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DDweatherman

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  1. DDweatherman
    Great share. The deform is just a big wildcard overall that we’re going to need to hone in on. But I did like the post someone made related to 2/10/10. Primary coming in south of where that trekked through the OV and transferred. If we see the low sit and spin off the Delmarva like many are showing (euro now included), people are going to put up numbers.
  2. DDweatherman
    Absolutely. Us northern tier folks are setting up for hopefully an easy foot+ if the CCB performs. Let’s keep those trends going. Put a 995 there for 24 hours with a vertically stacked and stalled low and were going to puke it up. You can’t take something like the RGEM verbatim but it’s evolution is similar to other models. The main difference is it maximized dynamics and FGEN our right over the S PA/ CMD.
  3. DDweatherman
    Agreed. I’m really liking the trends for our neck of the woods. We saw what lingering deform could do sitting over us in the 2/10/10 storm. Just dumped high ratio fluff for hours. Not afraid to say I’m thinking 12-18 for us with a chance at more if these trends continue. I mean, that’s still less than half what the RGEM gave us right?
  4. DDweatherman
    You’ve gotta like the trends with the low sitting right off Lewes/OC for 24 hours basically. Based on the UL features today across all the models I’m starting to get pretty optimistic about the CCB portion of the storm. That evolution really starts to bring the huge totals into play and we’ve seen a trend in that direction. Might continue into game time and finally deliver us the jack we’ve been waiting for.
  5. DDweatherman
    It would be hard to argue with 4-8" of cold, high ratio smoke regardless of what happens after and if it the coastal turns this into a MECS.
  6. DDweatherman
    I think up our way the rates might not be quite the same but we'll do okay with snow growth and accumulate pretty much everything that falls.
  7. DDweatherman
    Well @psuhoffmanthe Westminster crew might be getting fringed now according to 18z NAM. Good thing im down in White Marsh for poker night.
  8. DDweatherman
    I'm dead. Tried to sneak that one in there.
  9. DDweatherman
    Well sorry, I agree (it’s not discounting). I should have clarified he’s saying the verbatim output for 10-1 maps and face value is pretty unlikely! Sorry @high risk!
  10. DDweatherman
    I’m mobile, can you give me a visual?
  11. DDweatherman
    I’m thinking 2-3” on a corridor from MRB to FDK across up to about my yard in Westminster over to Bel Air. Localized jack somewhere right along 70 from a FDK to Mt. Airy to Mariottsville/Ellicott City Line.
  12. DDweatherman
    Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight.
  13. DDweatherman
    Radar ob, looking pretty good over SWVA/the OV.
  14. DDweatherman
    I didn’t want to log in just to say but yes it’s the NAVGEM formerly NOGAPS.
  15. DDweatherman
    Bring that over here! We’re snowing pretty good with the wind, but give me those dendrites and good snow growth!
  16. DDweatherman
    SN & 26 here
  17. DDweatherman
    Radar has filled overhead in Carroll county, and the goods have commenced yet again...
  18. DDweatherman
    Man I wish bob chill were here for this
  19. DDweatherman
    Cue Bingo card @NorthArlington101
  20. DDweatherman
    Starting to see what you’ve mentioned take shape on the ML maps. We’re still a few hours away on the surface reflection, but the radar has taken a more N/S orientation already.
  21. DDweatherman
    Yep starting to pick up and changeover to a majority snow here. The back edge has slowed w of HGR, but it’s still moving NE a bit. Cue @psuhoffmanto tell us where the lagging ULL energy is to spark off some good banding if it shall come.
  22. DDweatherman
    Don’t look now but there is a slight pivot to a more N/S Orientation on our radar, and snow is picking up here with occasional pingers mixed in.
  23. DDweatherman
    Check that, now back to snow mixed in down in Westminster even before the good returns move back in.
  24. DDweatherman
    With the changeover coming W to E just west of us now, I’d favor better thermals occurring. Does the current swath now basically pivot to the NW/SE orientation? Or are we refiring more Precip again.
  25. DDweatherman
    You’d think with almost all models hitting on that now at <6 hrs lead time, we should get a couple inches... and it would dump pretty good with the ULL.
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