SouthCoastMA

That was a massive blue ball. IIRC it was a sub 960mb behemoth east of benchmark, which got the outer cape/ACK into warning criteria

To keep it simple, the the takeaway for me is the 12z EPS/Euro were a slight improvement over 6z. If it trends in opposite direction again for 18z/0z - then I'll start to be concerned about a true whiff. I'm also on the Cape, so theres that.

Sound effect flurries?

The CRAS was another one

Too early to whip out the SREFs?

I never understood those who punt 5 days out on storms that aren't far off from being huge. gotta be some sort of coping/defense mechanism. Let it play out a bit more

Very glancing blow here on Euro OP, but not worse than 6z at least. Let's keep it within striking distance

6z Euro was basically a whiff so probably a little

ECM-AI with small tick SE. Its well outside BM, and moves ENE. Lets get the trajectory on that more northerly.

One of the GEFS ensembles near the mean is a 958mb on the benchark. Would probably send a giant deform band far inland.

You just want to keep the storm on the table at this range. It's a good run for 120hr

A 968mb low SE of the benchmark would obliterate SE areas. Long way to go with this one. ICON was a whiff but probably an improvement over 6z.

Some weird dual low/barbell slingshot action going on with that. A lot to be sorted out still.

16" Sandwich MA

16" storm total