Torchageddon

The 2nd worst thunderstorm I've experienced was during the summer of 2003. It was just as the sun had set and had prolific lightning and high winds. I would like to figure out the date of that one so anyone from southern Ontario/eastern MI who remembers some good ones from that June-August give your take. I don't know how to search for t-storm events by region or where to start.

These archived radar images seem to come from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

7 hours ago, on_wx said:

I cant even imagine what that must have been like! That radar shot is wicked especially if that's 5 or so hours after it started. 2000 was a huge year for floods IIRC so not surprised by your accounts. I'll see what I can do about ordering some radar shots or loops but it wont be for a couple weeks. I'm really curious now!

The spot where I was is just to the right of the radar gap of the two radar circle ranges. I can get a lot of information about the type of storm system this was from the DTX/BUF radars - it was a eastward sliding line of storms that slowly sunk south (there was a day in July 2015 that was similar?). It was the perfect intersection of getting the most amount of rain and storms so that's how you get 5 hours without a break!

Ordering radar shots? What is that? I thought you could only order EC climate data that is certified.

7 hours ago, Chinook said:

I got it from:

https://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/ncei/radar

I don't think this involves Canadian data. Maybe the DTX/BUF/CLE radar data was used to maximum effectiveness to show this storm over Canada.

I don't remember seeing that page, but it looks familiar. Thanks. I know its purely US radar data, I've never seen any CAN radar from the event. Didn't even see or recall the radar on TV but did see the local weatherman state, "Batten down the hatches". I saw the EC severe thunderstorm warning scroll during 7:00 pm programming before the TV cut out.

6 hours ago, Chinook said:

Interestingly, May 9, 2000 was a severe weather outbreak for IN/OH/MI. There was a big squall line with a couple of tornadoes near Toledo. I remember it specifically. I was in Ann Arbor, watching The Weather Channel while hanging out with friends.

May 12 was a broad event spanning from Texas to Ontario, with tornadoes sprinkled all over per SPC reports. It sounds the same as the May 9 outbreak that your describing. May 12 22z there is a monster cell heading east over lake Huron and what looks to be a nice supercell near the thumb of MI.

10 minutes ago, Chinook said:

This is base reflectivity for May 12, 2000 (May 13, 2000, 0205z). Not sure if this is your storm. Getting the archived storm-relative velocity from Detroit or Buffalo may be a bigger task.

Where did you find that? I've only come across national US radar frames where some of it showed up from the Detroit/Buffalo radars. This is much higher res than those. At 10:05 pm the storm was winding down (location is cut off reflectivity wise from that scan). Anything from 22:30-23:00 UTC? I wish EC's radar archive went back to before 2000.

1 hour ago, on_wx said:

I was only 11 in 2000 and don't remember this. Was it hours long severe storms?

If you were in K-W at the time it wasn't as bad I think south. One of the few references to it online when I checked years ago was from a Niagara ON weather site where the storm eventually reached. It was a gradual build up with lots of lightning and the heavy rain probably started shortly after and didn't end. It wasn't until 7:15 pm roughly that it became dangerously severe. We put our shoes on to prepare to go down into the basement as the winds were becoming ridiculously strong and the ferocity was something I've never seen before or since. That lasted a few minutes and then a general powerful storm continued. There were tons of tree branches everywhere, some large. I'm sure backbuilding occurred with lots of lightning past that.

18 years ago right now I was experiencing the worst storm I've ever lived through. Fields became lakes, cars were being swept away in parking lots, 123 km/h wind gust reported in Mount Forest, every type of lightning except ball, 5 hours from 5:30 pm to 10:30 pm the storm continued. Extremely damaging straight line winds all over my region with spin-ups sprinkled in. Had to have used some amazing parameter potential locally with a multi-cluster configuration. Epic is an understatement. I'd love to have high-resolution radar and velocity data of it, and lightning maps. Nothing like that occurs anymore of course.

9 minutes ago, Chinook said:

This year seems to be following the pattern of some of the recent years, like 2013-2016. There seem to be less chaseable tornadoes, and less severe weather overall. I wonder if somehow this relates to the mid 80's (1983-1988 ??) when tornado numbers were low. I heard that Howie Bluestein and Chuck Doswell were bored, no storms to chase.

You missed the most wretched year (May tornadoes) of all: 2017. Last year was truly appalling from an interest standpoint. All those High Risks and nothing memorable - this is my opinion alone but when I think 2017 for tornadoes the only tornado that comes to mind is the Canton TX one. With the 80s being what they were, what large scale configuration led to it? I think the quality severe was probably up north in the GLs because all sorts of stories originate from the mid-late 80s in ON.

