olafminesaw

Not exactly your classic strengthening TS look

5 minutes ago, AChilders said:

Average intensity seems down this morning across models, but also further south approach and swing into the gulf seem to be very plausible

Yep, the 6z Euro include with that trend. Pressure at landfall of 990-995 mb and strength of about 50 mph is my guess. A third landfall in Nova Scotia isn't out of the question as well, as per the GFS

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z Euro takes Invest 98L all of the way up the east coast first as a strong TC in FL followed by a transitioning nor'easter up to the NE US.

Boy do I love Septanuary

Stronger

All things considered, a pretty high degree of confidence in a strong system from the EPS. 

It's pretty simple really...the GFS is on crack. A fairly weak low tracking across Florida, into the gulf, bringing areas of heavy rain, makes the most sense.

GFS developed a TS only 84 hours out. May not be so far fetched this time

Recurves sharply OTS after a brush with Hispaniola 

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I think that the GFS has been smoking the crack pipe for days, but now we can add Happy Hour's effects to the mix.

Yuuup. Hooks it west into Florida while growing enormous. Because that makes sense 

Okay...maybe not. Might just be the smoothest EWRC I've ever seen: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_19E/web/displayGifsBy12hr_03.html

Hot tower!

42 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Yes. There may also be an outer band consolidating into an outer eyewall, but it apparently is not organized enough to prevent Rosslyn's small eyewall from continued rapid intensification. Most likely a Cat 4, perhaps upper Cat 4 at the moment with an impressive satellite presentation. Inevitably there will be weakening prior to landfall either due to structural changes or increasing shear but at least for the moment, Rosslyn is a beast.

Seems like it's probably peaked and the EWRC should begin to weaken it soon

From 38 to 58 in 3 hours. Feels good outside! Jacket in the morning, t-shirt in the afternoon kind of weather is fantastic.

On 10/18/2022 at 5:22 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Jaw-dropping stat: DCA has not hit freezing in the month of October since 1992!

Even more shocking, average first freeze this century at DCA of November 21st, is only 3 days before that of Tallahassee Fl

On 10/18/2022 at 10:51 AM, GaWx said:

  This was by a good margin for that long of a period the smallest % of Octobers without a freeze since records there started. Also, the period 2016-21 had no freeze. This six year no freeze October streak is the longest there on record as it beat the old record of four set twice. Actually, 2016-21 October coldest is 35. The prior longest 35+ streak for October coldest was only three.

 In addition, all three of 2019-21 had their Oct coldest of 40+. Prior to 2019, there were a mere three Octobers back to 1903 with a coldest of 40+: 2004, 1949, and 1919! This is to me the most telling record.

 So, to those with more knowledge about KGSO, what is the most likely main reason for this highly anomalous warm streak in October? Is it GW, is it a change of the station, itself, or is it increased heat island effect? After looking at KRDU and KFAY, I think it is some combination as opposed to just from GW.

Edit: Prior to 1990, only 33 of 87 (38%) Octobers had no freeze. Since 1990, 21 of 32 (66%) had no freeze!

I suspect equal parts GW, and urban hear Island. Check out this time lapse of development over the past 40 years:

https://earthengine.google.com/timelapse#v=36.08865,-79.93213,12.106,latLng&t=3.63&ps=50&bt=19840101&et=20201231&startDwell=0&endDwell=0

Going back to 1990, 11 years had October freezes in Greensboro. Of those years, one had December snow, more than a trace (9%), (1" in 1993). 10 years out of 31 had snow more than a trace overall (32%) so years without an October freeze had snowfall 41% of the time and with a freeze 9% of the time. A rather small sample size, but an interesting inverse correlation.

14 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

That time of year when East Pac tropics can affect our sensible weather.  The GEFS means are not showing a flood event for Texas but the 10/70 lemon/cherry does help the drought.  Should be 90E in a day or three.

1994, A big year for flooding! Alberto dropped 25"+ of rain on parts of  Georgia.

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

And then Indian Summer

 

Thankfully, that still means we probably don't even break 80 degrees. Then the GEFS brings back below normal temps for the end of October.

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Pressure now below 1000 mb. CoC is now trying to hide inside the convection

Convection Is being blown away from the center again, seems to be dealing with some pretty significant shear. The NHC forecast of 45 mph pre-landfall, may be too strong.

Recon just took off for our new invest. We'll find out in a couple hours whether this is a TC, or a glorified squall line 

Finally wrapping convection around the center. Should be off to the races

Looks like the core starting to organize, but may be a while before we see anything like an eyewall 

Convection go boom

LLC racing off to the NW, now fully exposed