Will - Rutgers

These dew points are absolutely stupid. 76/75.

Saw some pillowy towers going up around 10/11 AM and thought we were in for early thunderstorms. Nothing developed but the atmosphere seems pretty loaded.

I don't know about that, right now you can raft from the north end of PA to the south. Actually you could probably make it all the way to the ocean just using major highways.

Bye PA it was nice knowing you.

Oops.

Yeah you know I'm pretty OK not being hit by that much rain. Someone in PA is gonna end up with a foot of rain. Or maybe they already have, I didn't look up storm totals.

I'm pretty skeptical for heavy rains developing tonight east of that axis of precip in PA. Looks like some fairly significant dry air is backing up into us from the east. GOES 16 is an absolute trip, watching that cold front dig into the GOM is awesome. Those thunderstorms in southern LA have been screaming all day. It must be like 4"/hour rain under those cells, lol. And tons of lightning. Look at that moisture fetch running up the eastern seaboard. https://imgur.com/a/fwvO9kt

Several minutes of heavy rain in Piscataway, power is out.

I think the temps will moderate a bit with such strong moisture fetch, at least in the short term. You know, high dews, lots of clouds, tends to fight busted high temp forecasts. If we get a more cT regime vs mT then forget that. Hard for me to buy in to strong AN precip and strong AN temp in one long-term forecast. Would love to hear Forky's thoughts.

Here is my OBS. Cool, pretty dry, and windy. This is one of the nicest early October days we have had all summer. Can't wait for the deluge.

Dude are you OK? It is going to be roughly seasonable temps, high dew points, with a hung-up trough of some kind that will instigate a lot of precip chances. Nobody knows particulars beyond that, and even that might be wrong The models show different solutions. Take a chill pill.

I am stunned that turned out to be an actual funnel cloud. Looked pretty ragged, I don't know. I guess I see so few of them that I don't really know what they can look like.

Typically these mid-afternoon thunderstorms lead to amazing sunsets, watch for that if that's your thing.

Absolutely classic sea breeze front storms today. Case study.

Getting a second round of moderate rain in Piscataway. Frequent lightning. That is awful.

92/76 in Piscataway. Absurd conditions.

man this weather is boring gimme some snow or lightning

I'm going to guess it's still a Cat 4 and that the wind speed is lagging a little behind what I assume is a very rapid pressure drop. Details don't matter much when the core looks like that. Wobblier storm than Irma wouldn't you guys say?

I have no idea what is supposed to stop this thing from going full Irma at least until it runs over Puerto Rico. The structure is spectacular with a feeder band going directly into the inner eyewall, it's sitting over bathwater, no shear, strong outflow. Good night Johnboy.

Good thing they haven't rebuilt anything on Barbuda yet. JFC.

I guess this is a banter post, whatever. I think we are screwed. Really profoundly screwed. I won't hazard a guess at the long term implications of major AGW (perhaps there might even be benefits somehow realized from it), but there's major basic logistical issues from coastal areas being drowned. And it's hard to see how that's not going to be a central issue of climate change. And that's not even bringing in ecological disruption. Migration pattern disruption, proliferation of certain diseases, etc. Even before we ever get into the finer details of what will happen we have to get over displacing hundreds of millions, billions of people. That freaks me out.