I really don't want to hear any hints of death ridge when it comes to the Plains in late May (Only over the GL ). I really need to take the advice of  cutting back how much I look at long range data, certainly not good to drive myself crazy. I'm going to look back to see what the mood was like at this time for May 2013 and 2016.

12 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Overnight deterministic NWP kind of killed the mood. However, Ensembles and Weeklies still look good. Pushing back a weather pattern that eventually happens is not uncommon.

Looking under the hood of both Ensembles and Weeklies, clusters show some excellent 5-day periods - even better than the means. Timing is slightly different on those clusters though. Takeaway is a flexible chase vacation is in great shape. Of course set dates may cause sweating.

To clarify, what time frame(s) for the deterministic NWP? Just the next 10 days or is that further long range? Mostly interested in the last 10 days of this month.

13 hours ago, bjc0303 said:

I know calling things a wedgefest is a meme and all, but the 00z euro dropped and absolute dime on the plains at hour 240 last night lol

Did the 00z euro just trash that goodness it showed 2 runs ago?

On 4/16/2018 at 11:19 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm moving somewhere warmer in the next few years. This weather this late in the season is a joke. 

Amen.

56 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

12z Euro trying to set-up another massive trough in the sub-forum next weekend as the PV drops down towards Hudson Bay along with a split flow pattern in the Pacific NW, lol. 

Please make it stop, I've had enough!

I love the perpetual trough especially coming from the Euro when this lame-ass April continues its historic misery. That is scary though. This is the most snowcover I've ever seen this far into April.

This is getting absurd. I thought 2016 and 2017 were a bit too boring but then 2018 came along and said "Hold my beer." What in the actual hell is this? My interest in weather is "gone" now because of it. What is a tornado outbreak? I forget what that is.

Aside from one interesting non-severe thunderstorm in September of last year, nothing since then has really been neat/noteworthy. This last winter had nothing of value whatsoever so I rather it was 2011-2012 instead because then at least there was less of it. I wish I was in a warm climate to miss it entirely because not a single lake effect band did anything except something moderate on Christmas Day. No winter storms. I absolutely hated this March we just had and ranks up there for most miserable. Now we're 1/3rd into April and so far this is the single worst April weather I've ever lived through. I'm stunned at the magnitude of atrociousness. It is a VERY bad sign when its being compared to 2014...I would sooner move to Arizona than experience anything like that again. My loathing of 2014 is unbridled and without limits. I should've moved to southern Arizona in late 2013.

I haven't followed weather closely due to the exceptional spell of mundane except maybe this small thing: the first 20ºC day. There is that contest with the UW weather station for when it first reaches that and seeing how long we go without getting over could be fun to follow. In at least 20 years its never gotten past April 19th but that sure will happen with this pattern. My concern is this Thursday where it will be the closest yet to 20ºC. Here's hoping that doesn't get wrecked too by Thursday's warmth spike. I thought in 2014 it would be May the way things were but there is always a sneaky spike to screw the "streak".

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

I wonder if there is software somewhere that shows when the next total solar eclipse will be and when the last one was.  (Like let's say if I click on a random small town it will show me those dates.)

 

I think I came across something on eclipsewise.com that does that. I don't know what kind because I quickly went through some sites yesterday.
 

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I saw 3 accidents in a one block stretch between Carbondale and Marion IL.   Crazy slow traffic.

Oh boy. Another thing is I noticed a lot of folks on ABC's coverage at least not always using their solar glasses to look at the partial eclipse...even the reporters and anchors (one woman was pulled off camera!). I've been reading that even those with the solar viewers in hand and on head got caught with their pants down for a few seconds. They would either not realize it or the desire over-rode their sense.

I saw the shadow sweep across the country on GOES-16 satellite using satsquatch.com/map/ and it was pretty neat. Even southern Ontario got dark.
 

I was at 71.2% and I noticed a change like a cooler breeze and it got dimmer. Its getting to normal brightness now. My solar eclipse glasses worked perfect and saw my first partial. That was pretty cool and makes me want totality even more now! Chile 2019!

I saw what Carbondale had...dang! Surprises in a few spots like Charleston SC. Now we see if there is a mass gridlock anywhere.
 

On August 18, 2017 at 10:13 PM, bowtie` said:

Yes. Especially seeing how I have a tooth or some other problem that has erupted this past week. I'll take my 90% and be fine with it. After all, it is not the end of the world, yet.

I'm sorry to hear that. Would this have been your first totality?
 

