SouthCoastMA

The Euro seems cooked, despite the aggregate stats on its accuracy. We'll let it play out though and see if it's onto something.

again, 12z was very bad. Better as in good? or better as in still a miss but closer?

RGEM stubbornly cold. wish it had more support

Meh. 18z AIFS a small tick east. Thought it looked slightly better at 500 early on

Hopefully more like 6z and not some sort of uninspiring compromise

I'm more interested in Euro AI. If that bumps NW Ill feel more confident. The 12z Euro was so far SE that it almost has to come back a bit. The AIGFS run was mildly alarming I guess, since it matches the GEFS mean

Then feel free to ride it. I'm not saying the data is is inaccurate overall, but it HAS sucked on several singular storms over the past month.

It's amazing how it pulls these scores given how bad it's been around this area, wrt storm placement in mid range since mid Jan

it was worse than 0z. pretty bad

18z will have it near the Delmarva then 0z will plug the plug again

EPS have flip flopped a ton as well. so hard to trust them.

Too much so, imo

Euro is dogshit, both the run and the model itself. It needs to prove it's good again before it can be trusted. Obviously you want it to show a hit rather than not, but almost unusable at this point. Just my recency bias

The AIFS had the low further south to start but ended up close to 6z..maybe very slight nudge like some said.

If I had to wager..not like the CMC but small improvement . Actually the 6z is similar to 12z GFS so any improvement or hold would be welcome