Torchageddon

2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Day 1 out, 10% sig tor slightly trimmed back 

And I was taken completely out of the 10% tor hatched, I expected as much (now in 2%). Not impossible to get a strong twister here in early April but with this new climate its a crack dream.

CAMs showing another round of storms at 8am, then a big line early afternoon. I'm getting more thunder and rain just off the heels of an impressive storm. The cold lake Huron did nothing to inhibit the first storm cluster. My DP is literally 2C, the heat is on, I'm cold, and there is convection erupting everywhere. Generally that doesn't happen.

Got an impressive t-storm considering I'm at 6C/1C 43F/34! Beats 70% of the storms I've had in the last 5 years. Blinding flashes and near house-rattlers at times. No hail or high winds though. It wasn't even the core of the leading cell. Reminds me a bit of Mar 13 2012 overnight storm with some tiny scraps of snow still on the ground. 

TWN finally put me in t-storms tomorrow early evening but strangely that same PMX blend they used lowered my high from 20C to 17C with even a chill to 15C!  97% I don't see any severe I reckon, TWN thinks the severe is isolated to extreme SW Ontario and for me only some hail and strong winds if that.

20 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Ahh makes sense. Wonder how far north the warm front will lift, underperforming to our west I read. Been busy and haven’t checked other guidance yet but good to know that HRRR is a sando tonight. 

When has the wf overperformed around these parts (ie pushed further north than expected)? I got nothing for that its always under. I was going to ask the same some time ago about slower fronts but this event sort of did that; bucked the trend. Sando?

My Weds still shows rain and 17C, considering I'm in the SPC contor for severe I'm waiting on that to change to chance of t-storms, then something more. Getting even a regular t-storm during the first 10 days of April here is lore, I can't recall any dates but the last storm during this month was 2021 I think but the last decent one was mid month 2009.

5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I’ve worked in emergency services long enough to know that when you roll up to multiple bystanders saying, “stay with me”, it’s not going to be a good scene. 

Is that indicative that they are in shock?

Just now, janetjanet998 said:

warning says PDS tornado

but radar indicated?

Fulton-Tazewell-Peoria-
237 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL FULTON...WEST CENTRAL TAZEWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN PEORIA
COUNTIES...

At 237 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Glasford, or 8 miles east of Canton, moving northeast at 55 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

Rainfall amounts imby ramped up now to 40 mm with heavy rain ongoing. Areas of extreme SON getting impressive radar returns like Ingersoll and Tilsonburg.

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

About doubled, both in terms of population and area. Also the Enhanced pushed well East all the way to Ohio. 

These threats that effect large areas with the mod/enh tend to be a bigger deal than a small high risk.

This is a wicked outlook, the geographical extent of both mod and enh are so large that the chances of this not being a memorable day are rapidly diminishing. Even if there is a failure mode somewhere you can still have all hell break loose in another spot.

Just caught the heaviest snowfall rate of the winter here, big fatties for minutes then nil from some LES chunks. Yeah it was more impressive than any rate during the fake blizz near Christmas IMBY. I get the feeling my heaviest rates all seem to be clustered at the end of Feb or in Mar for some reason. Not talking totals just rate of snow. Its -3C/27F.

TWN showing me at -14C/7F windchill at -18/-0.5F at 8am. My station showed a low of -11C. Warming up rapidly starting at 8:40 where I was getting 0.7C increases in 5 min intervals. High of 4C this afternoon so I expect to hear a lot of noises!

Bottom of the barrel day - overcast, bitterly cold where it was still -7C at 11am with a windchill of -14! My overnight will have a chill of -18 with full snow cover, 11 years ago that same early morning had a severe thunderstorm with hail and double digit positive temps  . My appreciation for it was abundant as we know days like today are possible.

This is far colder than mid-Feb here and colder than 80% of Jan. I dread winters just like this one when Spring is going to be the dumping ground for the real crap.

Was bracing for a crappy day with cold temps and overcast the whole day; instead its 80-90% blue skies and warmer by about a degree . What is most betwixing: hourlies/current still show overcast the rest of the day and temp -5C!!!  Keep circling that drain twn

23 years ago today it was 24C/75F here, parts of extreme SON had 28C. I have a foot or more of snowcover and a terrible ice layer on driveways now . At least its been blue skies again.

On 2/19/2023 at 3:42 PM, TheDreamTraveler said:

True I can't believe nobody over here is talking about it. It looks insanely impressive right now

Even more so that Freddy is back and may become the longest lasting tropical cyclone in recorded history; this definitely isn't a board that into the tropics.

I measured in different spots 8-10 cm or 4". Drifting was present of course. It was light-mod snow the heavy stuff didn't get here. This all occurred in 3 hours. I don't have a snowboard 

The vanishing returns are happening above me as I type this, probably at 8cm. Pressure was 993mb RH at 100%. Windows to the north are covered in droplets.

My first snow started 2 hours later than forecast (first time) and I'm in a heavier band of SN although the size of flakes are small. Not close to the amounts shown thus far which is what I expected.

It is so brutally cold out despite warming rapidly from overnight low of -8C to 1.8C, loathe it. Its hard for me to feel warm indoors even with the thermostat cranked. Last day of Feb was also the same.

Mod snow rates have started here, higher winds than the last event that gave me 10cm of snow. The precip started 2 hours faster than advertised; I can't remember when the cf or system ever was slower than the forecast.

3 hours ago, WaryWarren said:

I legit laughed harder than I ever have before on here when I saw this, to the point of tears!

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

quality

 

Now that is a Feb morning worth its salt. A photogenic one at 8am!?

Hilariously bad algorithm, the temp is off by 5C (its still -5.5C not -2C like it showed this morning) and nothing on radar anywhere to give me freezing drizzle unless it just generates in place. I see nothing of the sort on current radar. 60% POP? lol.

57 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Not to drive you guys nuts, but I want to commemorate one of the first times I've seen a blizzard warning for southern California, even the San Gabriel Mountains north of Burbank.

I was wondering why no one here was mentioning this historic warning, I just saw it:

Forecast to get 4.5", got 1" of fluff instead lol. Getting some sun breaks but presently snowing good. Highway 402 is getting crushed by a north band similar to that epic LES in Dec 2010.