mimillman

Was just about to say. Nevertheless this storm looks incredible for the entire eastern half of the country.

Euro handled the most recent storm better than the god awful GFS. The FV3 was probably best. FWIW though, the FV3 looks most similar to the GFS at hour 120

Chicago?!?

Fighting some dry air now in these parts. I’m not worried, radar looks good. Should continue to be a snowy night.

I know it’s garbage time, but the 18z GFS puts down 6-12” across the sub forum next weekend, followed by sub zero temperatures. Now this, I like.

Lol it’s the first global to run of the suite man, gotta get my fix

I’m sorry I disagree. Even just looking back at old ECMWF runs now, it didn’t really start showing the higher amounts until 12z yesterday, maybe you could argue 00z. Sure the GGEM was amped, but that’s a typical bias of that model so I was discounting some of those runs. The FV3 admittedly did well. There was enough short term guidance and the good ol’ OP GFS suggesting this would not happen. I don’t think many of us were expecting the push this far north with respectable totals. Therefore for me personally, this is an overperformer.

I would say the system generally overperformed expectations in our neck of the woods. The “quality” guidance didn’t really show much for the city and north until yesterday. Cook county didn’t even have an advisory posted. Could have easily gone the other way.

Overperformer underway in the metro, finally!

FWIW dewpoints here aren’t bad, hovering just under 20 degrees, same as KSPI

Another swing and a miss for downtown Chicago and points just south. We’re in the sweet spot of the sub forum this year that gets missed to our north and missed to our south with the two biggest events of the season. If we can muster 2” with this system (which is looking unlikely), we would tie our season high. Perhaps the one behind this late next weekend can bring us some love.

I say 1.3” at MDW

Actually backed off on the northern edge, but that’s to be expected as models consolidate.

Downtown Chicago and northern Indiana are probably at less than that. ORD gives us a bad name.

Indeed. That GFS run looked most promising 3rd decade

NAM crash to reality begins

Crack

Nothing like Cody Parkey to top off an atrocious winter. ****

I don’t really understand. The upcoming pattern in the next 10 days doesn’t scream cold to me, it just looks seasonal. Maybe low to mid 30s for highs seems cold compared to this absolutely atrocious winter so far, but in the heart of January it’s seasonal. The upcoming pattern looks good if you live in upstate Michigan/GTA/New York for clipper action, but for anyone south or west of there, here’s to praying for February.

“Winter is going to be epic” is what sells unfortunately. And the worst part is the banter drives up the price of your heat, only to have December at +10 departures across the upper Midwest

Agree, definitely going to go for a nice run outside. The Chicago suburbs were saved by November. The city, not so much. The big storm in November yielded about 2” downtown.

The 00z Euro...it's just so so so bad. This is incredibly demoralizing.

Rain still mixing in with snow here. Ground still completely bare, not even a trace in the city.

Torrential rain continues

I’m right on the lake just south of the river. We’ve gotten use to these outcomes though for early season storms. Just gotta hope we can nickel and dime it back with minor lake effect later in the season.