mimillman

Obligatory 606 pic

Evanston getting it

12z euro liking eastern cook

Proper snowglobe action

HRRR looking real close

Looks like gonna crank in a bit

Saw tiny bits of ice forming on the river by my office this morning which is exceptionally rare

Think you’re reading things too verbatim and not fully appreciating the run to run

Im not going to make GIFs but 3km NAM and HRRR both have trended towards a more significant front end push with slightly higher residence time over NE IL and have trended further west with the wobble of the band on Saturday. ECMWF has also subtly been trending this way though not hi-res.

Not hating these hi res trends for NE IL

Con: it’s the GFS

I’m confused by the two headlines

Got asked today if a “cyclone bomb” was going to hit the east coast

Time for the crazy HRRR runs

GGEM:

I think reasonable, my plan is to road trip on Saturday/Sunday to where band sets up better residence time

Lake effect event getting thread worthy for SE WI - NW IN

Whoever popularized the term "bomb cyclone" for the media to describe every nor’easter deserves a special place in hell

I’ve been commenting about it in the medium range thread until we get a bit closer

The main focus during the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend remains on the potential for another round of accumulating lake effect snow (potentially a long-duration event) as another sprawling ~1050 mb arctic high descends out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba late Thursday night into Friday. As this occurs, 850 mb temperatures are forecast to drop to around minus 20 C, which in turn will result in building inversion heights over the lake. LES parameters certainly look sufficient to support periods of more intense lake effect snow, with lake- induced ELs nearing 9-10 kft at times, especially through Friday with 850 mb temps forecast to warm through Saturday. Initial LES looks to develop late Thursday night into early Friday morning. It`s possible that this initial activity has a somewhat difficult time organizing given some degree of wind shear in the boundary layer as a synoptic scale trough pivots southwest out of the Upper Great Lakes. By later Friday night and Saturday, however, guidance depicts generally lessening shear as the bulk of the atmospheric flow shifts northeasterly. Guidance then depicts LES organizing into a single dominant band during this time as low-level convergence maximizes down the long axis of the lake. During this time, ELs are forecast to fall a bit as 850 mb temps warm, which may have a bit of a modulating effect on LES intensity. That said, given the progged increasing convergence, even 6-7 kft ELs will be more than sufficient to support periods of heavier snowfall. At this point, it remains too early to hone in on specifics, but guidance trends continue towards an impactful period of lake effect snow in our area, including Chicago, parts of NE and east-central Illinois, and NW Indiana from late Thursday night through Saturday night, and possibly even through Sunday. Guidance at this time does indicate the potential for quite a bit of band wobbling, which in turn could limit residence times and overall totals, but a more quasistationary north-south oriented band is also advertised (CMC, UKMET for example). Temperatures in the teens and single digits will have the potential to exacerbate impacts due to a very light/fluffy snow and lessened effectiveness of road treatments.

I thought this set up typically favors N Central IN

Bro don’t you live in Florida

Pats/broncos snow should cheer you up

Starting to wind down as the LE rotates into southern Cook. I wasn’t here for the thanksgiving weekend storm so this is definitely a treat. Plus seeing the split band LE this side of the lake was a big highlight

In Chicago they plow the 606 before the roads. And yes I saw 4 runners