONTARIO MON NIGHT.

UNDERCUT COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS

I NORMALLY WOULD FOR SNOW COVERED AREAS...SINCE A 15-20 KT

NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MECHANICAL

TURBULENCE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE

IN LATE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER MAJOR

SNOWSTORM...THE SECOND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN JUST A LITTLE OVER

TWO WEEKS AND THE THIRD FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT! SIDED WITH A 12Z

NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE NASCENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM

THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF

OF MEXICO. SAT WV IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED

BAROCLINIC LEAF AND COMMA HEAD...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2

INCHES/HOUR ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND A

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NEAR A TROPICAL

DISTURBANCE S OF MEXICO...AND ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS

PICKED UP ON THIS. PROLIFIC LIGHTNING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF

MEXICO MAY BE INDICATIVE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF

THE SYSTEM THAN MOST MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH MAY FORCE AN EVENTUAL

FARTHER W LOW TRACK...AND THE NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON

THIS. EVEN SO...STRONG ISALLOBARIC N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY

RAPID PRESSURE FALLS AS THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW MOVES FROM NE OF

HATTERAS TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONTAUK AND 40N/70W TUE NIGHT BY 12Z

WED SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH

ONLY THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND STILL IN QUESTION. WEAKER/LESS WET

GFS SFC SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR LESS OF AN ISALLOBARIC LOW LEVEL WIND

COMPONENT AND THEREFORE MORE ONSHORE AND BLYR WARMING...WITH MIXED

PRECIP TUE NIGHT ALL THE WAY BACK TO COASTAL CT AND ALL RAIN FOR

MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER LONG ISLAND. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN

REJECTED ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS WAS ALSO TOO WARM IN COASTAL

SECTIONS FOR THE LATE DECEMBER BLIZZARD.

WINDS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN NYC AND COASTAL SECTIONS DURING

THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH

GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE

BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THEY

WILL COINCIDE WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO PRODUCE

TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WITH THE LATE DECEMBER STORM.

THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6

INCHES IS RUNNING HIGH...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH GREATER TOTALS

WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP...MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE

THIS WILL OCCUR. HWO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL...

AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES COULD BE RAISED OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM PASSES E OF THE AREA BY

MIDDAY WED...TROUGHING LAGGING BEHIND COULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO

PERSIST INTO WED AFTERNOON...WHILE A BLUSTERY NW WIND CONTINUES.-- End Changed Discussion --

850s look to be -8C for the area, don't have great graphics so they could be a cooler than that, but we are easily in that contour.

Surface temps are you would expect, are in the mid 20s, maybe lower 20s since this is mainly and overnight hit...

I would say we get decent ratios up here given those stats.

Thanks for the breakdown.

here is the 12z NAM for KSWF showing 1.19 of QPF thru 84 hrs. 850s just a touch warmer.

http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kswf.txt

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1123 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON THE STORM FOR LATE TUE INTO WED.

LATEST 12Z DATA CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON A TRACK WHICH WOULD HAVE A

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. HWO INDICATES

AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE.

HAVE INTRODUCED A MIX WITH RAIN ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI AS THE TRACK

HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WWD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE

MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE ONLY A PERIOD OF MIXING OR

CHANGEOVER...AS OPPOSED TO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT.

DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM STILL UNRESOLVED AS WELL. ECMWF IS MUCH

DEEPER...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS.

SUBTROPICAL TAP ALREADY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR...SO MODELS MAY BE

SLIGHTLY LOW ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

STORM EXITS LATE WED WITH FAIR WEATHER THRU FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN

CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LIGHT PCPN LATE

SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE

FCST.-- End Changed Discussion --

IMO this is another one heading for the snow bulls eye of the Hudson Valley and Catskills. I think when all is said and done LI has P-type issues. Maybe NYC stays all snow....

Agree, It's not etched in stone yet. More of a west shift will bring those p-type issues to LI but more love for us to the north and west of NYC.

Also, OKX getting a little stronger with their wording.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

436 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN

CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY VERY SIGNIFICANT

WINTER STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A

COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO LIKELY TRACK NEAR THE 40 NORTH/70 WEST

BENCHMARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR

STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN

CONNECTICUT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THEN IN THE

LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF

THIS STORM...AND EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE

STORM. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE

THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM LIKELY WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN

NEW YORK...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY FROM LATE

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE EVENT EAST OF

THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...AND LOWER NORTHWEST OF THE NEW YORK

CITY METRO AREA AT THIS TIME.

Got down to 10 last night. Now the eyes turn to the Tues-Wed event. Looks to be trending closer to the coast. Nice write-up by OKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

405 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY INCREASING...

LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS A

SOUTHERN/EASTERN OUTLIER...AND THE 9Z SREF A NORTHERN/WESTERN

OUTLIER WITH THE STORM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND

ECWMF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE STORM OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK

AT 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ECMWF JUST TO THE NW OF THE BENCHMARK AT 12Z

WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED FOR A ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. OTHER THAN THE SREF SOLUTION...THERE IS A

CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH THIS IDEA BEING

FOLLOWED.

THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN

AZ...IS WELL RESOLVED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS...AND IS HANDLED

FAIRLY SIMILARLY BY ALL MODELS. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE EQUATION

ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY

TONIGHT/SUNDAY IS STILL OVER THE NE PACIFIC...SO HOPEFULLY EITHER

THE 00Z OR 12Z SUNDAY BALLOON LAUNCHES WILL CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND

PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS A FAST/SHEARED OUTLIER WITH

THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM

RIDGING THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SHARPLY ENOUGH (THIS IS A

KNOWN GFS BIAS - NOT SHARPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ENOUGH). THE

RESULT IS A MORE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOLUTION IN THE GFS. THE OTHER

MODELS HANDLE THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BETTER...SO HAVE THE SETUP FOR

A LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING MORE THAN THE

GFS.

BASED ON THE ABOVE HAVE CHANCE POPS SW 1/2...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE

1/2 OF AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL

BUT FAR NW ZONES...WHERE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING GIVES PRUDENCE TO

HIGH END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TAPER POPS OFF FROM NW TO SE INTO

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY BEING DRY.

WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS AMOUNTS...THE POTENTIAL IS

INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE

REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN

PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION IS

CORRECT...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WHICH

WOULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE

FOR THIS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS LATTER IDEA IS THE

LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS

WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW - EMPHASIZING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS

IDEA IS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR NOW.

STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT GIVEN SOLID

CONSISTENCY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW

DAYS...AND THE ECMWF OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER

STORM...POSSIBLY A MAJOR ONE...IS INCREASING IN THE LATE

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.

My wife is off today said that she shoveled three times at home and each time it was a couple of inches. Of course this may not be all that accurate because what I tell my wife is 6" wouldn't show up as 6" on a standard ruler....

I will not challange her measurements. Sounds good to me. Still light snow as of 4pm and 5" down on the east side of the county.

Light stuff here on the east side of the county. I have 0.5" down so far. It started around 6:30am.

I've been watching you and HudsonValley21 post in the NYC threads and sometimes wonder why you guys bother to be perfectly honest. That's not a judgement on the two of you but by how you tend to get treated by some. I've said it before and I'll say it again now, I'm glad we broke out over here

It is nice to have our own thread. We have a couple of mets and other posters join in at times. Also, I don't mind posting in the other threads NYC, New England, etc. I have never had a problem. Again, it's great to have a home here in this thread.

We also might have ourselves some good ratios to boot.. 12:1 or maybe even 15:1

Could have higher than the 10:1 normal. That could make things up if the NAM is a bit overdone.