olafminesaw

Already a nasty looking warned cell in central Louisiana

BWI: 8.7"

IAD: 9.9"

DCA: 6.4"

RIC: 6.3"

SBY: 5.8"

Hmmm

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The 12z GFS made a *slight* shift towards a stormier outcome for Black Friday, lol.

Just a casual 971 mb low...

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

up and over 5 feet. will measure next at 9.

Even with the inevitable movement of the band north (and again back south), you should get another 12-18" through Sunday 

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The band is still producing waterspouts:
https://twitter.com/SimonStormRider/status/1593603532959191040/photo/1

That's wild. Truth stranger than fiction. I can picture the trailer for: Sharknado 14, lake effect....

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

33.9" as of 8:20 am

If the HRRR is to be believed, you will double that by the end of the storm 

Seems based on the GEFS & EPS, the pattern flips to torch right around the 1st of December. Right on schedule!

Pretty impressive low at GSO of 24. It was 27 at 4:30 and 4:45 and dropped 3 degrees and back up in those 15 minutes. Noticeable cold pockets north of the airport as well on my way to work this morning, about 3-4 degrees colder than near the airport.

Nearly 6" of QPF!

Tornado watch tomorrow perhaps 

I feel like this is probably not quite right...

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

While I agree I don’t see CAT 3 on this; the Gulf Stream here is only 1-10 miles off shore  from West Palm to Ft Pierce so I can see it strengthen to possibly a CAT 2

The gulf stream isn't really any warmer than the water Nicole is currently traversing. The warmest waters it will cross will be just before reaching the Bahamas 

I kept wondering why the advisory times are one hour earlier, took me forever to figure out why... Hurricanes after fall back are not the norm apparently 

The 12zHAFS nailed the evolution today if you flip through the IR frames. Like, shocking really. Gets convection ramping up again around midnight 

Recon finds a pressure of 980 mb or so and supports winds of 55-60 kts

45 kt surface winds recorded 200 miles or so West of the center (from the upper level recon flight), this thing is really starting to expand

Indeed, looks pretty darn good all of a sudden 

21 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

HWRF has landfall near the Space Coast as a 963 mb tropical storm.

It seems like regardless of how much the pressure drops, it's maxing out between 60-75 mph. Any pressure drops below 980 are primarily expanding the wind field 

Seems Nicole is going to need to get down to around 980-85 mb to reach hurricane strength. Of course this will be higher impact than a typical cat 1 due to it's size

Certainly a tight core

36 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

A little temperature increase when going over the center, maybe an attempt to form an inner core despite the mid satellite presentation.


.

The HWRF doesn't begin to build a tropic core until this evening. I presume this will occur once Nicole begins to turn back to the south over warmer water, as long as dry air doesn't inhibit development 

The 4 pm discussion said it's still moving westward. I will say, watching the LLC in the short-term can be misleading, but still seems odd

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little before 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC position for 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different?

It appears another recon flight will be in the storm in 4-5 hours. It will be interesting to see if the LLC continues to move south or moves back to the W or NW in that timeframe.

The Euro seems to really broaden the wind-field, without increasing max wind speed. Has a massive area of 35-45 mph winds, but probably would be a 50 mph landfall