Torchageddon

4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

I had zero Thunderstorms for May too.  The thunderstorm drought the last several years has been real.  I remember constant booming from storms when I was a kid.

I was just going to post that I had just that one afternoon a few weeks ago with many rumbles of thunder but no real t-storm for May here, I'm at 3-4 storms for 2022 with 1 occurring in both March and April. I'm curious if I can make it through this heat without a storm, crazy if I do. I had one flash and a few rumbles during the historic Ontario derecho 10 days ago.

Awesome day so far, I'm sitting at 32C/89F with the highest DP so far making it feel like 36C. Its very unstable with many roll clouds. I'm beaming after the terrible spring of clouds and non-heat like low 20s that still feels too cold. I must live in a climate like Phoenix has.

From last check there have been 0 tornado reports both on the 28th and 29th. Considering its the end of May, and both days were ENH that is bewildering.

7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I figured it would have given you Broyles email address.

I don't think I've laughed this hard on here in years, maybe ever 

I put a question in AndiSearch I never thought I'd get a clear answer to but was surprised and then dumbfounded:

14 hours ago, MNstorms said:

 

 

...SUMMARY...

   Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible early Monday morning
   from remnant storms on the nose of a strong LLJ in the SD/NE/IA/MN
   region.  This activity will likely dissipate during the morning as
   strong southerly flow advects richer low-level moisture northward
   into the Upper Midwest by midday.
  

What will facilitate the dissipating of those storms in the morning?

16 hours ago, frostfern said:

Yea.  They were slow movers.  Where it did rain it rained hard, but a lot of places missed out.  There wasn't a ton of thunder here, just occasional soft peals, 

I haven't heard this phrase, found out peal is a synonym of ring/clang.

TWN at the last min forecast storms both thurs and fri and I never had anything. I'm not complaining. Its cloudy today, mix of sun and clouds isn't present!

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Don't know if I've ever seen such a long narrow slight risk like this from the Mexico border to northern Maine

I've never seen one that long either, impressive.

A large MCS is hauling across SON this Sat:

This MCS is meaty, had a few flashes of lightning ironically when nothing was forecast this afternoon, but yet all those chances of strong storms yesterday into early this morning just nothing lol.

Storms forecast 3 separate times today, morning ones weren't even close, nothing at 7pm-10pm, then some close by storms just after 10 that somehow fizzled out fast despite thermos being decent. The CAMs which can't be trusted showed storms at 1am-7am at some point but backing off that now just showing light showers haha. I'm not complaining!

^ That went to this in 40 mins:

At one point my 7 day showed a min of 23C/73F on Fri which if that happened would be one of the most insane temp anomalies I've ever had. Of course its not going to verify but just to show how cartoonish my forecasts are now:

My min from one day to the next has also never been that different AFAIK.

I think this was the most gorgeous day out of the set, before the clouds and storms surrounded me by 3pm. Leaf out is complete, since the humidity rose there were more true spring scents that were missing til today. Just the right amount of wind. By noon which was the stunner there were the fluffy clouds covering the sky that I missed since last year. The way in which the forming clouds above covered the sun was like an eclipse. I heard thunder all afternoon into evening then the pulse glob finally reached me after 8pm.

Today also might have been the PMX's (the software used to generate TWN forecasts and displays data across Canada and the world) worst performing day by giving me not just totally wrong wx info for my location all day, but in fact absurd opposite trend data e.g. as my temp started falling it was showing it increasing! There was no bias that could account for the wrong data. I kept tabs on the hourly and it was flip-flopping all afternoon. To be fair the CAMs got pretty much everything wrong from an timing perspective - I checked 5. The finisher was just as I'm getting my downpour after being surrounded by storms all afternoon, it shows just overcast  This is worse than useless. I'm in total amazement just how wretched it is!!

I was playing around with a new AI search engine and this is what it spat out for tornado wind record:

There is a fandom wiki just for hypothetical tornadoes 

https://hypotheticaltornadoes.fandom.com/wiki/Hypothetical_Tornadoes_Wiki

Outlined: "2,662 articles and 73,513 edits edited by 39 friendly active users since March 2, 2012 - Complete with a discord server" 

I can't believe thousands have been made. Some are detailed with pics and sub-par Meteorological History diction.

Is this for real?

The feels like is using humidex I think not HI.

