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HIPPYVALLEY

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Posts posted by HIPPYVALLEY

  1. 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

     

    Do you have any maps of January 23, 2005?  Still in my top 3 behind 2/78 and 4/97.  Over 30" in Cambridge/Somerville death banding.  Entire cars covered up and down snow choked streets.  Glad I was still in Boston for that one because iirc W MA did not do nearly as well.  I just remember people walking around monday morning shaking their heads at how they would dig their vehicles out that had been buried by plows and drifting.  Sidewalks in the city were a complete disaster and some side streets were not plowed for hours after the last flakes.

  2. I went through that March firehose event in 2013. Fun thread. I definitely was bearish on the 6th for my area, but funny how that changed in 24 hrs. Funny looking back at it....I must have still been jaded from 2011-Jan 2013. It was a tough call on the coast, but the firehose still should have been respected. Tough to get a sh*tty event on the coast with good cold at 925mb and a wicked deep layer fetch from the east.

    I think we had about 3" here while parts of ORH Co. 25mi from here had over 20". Toaster bath.

  3. you live in spfd or northampton???? its remarkably real for us folk!!! its not overplayed at all in fact its like THE BIG PINK ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM that very few are brave enough to talk about.

     

    Springfield to Holyoke over to S. Hadley/Amherst can be pretty bad sometimes but the rest of the Valley does fine.  Greenfield to Brattleboro is usually ok and even the outskirts of Northampton ends up doing better than those areas.

  4. All the more reason to have been more conservative back that way. Too much love for the Euro this time around. People I think forget one of the things that makes it so great is its consistency. And even when it's wrong, it can be slow to correct....which is unfortunately what happened here. When it started making small shifts east while several other models had already made larger jumps east, that should've been a clue.

    Sent from my iPhone

     

    Didn't see this posted yet, good read.

     

     

    http://thevane.gawker.com/why-nycs-historic-blizzard-didnt-live-up-to-the-hype-1681962448

  5. in defense , there were some posters that knew something wasnt right and wondered what okx was seeing that they werent....despite all their epic events over the past few years i feel bad for them....it really sucks and were talking a huge area from albany to ttn and phl to hfd/spfd up to greenfield that was promised warning to crippling snowfall amounts

    Yeah, kind of unfair, the radio DJ's are having a field day taking calls from people berating the weathermen. Same reactions on FB.

  6. cloud tops near nj cooling rapidly

    Just getting going. I can't imagine BOX is risking busting badly in their 11pm update for W MA. Obviously riding the stall into the sunset:

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

    1109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

    ...A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE

    AREA MAINLY TONIGHT LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

    MAZ002>004-008>011-026-271215-

    /O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150128T0600Z/

    WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-

    WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-

    EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-

    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...

    BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...

    NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...AYER

    1109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

    ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST

    WEDNESDAY...

    * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS

    INCLUDES THE CITES AND TOWNS OF CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...

    BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...

    NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD AND AYER.

    * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND

    DRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

    * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 18 TO 24 INCHES...

    WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES

    AN HOUR AT TIMES.

    * TIMING...WHILE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY

    WEDNESDAY...THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY

    AFTERNOON.

    * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN WHITE-OUT/

    BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. TRAVEL

    WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE-THREATENING

    ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

    * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH.

    THE HEIGHT OF THE WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

    * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE

    INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE

    INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL

    TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR

    UNTREATED SURFACES.

    ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED! THIS IS A SERIOUS LIFE-

    THREATENING STORM!

    &&

    $$

  7. RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side.

     

    But we got a long ways to go.

     

    I'm not sure people grasp that.  I was not even slated for more than -SN until midnight and it looks like what's pivoting in will be at or just ahead of that time frame. We'll see where it goes from there but current obs can sometimes deceive folks from the overall modeled solutions. 

  8. RPM completely disagree's with Euro. Interesting that some of there other hires models have also gone significantly East. If the RPM's right I only get 8", if the Euro is right 18-20"... Can't believe such a big difference at this late stage. 

     

    What are the Hires models picking up ???!!??

     

    They should be able to handle convective feedback right?

    Initialization errors?

  9. GFS qpf totals will bring frowns to lots of faces.  Still a decent storm.

     

    Ride the EC.

     

    snowing lightly at the Pit.

     

    16.4/6

     

     

    BOX not buying.  They are riding a different horse:

     

    OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH

    OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN

    QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/

    WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS

    THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND

    THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

     

    They're map has not updated from this morning but my 4:30 zone forecast is still 18-24"

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