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HIPPYVALLEY
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Posts posted by HIPPYVALLEY
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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:
Do you have any maps of January 23, 2005? Still in my top 3 behind 2/78 and 4/97. Over 30" in Cambridge/Somerville death banding. Entire cars covered up and down snow choked streets. Glad I was still in Boston for that one because iirc W MA did not do nearly as well. I just remember people walking around monday morning shaking their heads at how they would dig their vehicles out that had been buried by plows and drifting. Sidewalks in the city were a complete disaster and some side streets were not plowed for hours after the last flakes.
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I went through that March firehose event in 2013. Fun thread. I definitely was bearish on the 6th for my area, but funny how that changed in 24 hrs. Funny looking back at it....I must have still been jaded from 2011-Jan 2013. It was a tough call on the coast, but the firehose still should have been respected. Tough to get a sh*tty event on the coast with good cold at 925mb and a wicked deep layer fetch from the east.
I think we had about 3" here while parts of ORH Co. 25mi from here had over 20". Toaster bath.
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I'll be camping at 2000' on the East Slope of the Berks tomorrow night with no light pollution, just hoping the clouds aren't rolling in.
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you live in spfd or northampton???? its remarkably real for us folk!!! its not overplayed at all in fact its like THE BIG PINK ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM that very few are brave enough to talk about.
Springfield to Holyoke over to S. Hadley/Amherst can be pretty bad sometimes but the rest of the Valley does fine. Greenfield to Brattleboro is usually ok and even the outskirts of Northampton ends up doing better than those areas.
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All the more reason to have been more conservative back that way. Too much love for the Euro this time around. People I think forget one of the things that makes it so great is its consistency. And even when it's wrong, it can be slow to correct....which is unfortunately what happened here. When it started making small shifts east while several other models had already made larger jumps east, that should've been a clue.
Sent from my iPhone
Didn't see this posted yet, good read.
http://thevane.gawker.com/why-nycs-historic-blizzard-didnt-live-up-to-the-hype-1681962448
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i agree its def 10 to 1 or less....still though not even half of the lowest amounts on box map.....i never bought 20 inch plus forecasts but i thought we were good for 12 to 15 or so.
Yeah, biggest forecast fail I've ever had but still a net gain so gotta' appreciate it and move on.
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How much did you measure, Chris?
It's predominately qpf, though. That said, we're now hiavng the best snow of the storm--at least since 5:00a.m. If it keeps up a while this could get us over the hump to reach advisory level.
4", may not make warning criteria here.
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I think one of the reasons totals are reduced out here is poor snow growth not just qpf issues. Baking powder, I just shoveled and it's surprisingly heavy.
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in defense , there were some posters that knew something wasnt right and wondered what okx was seeing that they werent....despite all their epic events over the past few years i feel bad for them....it really sucks and were talking a huge area from albany to ttn and phl to hfd/spfd up to greenfield that was promised warning to crippling snowfall amounts
Yeah, kind of unfair, the radio DJ's are having a field day taking calls from people berating the weathermen. Same reactions on FB.
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You can see that eastern lobe clear as day on the water vapor, I have no doubt there's at least a kink under it.
Why would NWS still be sticking to their guns on totals?
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cloud tops near nj cooling rapidly
Just getting going. I can't imagine BOX is risking busting badly in their 11pm update for W MA. Obviously riding the stall into the sunset:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
...A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE
AREA MAINLY TONIGHT LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
MAZ002>004-008>011-026-271215-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150128T0600Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...
NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...AYER
1109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS
INCLUDES THE CITES AND TOWNS OF CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...
NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD AND AYER.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 18 TO 24 INCHES...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
AN HOUR AT TIMES.
* TIMING...WHILE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN WHITE-OUT/
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. TRAVEL
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE-THREATENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH.
THE HEIGHT OF THE WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.
ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED! THIS IS A SERIOUS LIFE-
THREATENING STORM!
&&
$$
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GFS big time east shift
You are going to see some awesome conditions no matter what happens. Good on you for making a road trip.
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I'm not sure what would suck more about having the Euro bust badly, greatly reduced totals from this storm or shattered confidence in the model going forward for the rest of the winter. lol
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I think the euro is going to cave harder than we think tonight.
Lose the stall?
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Upton gradually shifted their map to the east, still showing insane amounts.
Exactly. You'll have some fun in the snow tomorrow.
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RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side.
But we got a long ways to go.
I'm not sure people grasp that. I was not even slated for more than -SN until midnight and it looks like what's pivoting in will be at or just ahead of that time frame. We'll see where it goes from there but current obs can sometimes deceive folks from the overall modeled solutions.
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Albany looks to be in some decent returns right now while lesser echoes are East of there.
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21F less than inch on the ground in Mendon. 20 miles SE of Worcester and it's just about 7PM.... When does this start?
I would say it has started.
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I would be laughing so hard--the continuation of the 2014-15 winter.
Most of the general public wouldn't be. There would be lynch mobs out for the mets. lol
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If the Euro and NAM are in agreement, as a met, you don't want to go against them.
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the 21z HRR on NCEP is significantly more west with precip shield than the 20z
Some of us have remained unperturbed today by the paranoid talk of WNE being screwed etc.
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L-O-V-I-N-G I-T
Wow, upping our totals rather than lowering. What East trend? lol
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RPM completely disagree's with Euro. Interesting that some of there other hires models have also gone significantly East. If the RPM's right I only get 8", if the Euro is right 18-20"... Can't believe such a big difference at this late stage.
What are the Hires models picking up ???!!??
They should be able to handle convective feedback right?
Initialization errors?
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GFS qpf totals will bring frowns to lots of faces. Still a decent storm.
Ride the EC.
snowing lightly at the Pit.
16.4/6
BOX not buying. They are riding a different horse:
OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH
OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN
QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/
WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND
THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
They're map has not updated from this morning but my 4:30 zone forecast is still 18-24"
March 12/13/14 Blizzard/Winter Storm/WWA etc
in New England
Posted
Interesting, that stuff is either isolated or under the beam.
34F overcast but looks like a bit coming up from the S.