Station says 33C/91F but I think TWN is correct this time with 31C as expected. Warmest so early here? May 1911 may have something to say about it though. Can't have the windows open anymore, wild!

I noticed this:

Don't tell me! 

It was 22 years ago today that I experienced the worst storm, reminder that it lasted 5 hours and had everything except hail but was warned for such. I was going to post the radar images I found years ago on ISU's IEM but I can't find that portal. The images I saved are on an unknown storage device.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/search?q=interactive+radar

It all started from a fast moving cell that originated in Iowa that morning. It was a very intense cell during the course of its life.

Some of the fastest temp rises since I started tracking my backyard stats; 3.5C/6F increase in 30 mins. TWN still shows me at 14C lol. I'm at 20C/68F / 8C/46F - RH 50%

High increased to a staggering 31C and likely a touch of humidity. It will be over 30C for 5 hours. Overnight low an equally crazy 17C.

I did it, I got the first 30C reading of 2022 . This is the earliest since 2015 I believe when it happened May 1/2. My station likely running a touch too hot as well but not by more than 1C. I'm noticing objects around me indoors really starting to heat up fast. Sun is out as the clouds are rapidly dissipating (whew).

30C/86F / 10C/50F - RH 24-28%

Woke up to dense overcast, gloomy. Not forecast and now there is blow-off from the cells over N MI . In a turn of events, TWN forecast had a huge jump in my highs for today and the next 3 days showing 30C tomorrow (!) and more humidity. Hourly depicts 11am the temp to soar to 29 by 4pm and stay that way til dusk. I would normally be thrilled but this damn overcast. Next week they lowered my highs a tad when guidance was going to other way. Then with the overcast it shows currently mainly sunny. I should just disregard everything once more if they can't even get that right.

EDIT: I'm going up 1C every 5-10 mins now, last 1C was in 5 mins; the rocket is taking off  First 30C of 2022 in store?

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

How is midwestern Ontario in the mid 20's but Toronto can't even crack 20C?  

For my American friends, 20C is 68F. We haven't even hit that yet. 

I couldn't believe it so I checked; 19C still!  The east wind taketh away.

On 5/5/2022 at 10:18 AM, Torchageddon said:

When I checked my 7-day I was stunned to see this:

And today has also been changed to full sun no clouds! I'd happily trade more intense heat for something historic like this - I don't see this happening but its a major step in a positive direction . I had 7 days of no clouds during a period in June 2020 helped by less aircraft flying.

Too bad that was just a (predictable) fantasy. 15 Hrs of sun per day = pipe dream. I think last night the skies were partly obscured by wildfire smoke.

So far I'm at 27C/81F / 3C/37F - RH is very low at 20%. Still a stiff breeze from the south. Very good but 29C with this dewpoint and winds is perfect for me.

Updated 7-day, they lowered tomorrow's high to 22C!  I love these guys, busting too low by 4 today then lowers the start of the real deal . Changed the weekend to chance of storms both days.

I'm up to 25C/78F so far, that's 4C higher than what TWN is showing. This is the second day of summer here.

I can't find a cloud in this frame, this is rare.

On another note, my forecast is trending in the wrong direction  

I should've known TWN was full of it, yesterday it just clouded right up to a overcast after 4pm so a forecast for the day (hours really) completely busted and it wasn't even a close call. This morning was cloudy but it had partly cloudy in there anyways then became sunny.

My 14 day from said entity which is for entertainment only, shows no precip at all which is exceptionally rare for May here. It shows even for the back-half of the 14 days mostly sun. Seeing as how the engine can't even forecast clouds hours from now, I'm back to wanting the intense heat.

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

sorry about the brown dusty climo powerball

we're about to enter paradise mode

Good phrase, it had to happen after these last few months.

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Latest model suite is really suppressing the heat next week.  No more torch.

I'm a "the hotter the better" type guy but even I don't mind foregoing the heat if it means endless sun for 8-10 days, just as long as its comfy. I also have a feeling it would prevent a rubberband snap to the opposite as has been historically common. This GFS accumulated precip map is extraordinary:

When I checked my 7-day I was stunned to see this:

And today has also been changed to full sun no clouds! I'd happily trade more intense heat for something historic like this - I don't see this happening but its a major step in a positive direction . I had 7 days of no clouds during a period in June 2020 helped by less aircraft flying.