mimillman
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Everything posted by mimillman
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Not sure what happened with the SREFs but 9z took a massive step towards an amped solution. 8” mean at ORD
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With the last event certainly better than the hi res guidance, and the GFS, which were atrocious
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I think you misunderstood. I think around 5”, perhaps locally more for where the FGEN sets up, and 2-5” for the area outside of that. Ultimately it’s not that different from the NWS map just posted, just slightly lower totals.
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I agree the FGEN placement is key for areas north and would me the difference between 2” and 5”, maybe slightly more locally. Hoping for anything else is not prudent. I almost consider the lake effect a different event considering it will be happening 12+ hours later and I’m not sure how LOT handles that. Perhaps WWA to lake effect snow advisory?
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I’m thinking more 2-5” from synoptic snows, but I could see the lake effect pushing us over 6 if we get lucky.
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3z SREF came in weaker. I don’t think this is happening. Too much consensus from the globals and too much known amped bias from the hi res.
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Hey not bad for you too! The lake effect is the bright spot for us both IMO.
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Perhaps for you. Not for Chicago.
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Winter started for Chicago last Saturday too lol
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Globals all the way. I’ll tsle my 3” and LE and run
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This will be a winter to remember for central Illinois/Indiana/Missouri. More snow than most northern cities with 2x their annual norms
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Globals don’t like it tonight. I’d go with them over the NAM tbh
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Depending on how the rest of the suite comes in, we should see watches posted with the morning AFDs
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SREF plume continues to come in good. 21z mean at ORD is 7”
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I think combo of the ridge out west + PV orientation. Seems to be the theme
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PV orientation slightly further east allows the ridge out west to push our vortmax along...and further south.
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I don’t recall seeing any LE headlines in Cook for a couple years. Wonder if this weekend changes that.
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Eh certainly looked that way at 850 too. At 500 I see it was a bit north.
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The 12z GFS was south of the 6z up until hour 66, at which point SLP was northeast of the 6z run.
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The progression of SLP on the FV3 is exceptionally confusing.
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Nice lake effect signal for NE IL on Saturday night
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Southern stream faster at H5. 12z GFS should come south. Edit: Ends up in a similar spot at 6z at hour 66 though slightly faster.
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12z NAM good for a few inches at least across much of the sub
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I don’t think that’s the case.
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I hate spring. If winter could live forever I’d wish it upon us all
