mimillman
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Everything posted by mimillman
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Epic
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God this thing has so much potential. GFS north again.
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Euro was pretty close to a neutral tilt, just a tad too late.
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Me me, that was me!
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Good jog northwest. Great set up for lake enhancement/lake effect. 1045+mb high incoming. Great ratios. I’m getting ahead of myself, but you gotta love this.
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Just looking at 500, 18z GFS should come north
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??
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Worth noting this another Saturday day event
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Euro ensembles are solid. North of the OP. Edit: would be hard pressed to find ensemble runs with such widespread 6”+ amounts.
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Point is, you can’t bake a cake without the ingredients. Even if it fizzles out because the energy is unimpressive, for the 1st time this winter I feel like we have all of the other ingredients.
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Ratios save areas to the north. Dry air aloft not as big of an issue.
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Euro shunted good deal south of 00z. Still, it looks decent for most of the sub forum especially factoring in higher ratios. One big difference I’ve noticed is the Euro actually closing off the low at 500mb. Trough axis tries to go neutral but is just a tad too late, perhaps due to a slightly more southwestern positioning of the PV this run. It’s very close and needs to be watched.
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Euro good deal stronger with 1st wave. GFS could be onto something
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It’s a solid hit for a good chunk of us. Would take that and run
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Ukie goes from central Arkansas to western Virginia between hours 120-144
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I may be wrong here but I think the set up would favor suppression over a GGEM like solution?
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PV looks like it took a decent jog southwest on this run.
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First system north and amped again on the GFS. Actually gets some snow up to Chicago on this run. We’ll see how it plays out downstream.
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That Euro run.... Dare I say the amount of snow and cold air after has shades of Jan 4-5 2014?
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GGEM looked good but then turns this into some sort of elaborate cold front. The LE signal nonetheless is strong here and as Hoosier was mentioning earlier, I think Milwaukee to northern Indiana should be monitoring closely
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MSLP further south and also faster. Still a glob of precip to the north. Decent hit for the sub forum, St Louis cashes in again. Lake effect set up is good for the western shore
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We were discussing earlier. It’s impact as a stronger system would lead to less amplified heights for the main show, favoring a southern solution. There are other factors in play though, we’ll see.
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00z GFS more amped with 1st wave again. High pressure in Canada slightly less strong though
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This is the main headline on weather.com https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-01-13-snow-ice-arctic-cold-rockies-central-east-late-week
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I have a good feeling about this one, which is rare for me
