DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Crazy to think that 31 looked just fine compared to those, does it look fine closer out into New Windsor?
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That’s sick, route 97 near Bachmans Mill this morning was a complete white out, plus there was all that snow blowing off the trees making matters worse. Sidenote, 97 stinks this morning both north and south of Westminster
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Gotcha, sounds like Blacks schoolhouse rd area, love driving back there and off stone, would be a scenic morning tomorrow to cruise.
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Just over 4 out here off Uniontown Rd, I’m assuming you’re up near the Mayberry/Silver Run area?
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Will Yoda's cries about this being I 70 north be valid, or will the warm front redeem itself like Happy Gilmore? Surprisingly, I have a decent success rate starting threads over the years.
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2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion
DDweatherman replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Surprise no one is mentioning the pretty well-defined hook echo near Stephens city -
Yeah the warm layer sometimes shows no mercy down that way, also potvin, like Jeremy?
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Definitely agree with that, not seeing those numbers over the bay.
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Nah that ICON snow map is always low compared to output, at least if you're talking about the TT one. Can be accurate at times, but underdone while all the others are overdone.
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At least the RGEM was a nice hit for us just now at 12z. Little more enerentic and 3-4 hours of what looks to be 1”/hr rates. Verbatim about 8-9”. Not buying that with timing but can’t hurt that it comes in hot and best rates are 6-10pm. Workable to get a 6” event out of that.
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Icon shaping up to be pretty good at 6z thru 60 hrs
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Certainly would seem like it to me
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The coastal from Saturday is in a better 50/50 location through 60 hours.
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Now the GFS is definitely coming south of 18z, I’m not missing that read. Look out folks cuz now it’s liable to come north
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Yeah, the fact that I just watched the icon come out and was comparing runs has shown where we are in this day in age. Sad story sometimes. Maybe it’ll do what your JMA did in 06.
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Hey man, you had me on the it’s going north boat based on the hour 36 map. From there, it was just flat lol
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You can at least see the UL maps and figure out where that read could come from. But with a weaker low it just didn’t matter.
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Obvious at the surface it was headed south, if you didn’t have access to that you’d think it would push the low a bit north. Certainly not complaining about it though.
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Sure is. I was actually attributing the lack of phasing as the possible cause for the other models running this further north than the ICON. However, the overall look at h5 is just flatter and de-amped vs the last few runs, so if that is the reason, it’s washed out by the weaker s/w.
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I should be more specific, it’s warmer at the surface and the R/S is a bit north thru 60. LP isn’t as amped so could be a wash. Deleted the other post to remove confusion. H5 is less amped, agreed.
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Thinking this will be the icon run that brings us back to reality for Sunday. Looks a bit warmer at 48 and the coastal for tomorrow night weaker in strength.
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Starts as snow on the order of a 1-3/2-4” deal for the northern tier mappy/psu land. Looked better early on, then jumped the low way northeast. Liked where it was the frame before over North central NC
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If this misses, it is going to feel like somewhat a painful one now that we have tasted what some good runs look like. ICON leading the way, but going to need the Euro to come south a bit to hold things up for this one. The icon is a good trend catcher and trended colder at 12z, but the other models look a bit more amped and warmer overall in this suite thus far.
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Yeah I'm definitely not complaining about the look the Euro just gave the CMD folk on 18z. A nice 4-7" for most DC northward.
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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast
DDweatherman replied to Bob Chill's topic in Mid Atlantic
The one in Westminster off Englar? Has to be that one right.