23 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

SC looks like crap again after some pretty encouraging runs yesterday. The GFS in particular has a nasty stratiform overcast with pretty much no hope of mitigating factors verbatim. I was planning on leaving this evening but I think I'll wait to see the overnight runs before starting the 12 hour drive... if the outlook gets much worse I may cut my losses and start planning for Chile in 22 months.

After coming to the realization I couldn't make it for the 2017 solar eclipse I started thinking about Chile in 2019...not waiting 7 years on a likely cloudy April day. I have no idea how an eclipse trip like Chile would be.
 

5 hours ago, bowtie` said:

http://www.predsci.com/corona/aug2017eclipse/home.php

Are you still going to that appointment on Monday before the eclipse?

For those sleeping in their car for 1 or some of the days of traveling, where would you park for the rest?

When I was looking past and future eclipse maps I noticed different spreads of band width of totality which I guess is when the moon is further away or closer. However some tracks at the mid-latitudes are really wide (300 miles or more) and I have no idea why. When looking at the database of all annular and total eclipses there would be mostly annular ones that are half circle (close to the poles) but a few where total eclipses that had the half circle! What's the reason?
 

16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Almost getting into the end of the GFS timeframe.  What's being advertised at the very end of tonight's 00z run would cause some concern rolling forward... pretty stout ridge but the placement is not ideal... could be vulnerable to convective concerns on the northern edges. Fortunately this is a 16 day prog.

Thought of that this afternoon, we can already see what systems could impact the eclipse on the 16th day of the run. So the first frame of a model showing eclipse weather (hour 384) will be tomorrows 12z run then? I don't see any talk about the Euro weekly ensembles which we know gives us a hint for pattern.
 

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I saw that the final few hotel rooms in Carbondale we're going for ~$500+ (I actually can't believe there was any vacancy).

I'm surprised those weren't going for over $1000. My feeling is Carbondale will be inundated with Chicago residents. I also heard that there were still spots in totality path with vacancies which totally floored me; and weren't overly expensive either. I would have been willing to drive 200 miles out of the path just for a room.

I'm unsure if this is uncouth, but what are the best communities online for this? I'm most interested in following those who are last minute planners and don't have a room, how they make out and what they experience in the journey.
 

On July 17, 2017 at 4:03 PM, Hoosier said:

5 weeks from today.

I hope we have weather like we're having around here today.  Not a cloud in the sky.

People like us are going to have an advantage over others.  Not only will we be checking forecasts, but we can also dig into the models to get a sense of the pattern and how things can go wrong.  For example, a progged MCS regime that ends up farther south than thought.

With the weather advantage, all of the eclipse experts have all the sophisticated weather resources you would want, there are special weather products coming just for the eclipse from various people including a met here in Canada. The average viewer may not use or know about the various sites that will start operational forecasts, but all the experts will. I have to keep reminding myself its not just weather systems and pulses, its plain clouds that might form which is far more insane to pinpoint to the exact spots within 1 minute intervals.
 

On July 17, 2017 at 5:59 PM, bowtie` said:

Nuts, I rescheduled a teeth cleaning today due to conflict with vacation. Just realized that they picked the 21st. Well it is for 10a.m. so I should be done before the fireworks start.

Even if your very close to the path of totality (in IN), there is no chance you will make it if you have an appointment at 10 am (even a 30 min drive). The traffic gridlock will be beyond anything you can envision. I think it'll be the worst in southern IL and MO but in places like OR the emergency management for that state who aren't blowing hot air, state if you live 2 hours outside the 70 mile path - leave SATURDAY evening to get there at 11 am MONDAY on the west coast. So a 2 hour drive would take 32-36 hours!!! No one really knows what's going to happen but once there was a 3 day traffic jam in China so its not impossible to get this kind of traffic.
 

On July 17, 2017 at 6:32 PM, Hoosier said:

Boo.  

Though if you just want to see how dark it can get during the day, I have read that cloudy conditions will make the surroundings even darker during an eclipse, especially if there's also clouds on the horizon.

I woke up one day with that question and read that if its a dense overcast during totality it will be so dark you won't know your way around. Can't say if that's true for certain.
 

I'm in agreement with that being storm of the year to this point, three High Risks in and this was on a day that wasn't one to watch. Its pretty much a law at this point that the memorable insane stuff tends to be when there is little to no hype nowadays and vice-versa. The risk outline from the Day 1 gave me a smirk, those tiny Sights circled spots where the severe cells are. When I checked the reports map and saw where the tornado was, I thought "Lazbuddie" and yep that location was in there lol. Did I read a place called Easter in the tornado warning?

1 hour ago, SmokeEater said:

You and a ton of chasers, lots of implosions on FB tonight.

Implosions?